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NTF Statement on the Government Shutdown
The National Turkey Federation (NTF) released the following statement on the United States government shutdown: “Mexico and Canada are key export markets for the U.S. turkey industry. The USMCA will help to ensure that America’s turkey growers and processors have fair access to these markets and takes important steps to stabilize the U.S.’s trade relationship with our neighbors. The agreement will result in a 29 percent increase in U.S. exports to Canada. Robust export markets are vital in growing the turkey industry. When given the chance to compete head-to-head on price and quality, U.S. turkey producers have shown their ability to respond in providing the world with wholesome, delicious turkey...
ANALYSIS: HPAI Turkey Update — Week of October 5, 2025
Outbreak summary
On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, approximately 2.82 million turkeys have been lost to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in 2025. That is up 115% year-over-year (YOY) and down 62% from 2022, when the outbreak began. Of the turkeys impacted this year, 3% have been commercial breeder hens, 1% have been commercial breeder replacement hens, and 96% have been commercial meat birds. Thirteen states have reported unique outbreaks YTD, one fewer than the largest YTD value since the start of the...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Processing Hits New Seasonal Low as Prices Soar to Record Highs
In June and July, the turkey industry had a couple of months of relief from the seasonal all-time low numbers of turkeys being processed since August of last year. However, the headcount processed this August fell 4.1% below last year, once again marking a new seasonal low. This isn’t necessarily surprising considering that four months prior, net poult placements were 3.9% lower year-over-year (YOY). Additionally, just over 55,000 turkeys were lost at the end of August...
The Retail Rundown: Strategic Promotions Boost October Protein Opportunities
October offers a strategic window for retailers to tap into increased consumer demand for protein, thanks to the alignment of seasonal supply, promotional campaigns, and competitive pricing.
National Pork Month, observed this month, coincides with a peak in pork production—averaging about 2.5 billion pounds over the past five years, up nearly 9% from September.
This seasonal surplus enables retailers to run targeted promotions that pair attractive pricing with educational content, driving both consumer engagement and sales...
Vertical Cold Storage's Strategic Expansion with First Customs Bonded Warehouse
In today's global trade environment, customs bonded warehousing has become increasingly appealing to businesses seeking financial flexibility.
Tariffs can significantly inflate costs, but by deferring duties until products are sold in the US market or re-exported, companies can optimize cash flow and gain strategic operational advantages.
Vertical Cold Storage, a leader in cold storage and logistics for the food and beverage industry, is marking an achievement with the full licensing of its first customs bonded warehouse.
The company strategically chose to expand at its...
New Report From FMI Reveals a Significant Shift in Consumer Dining Habits
A new report from The Food Industry Association (FMI) uncovers a significant shift in dining habits.
The study shows that consumers are increasingly choosing deli-prepared foods in place of restaurant meals.
The Power of Foodservice at Retail 2025 examines the factors influencing consumer motivation for choosing deli-prepared options, offering insights from the consumer's perspective on foodservice at retail.
Data from the report revealed that 53% of Americans now take a hybrid approach to creating meals; combining deli-prepared options with other items...
FSIS Issues Public Health Alert For Ready-To-Eat Meals That May Be Contaminated With Listeria
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) is issuing a public health alert for FSIS-inspected ready-to-eat meals produced by FreshRealm containing a Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulated ingredient, specifically spinach, that may be contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes (Lm).
FSIS expects additional affected products to be identified and will update this public health alert as more information becomes available. Consumers should check back frequently.
The following products are subject to the...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Cold Storage Edges Higher MOM Amid Supply Constraints
The total volume of turkey in cold storage was still lower year-over-year (YOY) in August, following a trend that has been in place all year. With that said, the figures more closely approached those of last year than they had previously, with a 3.1% month-over-month (MOM) increase in holdings which is quite a bit higher than the 5-year average increase from July to August of 0.7%. However, despite this slight increase, cold storage inventories remained at an all-time low...
Exploring Dynamics in Poultry and Turkey Markets - Agri-Food Americas 2025
Commodity experts showcased in-depth analytical presentations from their respective markets on day two of Agri-Food Americas 2025, held in Chicago, Illinois, from September 23rd to 24th.
Taking center stage in the main ballroom, Russ Whitman, Director of Market Reporting at Expana, captivated the audience with a detailed analysis of the poultry market.
Describing chicken as "the protein that can't do any wrong," Whitman emphasized its competitive edge over beef, thanks to a compelling price advantage. Chicken's popularity continues to surge, with August's retail data...
Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #28
Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.
Click to read: "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #28."
This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text.
...
On Tuesday in New York, US President Trump gave remarks to the United Nations General Assembly, via the White House live stream...
ANALYSIS: Rising Demand for Protein Supports Turkey Sales Even as Prices Remain Elevated
It has been suggested that the increasing beef prices could drive up sales of similar items such as turkey and chicken lunchmeat, as well as ground items. However, there’s also been concern that the all-time high prices of turkey breast meat could squash consumer demand. Interestingly, if we look at a comparison of turkey and beef in terms of fresh packaged lunchmeat and ground, we see that they are performing similarly robustly at the retail counter. While it does not appear that turkey is replacing beef in these sectors, the phrase “a rising tide floats all boats” does seem to apply...
The Retail Rundown: Fall Promotions Highlight Beef Roasts, Pork Ahead of October
Fall retail trends have been unfolding for several weeks, with grocers promoting cooler-weather favorites and leaning into the early wave of seasonal excitement—embraced by some shoppers and resisted by those reluctant to let go of summer.
With the season officially underway as of Monday, beef roasts are seeing stronger promotion, now accounting for 28% of total beef ads compared with 24% two weeks ago. Even so, steaks remain the top feature item, followed by ground beef...
ANALYSIS: HPAI Turkey Update - Week of September 14th, 2025
Year-to-date (YTD) losses of turkeys due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) have reached approximately 2.25 million birds in 2025. This represents a 71% increase year-over-year (Y-O-Y), but remains 65% below the peak loss levels experienced in 2022, when the outbreak first emerged. Of the turkeys impacted this year, commercial meat birds account for the vast majority (96%), with commercial breeder hens and breeder replacement hens comprising 3% and 1% respectively.
Geographically, the outbreak has affected 12 states to date in 2025—one fewer than the record YTD count but nevertheless reflecting a 33% increase YoY and an 8% decline from 2022 levels. The affected...
FSIS Issues Public Health Alert for Ready-To-Eat Turkey Wrap Product Due To Possible Listeria
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) is issuing a public health alert for a ready-to-eat (RTE) turkey wrap product due to concerns that the product may be contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes. A recall was not requested because the affected product is no longer available for purchase.
The RTE turkey wrap product was produced on September 10, 2025. The following product is subject to the public health alert [view sample labels]:
ANALYSIS: Turkey Industry Braces for Q4 Supply Crunch Due to Egg Set Decline and Disease Losses
Earlier this summer, both buyers and sellers were optimistic that the turkey industry might offer slightly more product in Q4 of this year compared to last year...
The Retail Rundown: Chicken Promotions Fall Short in “National Month”
Beef and seafood ads were nearly even this week, each accounting for about 25% of featured buying opportunities. Pork and turkey held steady, while eggs gained ground, with the South Central region seeing the most feature activity.
Expana notes that the back-to-school lift in retail shell egg demand has largely passed, with September typically a slower period outside of the early-season bump.
Despite September being “National Chicken Month,” Expana’s weekly survey found chicken ads down from last week and slightly below late August levels...
Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #26
Click to read: "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #26."
Despite 50% tariffs remaining on Brazil and India, the Indian Prime Minister Modi and US President Trump expressed positivity that the respective trade teams would reach a deal, according to their latest social media...
ANALYSIS: US Turkey Exports See Modest July Uptick Amid Global HPAI Disruptions and Trade Shifts
The total volume of turkey exported from the US during the month of July remained well below last year. However, signs of increased trade were noted as month-over-month (MOM) activity rose 12.8% in comparison to a 5-year average increase of 8.7%. The most likely driver of this uptick in movement was a decline in Brazilian participation on the global turkey market.
On May 15th, Brazil confirmed their first commercial case of HPAI. While this case was detected in chickens...
ANALYSIS: HPAI's Reemergence and Its Implications for the Turkey Industry as Autumn Approaches
With the heat of summer gone, HPAI now appears to be back in the picture. Before the end of August, the last case of HPAI in commercial turkeys was in May, and industry participants received a welcome respite from the disease...
Dave's Hot Chicken Accelerates International Expansion with Exclusive European Agreement
Dave's Hot Chicken, the fastest-growing Nashville-style hot chicken sensation from Los Angeles, has finalized a landmark agreement with UK-based Azzurri Group, granting the hospitality powerhouse exclusive development rights across Europe. Under the new agreement, Azzurri Group will develop 180 Dave's Hot Chicken restaurants across 10 European countries, leveraging a joint venture partnership model to team up with experienced local operators in each market. These countries are France, Portugal, Spain, Germany, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Italy, and Turkey...
ANALYSIS: Fresh Turkey Breast Meat Prices Echo 2022 Trends Amid Supply Concerns and HPAI Threats
If they didn’t earlier, retailers are likely starting to feel the pinch when it comes to turkey meat as the spread between the average retail sales price of fresh turkey lunchmeat and the average quotations for wholesale fresh tom breast meat narrows considerably. During the first week of 2025, the price spread averaged $8.67, which was $0.72 higher than the last highest spread of this time in the past five years. Since then, the price spread has fallen 49.8% to the point...
Hillshire Farm® Debuts Flavor-Forward Lunch Meats
Tyson Foods is turning up the flavor and bringing new energy to the lunch meat category with the launch of Hillshire Farm® Sandwich Style Lunch Meats in three bold new flavors.
Crafted to spark creativity, the new lunch meats inspire fresh...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Inventories Remain Tight Amid Efforts to Replenish Freezers
July’s cold storage figures continue to show lower year-over-year (YoY) inventories for all lines, highlighting the limited availability of turkey as very low volumes makes its way to the freezer. Meanwhile, July’s total month-over-month (MoM) increase in turkey in cold storage outpaced the 5-year average by approximately four percentage points, in part demonstrating the effort of many participants in the industry to replenish their frozen inventories.
The comparative MoM changes for whole birds and MST follow that of the overall data...
The Retail Rundown: Labor Day Protein Promotions at a Glance
Seafood leads Labor Day protein promotions, accounting for 27.1% of total ad volume. Pork follows at 23.2%, with beef and chicken each capturing about 22%. Retail buying opportunities for turkey held steady at 3.5%, while promotional activity for shell eggs remained limited.
Back-to-school demand has provided fair to fairly good retail support for eggs, according to Expana, with shelf prices holding mainly steady across most areas in the past month. Last week, white large Grade A eggs were advertised at $4.49 per dozen discounted, nearly $1...
ANALYSIS: Protein Production Outlook for Q3
The USDA is forecasting a mixed outlook for protein production in Q3, with significant declines expected in beef and turkey, while pork and broiler output remain steady or edge higher. Beef production is projected to fall sharply year-over-year (YOY), down 5.4% from 6.78 billion pounds in Q3 2024 to 6.42 billion pounds in Q3 2025. This reflects a tightening cattle supply pipeline, a trend that has persisted throughout much of the year and continues to pressure beef availability.
Turkey output is also forecast to contract, slipping 4.5% YOY to...
222 Poultry Facilities Recognized by Joint Poultry Industry Safety & Health Council
The Joint Poultry Industry Safety & Health Council recognized 222 chicken and turkey facilities with safety awards at the National Safety Conference for the Poultry Industry in Destin, Fla. The facilities were honored in recognition of their outstanding performance through the implementation of innovative and effective employee safety and health programs.
Award consideration was based on injury statistics from the 2022–2024 period and a review of written applications evaluated by academia and other safety experts.
This year, 49 facilities earned the highest level of recognition...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Sector Navigates Low Production, Vaccine Gains, and HPAI Fears as Fall Approaches
The USDA’s monthly turkey hatch data continues to show YTD egg sets and poult placements at record low values, trending 0.8% and 0.5% below last year, respectively. Still, the number of eggs in incubators for August lends a glimmer of optimism to some buyers as the value inches above last August’s and narrows the gap between this year and the 5-year average. Meanwhile, the USDA’s data still shows July’s poult placements falling lower year-over-year (YOY)...
The Retail Rundown: Retailers See Early Back-to-School Spending Amid Price Concerns
While some students are already back in class, others are squeezing in the last stretch of summer before Labor Day. Either way, grocers are bracing for busy aisles as parents juggle back-to-school supplies and grocery lists. This week’s ads highlight plenty of lunchbox staples, including snacks and deli items.
The National Retail Federation (NRF) reports that two-thirds of shoppers had already begun back-to-school purchases by early July, with more than half starting earlier than last year. Concerns about higher prices linked to tariffs...
The Retail Rundown: Beef Tops Retail Ads as Grocers Prepare for Labor Day
With Labor Day just under three weeks away, grocers are preparing for summer’s last big grilling rush. Most holiday orders have already been locked in, and meat and prepared food departments are expected to see strong traffic as shoppers savor the last days of summer.
Beef has overtaken seafood as the most advertised protein this week, representing 27.0% of retail buying opportunities. Pork is close behind at 26.6%, while seafood has eased to 23.3%. Chicken remains steady at 18%, and turkey ads inched up to 3%...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Cold Storage Hits Record Lows Amid Active Demand and Production Challenges
The total volume of turkey in cold storage continues to set new seasonal lows on a month-by-month basis. The overall frozen inventory was 15.8% below year-ago levels, speaking to the combination of robust demand and limited production that the market currently faces. Yet, even with the lower year-over-year (YOY) values, the change from May to June was almost identical to the 5-year average month-over-month (MOM) change. This was largely driven...
The Retail Rundown: Summer’s Last Stretch Drives Seasonal Promotions
August has arrived, bringing a sense of urgency to make the most of summer’s final weeks. With Labor Day fewer than four weeks away and just seven weeks remaining until the season’s official end, retailers are already diving into back-to-school promotions.
Seafood claims the top spot among protein features again this week, making up 30.3% of all retail ads, followed by beef at 26.2%, pork at 20.8%, and chicken at 18.9%. Egg promotions remain minimal, comprising less than 1% of features—consistent with last week’s light showing. The Midwest led in egg advertising, while the Northeast and South Central regions showed more moderate activity...
Triple Typhoon Impact Disrupts Southeast Asian Agricultural and Aquaculture Supply Chains
A rare convergence of three powerful typhoons in July has battered key agricultural and aquaculture regions across China, Vietnam, Taiwan, and the Philippines. Typhoons Wipha, Danas, and Co-May have collectively caused hundreds of millions in damages.
Typhoon Wipha Deals Blow to Vietnam’s Rice and Shrimp Exports
Typhoon Wipha formed on July 18 near the northern Philippines and intensified to Category 1 before making landfall in Guangzhou, China, and later striking northern Vietnam. Wipha lashed southern China with winds up to 75 mph, triggering floods and landslides
ANALYSIS: June Turkey Harvest Breaks Record Low Streak
The turkey slaughter data for June is noteworthy, as it marks the first time since August of last year that a new record seasonal low has not been set. This June's total number of turkeys harvested was 5% above June 2024. Additionally, there was a month-over-month (MOM) increase of 7.4%, compared to a 5-year average MOM decline of 3.8% for this time frame.
This modest increase in production is a welcome shift for both buyers and sellers. Those on the...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Production Lifts Off with Growing Poult Placements and Health Improvements
This year's turkey hatch figures continue to lag behind the 5-year average but still outpace last year on a year-to-date (YTD) basis. Tom and hen poult placements are up year-over-year (YOY) by 3.5% and 3.4%, respectively, while egg sets are up 2.5% from last year.
These figures demonstrate the active push from many in the industry to supply more turkey meat. While a larger number of breeder-type birds were lost to HPAI this year...
The Retail Rundown: Beef Edges Out Seafood in Weekly Protein Features
Beef narrowly edged out seafood for the top spot in retail protein promotions this week, making up 25.9% of all featured items. Seafood was a close second at 25.3%, while pork and chicken each accounted for about 23%. Eggs represented roughly 2% of ads, and turkey dipped below 1%.
Beef steaks remained a premium grilling choice, averaging $14.21 per pound last week. Seafood also led on price, with fresh salmon reaching as high as $17.24 per pound in some regions...
ANALYSIS: May Sets Another Record Low in Turkey Slaughter as Tight Supplies Persist
May's turkey slaughter figures continue to represent the ongoing trend of tight supplies. For the tenth month in a row, a new seasonal record low has been set with May's figures coming in 11% below last year. The extremely limited availability of turkey meat has pushed quotations for 21 of Expana's lines to all-time highs and has resulted in Expana's turkey index reaching the second largest value on record, trailing only behind 2022.
During the month of May, there were still turkeys...
ANALYSIS: Volatile Market Conditions Shape US Turkey Exports in May
May’s export report showcases a volatile turkey export market. The total values follow a very similar trend as in past months, with a lower year-over-year (YOY) volume and a below-average month-over-month (MOM) change. This is primarily driven by the Mexican market, while the others show quite a bit more variability.
Based on the 5-year average, Mexico generally accounts for 69.2% of the total volume of turkey exported from the US during the month of May. This past May, they accounted...
The Retail Rundown: Retailers Push Value to Maintain Protein Momentum
Retail meat clearance over the Independence Day holiday was generally strong, with consumers stocking up on grilling staples for the summer’s flagship cookout occasion.
With few major buying events remaining this summer, grocers will likely push aggressive features and highlight value finds to sustain shopper engagement through the dog days of summer.
Post-holiday protein advertisements show seafood maintaining the lead at 33.1% of retail features, followed by beef at 25.1% and pork at 21.5%. Chicken accounted for 16.2%, while turkey fell to just 2%—half of the previous week's...
367,812 Pounds of Oscar Mayer Turkey Bacon Recalled Nationwide Over Listeria Concerns
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS), the Kraft Heinz Food Company is recalling approximately 367,812 pounds of fully cooked turkey bacon products due to potential contamination with Listeria monocytogenes, identified through laboratory testing.
The affected products were produced between April 24, 2025, and June 11, 2025. They were distributed to retail locations nationwide and exported to the British Virgin Islands and Hong Kong.
The recalled products include:
12-oz. vacuum-packed packages of Oscar Mayer Turkey...
ANALYSIS: Summer Squeeze, Limited Turkey Supplies and Consumer Choices
May’s cold storage report tells a story of limited turkey supplies and the search of the American people for value. All turkey categories were down year-over-year (YoY), anywhere from 3.1% for whole toms to 49.7% for MST. This May’s cold storage holdings were below the 5-year average for most categories as well, with the exception of breasts. Along with this theme, the month-over-month (MoM) change in inventories was below average for whole birds and legs.
All of this points to very limited production...
ANALYSIS: Retail Turkey Distribution Climbs Amid Price Hikes and Inventory Woes
So far, retail distribution of turkey is up 39.6% in June while year-to-date (YTD) it is down 1.9%. The relatively robust June distribution comes at a time when turkey prices continue to skyrocket, as evidenced by the growing gap in this year's Expana Turkey Index compared to the 5-year average.
Despite this June’s Expana Turkey Index outpacing the 5-year average by 40.7%, the average price at retail has only been up 9.7% compared to the 5-year average. This means...
The Retail Rundown: Independence Day Deals in Focus
As the Fourth of July holiday draws closer, competition for front-page ad space among proteins is heating up. Seafood is currently leading with a 29% share, followed by beef and pork, each capturing 24%. Chicken accounts for 18%, while turkey trails at 2.6%.
Burgers and hot dogs remain backyard barbecue mainstays. Several national grocers were promoting 78–84% lean ground beef under $5 per pound, with eye-catching specials as low as $2.27 on a discounted basis.
Over Father's Day weekend...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Producers Eye Potential Supply Boost
While this year's turkey egg sets and poult placements are still below the 5-year average, there has been a year-over-year (YOY) increase in all these values.
Over the past year, supplies of most lines within the turkey complex have consistently been barely adequate to short of needs. This has resulted in rapidly rising prices with 21 quotations reaching new all-time highs. Many participants from both sides of the negotiation table have been anxiously wondering when they are going to start seeing increased availability...
The Retail Rundown: Seafood Leads Father’s Day Protein Promotions; CPI Shows Mild Increase
For Father’s Day weekend, seafood leads retail protein promotions, accounting for 28% of total ad volume. Beef follows at 24.8%, with pork close behind at 23.6%. Chicken claims 19% of protein ads, while turkey makes up about 3%.
Egg features remain limited for now but are on track to gain ground next week amid improving retail demand. While egg consumption typically slows around this time of year due to reduced baking and fewer hot breakfasts, eggs are emerging as one of the few proteins seeing price relief at retail—standing out amid peak seasonal...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Exports Slide, How Tariffs and Other Headwinds Hit the Market
Total turkey exports ended the month of April down approximately 23.7% year-over-year (YOY). This was primarily driven by a 23.5% decrease in the volume moved to Mexico, which made up 83.2% of international purchasing of US turkey for April compared to a 5-year average of 67.1%. Much of the changes to US exports of turkey during the spring can be related to tariffs, along with ongoing production concerns.
The month-over-month (MOM) change was only a decline of 0.9%, compared...
ANALYSIS: Supply-Driven Pricing in the Turkey Market
The number of turkeys processed in April was at an all-time low, following a trend that was established in August of last year. HPAI, avian metapneumovirus, and economic limitations all continue to impact the availability of supplies. The record low supplies are influencing an extremely bullish market as 21 of Expana’s quotations reach all-time high levels. Still, participants on both sides of the negotiation table lament the lack of offerings. Many sellers have reportedly taken a cautious approach when it comes to the pricing of certain lines, especially...
The Retail Rundown: Pork Deals Deliver Summer Savings
Pork promotions are gaining momentum, with value-priced cuts standing out against higher-priced beef and even some chicken items.
Bacon continues to steal the spotlight in the pork category, fueled by strong seasonal demand as consumers stock up on this summer staple. Over Memorial Day, discounted bacon averaged $6.30 per pound, up nearly 3% from last year. Wholesale belly prices have climbed 13% since early April, supported by tightening hog supplies and historically low cold storage stocks.
As grilling season gains momentum, demand for ribs...
Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #11
Click to read "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #11."
This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Inventories Remain at Multi-Year Low
The latest cold storage report continues to reflect the strain on the US turkey supply chain. Total turkey inventories fell to 318.8 million pounds in April, marking a new seasonal low and an 18.4% year-over-year (YoY) decline from April 2024. This represents the seventh consecutive month of YoY reductions.
A combination of reduced hatchery figures when compared to last year, along with ongoing disease issues, continues to limit overall production output. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) detections year-to-date (YTD) are...
The Retail Rundown: Father’s Day Fires Up Demand for Premium Cuts
Meat sales over Memorial Day weekend appeared to underperform in some regions this year, as cool weather across the Midwest curbed outdoor grilling activity.
Retailers are now setting their sights on the next major grilling event, Father’s Day, paired with hopes for improved weather. Falling on June 15th this year, the event presents another opportunity to drive protein consumption.
This week’s retail buying opportunities are led by seafood, which accounts for 28.2% of protein ads. Beef has 26.4%, trailed by pork at 23.2%, chicken at 18%, and turkey with...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Hatch Figures Reflect Supply Pinch with Slight Variations
Given the well accounted for supply landscape surrounding most key segments within the turkey complex at the moment, market participants are closely monitoring for any signs of a shift from the prevailing status quo. Although May marked the nineteenth consecutive month of year-over-year (YoY) declines in the eggs in incubators, there could be some emerging indications that an inflection point may be approaching, at least on paper.
May’s beginning tally of 24.8 million eggs in incubators was just 0.2%, or 51,000 eggs, below the comparable period in...
The Retail Rundown: Pre-Grilling Season Retail Insights
With Memorial Day fast approaching, retailers are ramping up promotions to jumpstart the unofficial kickoff to the summer grilling season—a crucial window for driving foot traffic and boosting meat department sales.
The next two weeks are key, as market participants closely watch consumer demand ahead of what is typically one of the busiest periods for beef sales. Protein items are being prominently showcased alongside vibrant seasonal produce, enhancing the appeal of in-store displays.
Seafood leads the protein feature mix this week, accounting for nearly 30% of all advertised protein items...
The Retail Rundown: Grocers Take on Foodservice for a Slice of Mother’s Day Spending
Grocers are gearing up to win a slice of Mother’s Day sales, which are traditionally dominated by restaurants and dining out. While foodservice still captures the lion’s share of spending, supermarkets are making strategic plays to compete for consumers' dollars.
According to the National Retail Federation, Mother’s Day spending is projected to hit $34.1 billion this year—up from $33.5 billion in 2024 and just shy of the 2023 record of $35.7 billion. About 84% of US adults are expected to celebrate, spending an average of $259.04 on gifts and festivities...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Harvest Numbers Continue to Fall Below Industry Norms
The 2025 turkey slaughter trajectory is shaping up to be one of the most historically limited starts in recent memory. USDA data shows federally inspected turkey headcounts for January through March averaging just over 14.5 million per month - an 18% drop from the 24-year average and nearly 19% below the 5-year norm. February was especially weak, with only 13.27 million turkeys harvested - the lowest total for that month in over two decades. Notably, each of the first three months of 2025 has tracked below the previous recorded historical low, firmly establishing the year’s limited supply footing...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Shortage Deepens: March Stocks Drop Below 2022 Levels
The total volume of turkey in cold storage has fallen below 2022 to reach a new all-time low in March. Since October 2024, there has been an ongoing trend of year-over-year (YoY) declines in the total amount of frozen turkey. This is largely attributed to low production figures and a relatively high number of disease-related issues. The total number of turkeys processed has been at an all-time low since November 2024, and this year's year-to-date (YTD) HPAI detections are at the second-highest value on record. Additionally, market discussions have suggested that avian metapneumovirus has been responsible for substantial increases in mortality...
ANALYSIS: March Chicken Inventory Trends Reflect Shifting Domestic and Export Dynamics
Cold storage inventories of chicken continue to diverge from 2023 levels, with March values up 3.1% year-over-year (YoY). Although there was a month-over-month (MoM) decrease from February to March, it was less significant than the typical five-year average decline. This overall trend was largely driven by the breast and breast meat category, which alone accounted for 32% of total chicken supplies in cold storage. Frozen holdings of breasts and breast meat were up 13.7% YoY and declined just 0.6% MoM—far less than the five-year average decrease of 4.2%.
This is particularly notable given the difficulty many domestic buyers faced in uncovering both...
The Retail Rundown: Grocers Turn Up the Heat
Grocers are turning up the heat in this week’s circulars, leaning into classic summer grilling staples—ribs, burgers, and barbecue fixings—signaling early excitement for the season even with Memorial Day still a few weeks away.
Seafood tops this week’s retail protein promotions, claiming roughly 28% of total ad space. Beef follows with 24.7%, trailed by pork at 23.1% and chicken at 20.2%. Turkey ads were slashed by half compared to last week, now accounting for just 3% of circular space.
Retailers are also highlighting festive favorites ahead of Cinco de Mayo. Ground beef in the 78–84% lean range averaged $4.89 per...
ANALYSIS: 2025 YTD Turkey Poult Placements Down 4.0%: Hen Supply Hit Hardest
Year-to-date (YTD) poult placements in 2025 hover an average of 4.0% below the 5-year average. This is a continuation of the ongoing trend of below-average supplies. While HPAI cases are less frequent and the new avian metapneumovirus vaccines are starting to be implemented, the losses sustained by the industry leave a lasting impact that is not quickly overcome. For these reasons, hatcheries only have so many eggs they can set, and growers are also restricted on the number of birds...
The Retail Rundown: Post-Easter Pause Sets Stage for Protein Push
With Easter now in the rearview, retailers will largely tread water, positioning themselves for a seasonal surge in demand ahead of the start of summer.
Grilling demand is beginning to build toward a Memorial Day crescendo, prompting grocers to build inventory and plan aggressive promotions to jumpstart the season.
But first up is Cinco de Mayo. While it's a smaller holiday, it can still drive foot traffic. Proteins like pork, steak, and chicken are expected to see solid movement as shoppers make tacos, burritos, enchiladas, and other festive fare...
ANALYSIS: Turkey HPAI Update - Week of 4/6/25
Outbreak Summary
On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, approximately 1.67 million turkeys have been lost to HPAI in 2025. This is up 499% year-over-year (YoY) and is down 56% from 2022 when the outbreak began. Of the turkeys impacted this year, 3% have been commercial breeder hens, 1% have been commercial breeder replacement hens, and 96% have been commercial meat birds. There have been 11 unique states impacted which is the largest YTD value since the start of the outbreak, up 83% YoY and up...
ANALYSIS: February Turkey Exports Reveal Shifts in Key Markets
In a continuation of the trend established in August 2024, total export volumes for the U.S. were down year-over-year (YoY) in February. However, not all individual countries followed this trajectory, as two of the top five, the Dominican Republic and the Bahamas, actually imported greater amounts than they had last year. Meanwhile, the exports to Mexico, Guatemala, and Canada were down in keeping with the total values.
While month-over-month (MoM) values also declined, the decrease from January to February was less...
The Retail Rundown: Protein Adds to Holiday Price Gains
Easter week has arrived and grocers are tapping into the holiday's spending momentum. But for consumers, Easter dinner is shaping up to be pricier than last year, with many holiday staples seeing year-over-year price increases.
According to Expana’s latest US Easter Index—which tracks price changes in key holiday-related commodities—overall prices rose 11.8% year-over-year, driven largely by higher costs in the protein and bakery categories.
Expana’s Easter Protein Index, which covers lamb, beef, pork, salmon, cod, and eggs...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Market Prices Surge as Slaughter Numbers Decline
Monthly turkey slaughter values continue to be reported at record lows with February's headcount retreating 18.8% year-over-year (YoY). This puts year-to-date (YTD) values down 12.4% YoY. Meanwhile, according to data reported from the National Chicken Council, per capita consumption of turkey throughout 2025 is only forecasted to decline 4.5% YoY. With demand outpacing production, prices for much of the turkey complex have been climbing.
Over a quarter of Expana's current turkey quotations are at all-time high values and more than...
The Retail Rundown: Easter Momentum Builds
In the final full week of Lent, seafood accounts for 35% of all protein retail promotions, gaining ground on pork, which holds 23% of ad space. Beef promotions slipped to 20%, while chicken has 15%. Lamb and veal promotions, though still minimal, doubled from the previous week, rising to 2% ahead of Easter.
Notably, Easter falls late this year—on April 20—affecting year-over-year (YOY) comparisons. Ham promotions last week were offered at premium price points compared to 2024. Discounted boneless smoked hams averaged...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Market Faces Uncertainty with Record-Low Inventories
February's cold storage report shows a year-over-year (YoY) decrease for every turkey category. This is largely a result of extremely low production caused by ongoing disease issues. The least dramatic YoY decrease was noted for whole birds with a decline of 5.6%, while the most significant was for MST at a value 26.1% lower. While the overall YoY decrease is indicative of supply constraints, the differences in the losses among these categories tells the story of demand.
Demand for frozen whole turkeys was relatively lackluster throughout Fall '24...
The Retail Rundown: Spring Sizzle Fuels Protein Demand
Spring promotions are in full bloom at retail, with holiday-themed ads ramping up. Circulars showcase produce and snacking items alongside grilling staples, aiming to entice shoppers with vibrant displays and seasonal appeal. Beyond holiday preparations, schools and universities are approaching spring break season, likely driving an uptick in foodservice in the coming weeks.
In some regions, grocers are leveraging hams as loss leaders ahead of Easter. Last week, discounted bone-in ham averaged $2.56 per pound, while spiral-sliced varieties stood at $2.61 per pound—steady to lower than last year’s levels...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Poult Supply Shrinks in 2025
In what has been a continuation of the established trajectory, turkey poult placements in 2025 are trending notably below the 5-year average for both hen and tom poults, as depicted in the chart. This decline reflects ongoing challenges within the industry, primarily driven by persistent outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) and the growing presence of Avian Metapneumovirus (aMPV). HPAI continues to significantly disrupt operations through forced depopulations, movement restrictions, and prolonged farm downtimes, all of which have reduced the availability of breeder stock and subsequently limited poult supply...
The Retail Rundown: 20th Power of Meat Report Reveals Record-Breaking Meat Sales
The 2025 Power of Meat Study was unveiled this week at the Annual Meat Conference in Orlando, Florida, where Anne-Marie Roerink, Principal at 210 Analytics, shared key insights into shoppers' evolving meat and poultry purchasing habits. Here are some key takeaways from the study's 20th edition:
Meat sales reach new heights
This year’s report, released by the Meat Institute and The Food Industry Association (FMI), revealed that the meat department set a new sales record in 2024, reaching $105 billion in total...
ANALYSIS: HPAI Crisis Escalates, Record Losses and Uncertainty in the Turkey Market
On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, with over 1.6 million turkeys lost, HPAI losses have increased 664% year-over-year and 236% from 2022, which previously held the highest YTD losses. Furthermore, 67,400 breeder and breeder replacement hens have been lost to HPAI this year, whereas there were no losses in 2023 and 2024 YTD. In 2022, 37,800 breeder replacement hens were affected.
Additionally, not only have more birds been lost, but more counties have also been affected. So far this year, HPAI has been...
The Retail Rundown: Fresh Buying Opportunities in Bloom
Tomorrow marks the official start of spring, and retailers are seizing fresh opportunities to capture increased spending with occassions like Easter and peak grilling season soon approaching.
However, for some residents, spring still feels distant as a late-season storm sweeps through the Central US today and tomorrow, potentially impacting purchasing and consumption patterns in affected regions.
With roughly a month remaining in Lent, seafood remains a focal point in retail promotions, accounting for 33% of protein advertisements, primarily driven by fresh/frozen fillets as well...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Exports Face Mixed Performance in January Amid Global Production Struggles
January's turkey export numbers vary widely by individual country, but overall trends indicate a continuation of the pattern we've been observing: demand for turkey remains fairly consistent across several international markets, but lower production levels limit export availability.
Mexico closely follows this trend, with a 9.0% month-over-month (MoM) decrease in volume moved compared to the 5-year average MoM decrease of 10.6%, alongside a 4.9% year-over-year (YoY) decline.
Conversely, Canada, Taiwan, and Jamaica all recorded YoY increases in imported volumes...
The Retail Rundown: Grocers Leverage Seasonal Trends; Inflation Update
As temperatures rise across much of the US, grocers are highlighting seasonal offerings for springtime occasions and grilling essentials.
Retailers are refining their marketing strategies to align with shifting demand, appealing to sports fans to boost traffic in the meat department. However, securing lower year-over-year protein prices remains a challenge, as factors like animal disease continue to affect availability across key categories.
The wholesale chicken market is gaining traction with baseball season on the horizon, driving demand for boneless items. Expana reports that buyers are scrambling to secure supply...
ANALYSIS: March Pet Food Market Insight Report Released
The animal protein and by-product markets experienced various trends in February, with some sectors showing price stability and others facing fluctuations. Factors such as supply constraints, disease concerns, and shifting demand, particularly within the pet food industry, impacted beef, pork, poultry, and plant-based proteins. Additionally, tariffs and global production dynamics continued to disrupt the availability and pricing of essential feed additives like vitamins, minerals, and amino acids...
ANALYSIS: January's Cold Storage Report Reveals Shrinking Turkey Supplies Amid Decreased Production
January's cold storage report further highlights several of the trends that have been discussed in the turkey market for several months now. Overall, there's less turkey in the freezer than there was a year ago. Additionally, month-over-month (MoM) changes in inventory, while generally seasonal, reflect a decreased amount of production available for storage.
All categories on the report were down year-over-year (YoY) with values ranging from 1.7% to 32.2% lower. The smallest YoY difference was for breasts...
ANALYSIS: December 2024 Turkey Export Trends Reflect Record Low U.S. Production
The total month-over-month (MoM) change in U.S. turkey exports in December was in line with the 5-year average, the volume traded was 14.5% below year-ago levels. This lends support to the idea that demand patterns for most international turkey destinations have remained consistent, but a lower amount of production has been available for export. The decreased number of supplies that can be traded to international destinations comes as no surprise considering that the total volume of ready-to...
The Retail Rundown: Seafood Rides the Lenten Wave
With March just around the corner, the first signs of spring and warmer days are emerging—welcome news for both consumers and grocers.
Seafood leads this week's protein advertisements, accounting for 26% of total features, closely followed by beef and chicken at 23% each. Pork ads make up 22%, while turkey holds a 3.5% share. Egg promotions remain scarce, extending a two-week trend.
In the seafood complex, fillet promotions are ramping up ahead of the Lenten season, now making up 33.5% of the category’s volume. Ads for both raw and cooked...
ANALYSIS: Low Production Reflected by Shrinking Inventories, December’s Turkey Cold Storage Report
In December’s cold storage report, all categories of turkey apart from “other” were down year-over-year (YoY), which was the first time that this had occurred in 2024. For even some of the less sought after items to be lower YoY really highlights the intensive production shortages that plagued the industry. This is further magnified by the fact that month-over-month (MoM) increases in whole bird, breasts, and total inventories were far below the 5-year average MoM increase.
Meanwhile, the disappearance of MST.
ANALYSIS: 2024 Turkey Harvest Hits Record Low
2024 marked the first time on record, dating back to 2001, in which the total number of turkeys processed annually was below 200 million. At a value of approximately 198 million turkeys, 2024’s turkey harvest values fell 8.3% below those of 2023, and 9.2% below the 5-year average. This was the second most dramatic year-over-year (YoY) change ever recorded, lagging just behind 2009 when the number of turkeys harvested fell by 9.4%. This is a very important factor to consider when looking at the...
Applegate Farms, LLC Launches New Ready-to-Heat-and-Eat APPLEGATE NATURALS® Breakfast Sandwiches
The makers of APPLEGATE®, the nation’s leading natural and organic meat brand, are continuing their foray into the breakfast conversation with the launch of their fourth breakfast-product innovation in the last 19 months. Introducing, APPLEGATE NATURALS® Breakfast Sandwiches.
With 58% of U.S. adults eating breakfast at home and 18% eating on the road or at work3, this is Applegate’s fourth breakfast innovation in two years, building on the brand’s commitment to provide high quality, protein breakfast options...
ANALYSIS: From Steady to Skyrocketing: The Unprecedented Rise of Fresh Turkey Thigh Meat Prices
On January 21, the fresh turkey thigh meat quotation reached a record level that has steadily risen since then. Still, thigh meat supplies remain nearly nonexistent, and some sellers toss around asking prices that are nearly 24% higher than the previous all-time high of $2.02. This begs the questions: How did we get to this point, and where do we go from here?
Like many high-powered objects, the energy needed for rocketing prices has been slowly accumulating in the...
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