Middle East Market Intelligence Brief: Week Ending June 5, 2026

As the Iran war heads into its fourth month, Hezbollah rejected a US-brokered ceasefire proposal in Lebanon, while Israel said it would continue operations and not withdraw troops, despite Trump’s claims of progress toward a wider regional peace effort involving Iran.

Meanwhile, fighting and strikes continue across Lebanon, Gaza, and the Gulf region, with tensions persisting around key energy routes like the Strait of Hormuz.

Below is Expana’s weekly summary of the war’s most significant effects on global commodities. For the latest real-time updates, follow the Middle East Conflict tag...

USDA Launches TRUMP Mission to Argentina and Ecuador to Expand Market Access for American Farmers

The U.S. Department of Agriculture launched a Trade Reciprocity for U.S. Manufacturers and Producers (TRUMP) Mission to Argentina and Ecuador this week to open new markets and strengthen export opportunities for American farmers, ranchers and producers.

Built on the Reciprocal Trade and Investment agreements signed with Argentina and Ecuador earlier this year, the mission led by USDA’s Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs, Luke J. Lindberg, aims to increase fair access to two of the Western Hemisphere’s fastest-growing markets.

“Our three-point plan has already reduced the agricultural trade deficit by 42%, and now, TRUMP trade missions like this one are turning new market access into true market share...

Day 39 of Iran War: Trump Says “Whole Civilization Will Die Tonight” if Deal Missed

US President Donald Trump reiterated his threat to Iran to make a deal by his Tuesday deadline, saying a "whole civilization will die tonight" if an agreement is not reached to end the war.

"A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don't want that to happen, but it probably will," Trump said in a post on Truth Social. "We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World."

Day 34 of Iran War: US-Israel War on Iran Intensifies; Oil Jumps, Tehran Rejects Ceasefire Claims

The United States and Israel stepped up strikes on Iran, with reported casualties and damage across multiple areas, as Iranian forces launched new missile and drone attacks in response.

In an address on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said Washington had “destroyed the Iranian military” and was nearing its war objectives. Trump also said Tehran had sought a ceasefire, a claim Iranian officials denied...

Day 17 of Iran War: US Allies Decline Trump's Request to Send Ships to Strait of Hormuz

On the 17th day of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Israel launched a fresh wave of airstrikes on Tehran. Iranian officials dismissed US claims of truce talks, emphasizing readiness to defend the country.

Amid rising tensions in the Gulf region, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says the Strait of Hormuz “is open, but closed to our enemies, to those who carried out this cowardly aggression against us and to their allies”.

US President Donald Trump is pushing allies to form a coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz, while Japan and Australia have said...

Day 14 of Iran War: US Temporarily Eases Russian Oil Sanctions; Shipping Risks Mount 

Israeli airstrikes have hit Tehran on the 14^th day of the Iran war as Iran and its allies launch retaliatory attacks across Gulf states, sharply escalating tensions across the region and disrupting global energy markets.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route linking the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, remains severely disrupted.

On Friday, the US issued a 30-day license for countries to buy Russian oil and petroleum products currently stranded at sea. Oil prices eased following the announcement, though prices are...

Day 13 of Iran War: Strait of Hormuz Tensions Continue, Brent Crude Tops $100 Again

US and Israeli strikes on Iran continued Thursday as the war entered its 13th day, while Tehran intensified retaliatory attacks that have unsettled global energy markets.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran could consider ending the war if its “legitimate rights” are acknowledged, reparations are paid, and binding international guarantees are put in place to prevent future attacks.

Maritime tensions are increasing around the Strait of Hormuz, with reports of tanker attacks off Iraq and drone strikes targeting energy infrastructure throughout the Gulf...

Rail Merger Would be Costly for Farmers

The proposed merger of the Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern railways would leave farmers with fewer transportation options and vulnerable to shipping cost increases at a time when balance sheets have been squeezed to the breaking point by rapidly rising input costs. Transportation, marketing and storage expenses are projected to rise to a record $14 billion in 2026. American Farm Bureau Federation economists analyzed the UP-NS merger in the latest Market Intel.

“The risk of the UP–NS merger is clear,” the Market Intel states. “It would leave farmers more dependent...

Iran War Enters Fourth Day, Driving Higher Crude Prices and Broad Commodity Swings

The US-Israeli war on Iran intensified into its fourth day, with Tehran reporting a death toll of 787 as strikes continue to target leadership and infrastructure. Israel’s campaign, initially described as a two-week operation, is reportedly advancing faster than expected, with no firm end date signaled. US President Donald Trump said the war could last four to five weeks.

Global markets remain on edge. Crude oil surged nearly 4% in overnight trade, while European equities fell sharply. US stock futures also pointed lower, with the three major indices last shedding about 2%...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #29

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

Click to read: "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #29."

This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text.

...

On September 29, the US placed 50% tariffs on imports of timber, lumber, and their derivative products, according to the US Presidential Action. 

Also starting October 1, the US will be imposing 100%...

US Baking and Milling Industry Execs Discuss Countering Inflationary Pressures - Agri-Food Americas

As inflationary pressures persist through 2025, leaders in the North American bakery and milling industries are grappling with supply chain complexities that continue to reshape procurement strategies and product portfolios.

On the sidelines of the recent Agri-Food Americas 2025 conference in Chicago, executives from Sara Lee Frozen Bakery and Bay State Milling outlined to Expana how ingredient costs, tariffs, and operational uncertainties are driving adjustments across their businesses.   

Jason McDonald, Senior Manager of Procurement at Sara Lee Frozen Bakery

Salty Snacks Maker, Utz to Remove Artificial Colors By 2027

As of September 23, Utz Brands, Inc. will remove certified Food, Drug and Cosmetic (“FD&C”) colors from its product portfolio by 2027, according to a company press release. 

“Since 1921, Utz Brands, Inc. has been committed to making snacks with quality, transparency, and simple, trusted ingredients. As consumer tastes and government regulatory initiatives evolve, we adapt while staying true to the flavors and traditions people love," read the statement...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #23

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

Click to read "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #23."

This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text.

...

This week, tariff news took a bit of a backseat to US President Trump’s dealings with Russian President Putin in Alaska—along with President Trump’s meeting with many European leaders...

US-Philippines Trade Relations Televised; 19% Tariff Rate Reached

On July 22, US President Trump participated in a bilateral meeting with Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. 

“... We concluded our Trade Deal, whereby The Philippines is going OPEN MARKET with the United States, and ZERO Tariffs,” wrote President Trump on Truth Social after the meeting. “The Philippines will pay a 19% Tariff. In addition, we will work together Militarily. It was a Great Honor to be with the President. He is Highly Respected in his Country, as he should be. He is also a very good, and tough, negotiator..."

Mixed Wheat Prospects for Russia, Says Expana Crop Analyst

As of July 10, total wheat production in Russia (including Crimea but excluding the other Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine) is forecast slightly up by 1% compared to the 2024 harvest, at around 83.2 million metric tons (mt), up from 82.6 million mt in 2024 and below the five-year average of 87.7 million mt, said Aurélien Blary, Crop Analyst, Expana.   

According to Blary, the winter wheat harvest is picking up pace in Western Russia as rainfall is easing in the region.

Joey Chestnut Returns to Gobbling Beef Dogs Post Plant-Based Debacle as Prices Rise

Some people have heroes like Michael Jordan and Bo Jackson, for participants in the global food industry and for competitive eating fans, the master is none other than Joey “Jaws” Chestnut. Yet last year, the king of hot dog eating did not compete in the annual Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest in Coney Island, NY on Independence Day due to a sponsorship conflict with Impossible Foods. 

Impossible Foods does have their hot dog made from soy protein isolate, wheat gluten, sunflower oil, coconut oil, among other ingredients...