What Trump Tariffs Mean for Food and Agriculture Trade

US President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% tariff on imports from China.

Tariffs for Canada and China are in effect as of February 4, while the tariffs on Mexico have been delayed for one month following negotiations with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who agreed to send 10,000 members of her country’s national guard to the border to address drug trafficking... 

US Meat Trade Faces Uncertainty Ahead of Tariff Implementation

On Thursday, President Trump reaffirmed his plan to impose 25% tariffs on goods imported from Mexico and Canada, set to take effect on February 1, 2025. He is also considering an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports.

The announcement has heightened uncertainty across many industries, including the livestock and meat sectors. The tariffs threaten to significantly disrupt live cattle shipments from Mexico and Canada, both key suppliers...

Compounding these challenges, a ban on feeder cattle imports from Mexico remains in effect following...

Morocco Stops German Feed Grain Imports Over Foot-and-Mouth Disease

Morocco has halted imports of feed grains from Germany following an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, the head of Morocco's grain trade federation (FNCL) said on Thursday.

The import suspension affected "all untreated plant-based feed intended for animal consumption from Germany due to the foot-and-mouth disease outbreak there," Omar Yacoubi told Reuters.

A source at Morocco's food safety agency ONSSA confirmed that plant-based imports from Germany for animal feed had been "suspended" until Germany is declared free of foot and mouth again or certifies local regions that are free of the disease...

Trump to Lay Out Trade Vision but Won't Impose New Tariffs Yet

President-elect Donald Trump is planning to issue a broad memorandum Monday that directs federal agencies to study trade policies and evaluate U.S. trade relationships with China and America's continental neighbors -- but stops short of imposing new tariffs on his first day in office, as many trading partners feared.

The presidential memo directs federal agencies to investigate and remedy persistent trade deficits and address unfair trade and currency policies by other nations, two longstanding Trump irritants. And it singles out China, Canada and Mexico for scrutiny, directing agencies...

APHIS Eases Trade Limits on Unvaccinated Poultry and Ducks from France and EPTR

The USDA's APHIS is easing trade restrictions imposed on October 1, 2023, regarding imports of unvaccinated live poultry from France and unvaccinated live ducks from the European Poultry Trade Region (EPTR), including Iceland, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, and Norway.

APHIS determined that the following live animal commodities are unlikely to receive vaccinations, and the HPAI vaccination campaign has not greatly impacted the risk of HPAI virus entering the U.S. through their importation:

• Non-duck poultry and hatching eggs from France
• Hatching eggs from France derived from unvaccinated...

ANALYSIS: Record-Breaking Lamb Imports Surge into the US in 2024

The US lamb market hit a historic high in 2024, with imports surpassing a total of 195 million pounds of fresh and frozen lamb cuts, according to USDA data. Fresh imports led the increase, reaching 106.9 million pounds due to rising domestic demand. Frozen imports contributed another 88.8 million pounds, partly driven by concerns about potential disruptions from US pork strikes on the East and Gulf Coasts in late 2024 and early 2025.

Despite challenges, such as a narrowly avoided port strike last week, top...

ANALYSIS: US Imported Beef Prices Hold Firm in the New Year Despite Rising Imports

Prices for imported Australian/New Zealand (Aus/NZ) and Brazilian beef remained buoyant in January 2025, showing no signs of easing despite increased supply. Lower domestic production has caused some participants to seek alternatives in the imported market.

Since November 2024, Aus/NZ beef has experienced a $13/cwt increase, or roughly 5%, supported by the lowest US cattle numbers in decades. Drought conditions over the past two years have contributed to a significant decline in US cattle numbers, which are now at their lowest...

German Meat Imports Bans Continue Despite No New FMD Cases

Germany’s Agriculture minister Cem Oezdemir said the country had not detected any more cases since the initial outbreak on Friday. However, the source of the disease has not yet been found.  

The ministry issued a ban on the transport of all cattle, pigs, sheep, goats, and camelids, as well as their bodies and body parts and their manure from or to an animal-keeping operation in the state of Brandenburg, where the outbreak happened. But the ban is due to end on January 15 at 11:59 p.m...

ANALYSIS: Economic Headwinds Drag China’s 2024 Meat Imports Down 9.7% to 6.66M mt

China’s 2024 total meat imports, including variety meats amounted to 6.66 million metric tons (mt), falling 9.7% compared to the previous year, according to the latest preliminary data from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China.

As the world’s largest meat importer since 2019, China’s meat imports in 2024 decreased for the fourth consecutive year. From the spillover effects of its recovery from African Swine Fever (ASF) and stockpiling efforts in 2023 to increased domestic production, economic challenges...

ANALYSIS: China's Beef Imports Under Scrutiny: Overview of Historical Data of Key Suppliers

China's Ministry of Commerce has formally initiated an investigation into the surge of beef imports, which domestic stakeholders claim is causing severe harm to local industries. The application, submitted by major agricultural and livestock associations, outlines a detailed case for imposing safeguard measures under the nation's trade remedies legislation. This move comes in response to a significant rise in beef imports with lower pricing of imports undermining the domestic market...

ANALYSIS: China’s Nov 2024 Beef Imports Hit 11-Month Highs at 261,343 mt

China's beef imports rose for the second consecutive month in November 2024, reaching 261,343 metric tons (mt), the highest level since January, according to data from the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC).

Climbing by 10.1% month-on-month (m-o-m), the tonnage was up by 24,079 mt amid higher volumes from Brazil, its largest supplier, along with notable contributions from Argentina, Uruguay and the United States (US).

Year-on-year (y-o-y), imports grew by 10.4% (+24,678 mt) driven primarily...

Impact of the EU-Mercosur Agreement on EU Beef Market

After 25 years of negotiations, the European Union (EU) and the Southern Common Market (Mercosur), comprising Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay, reached a landmark free-trade and cooperation agreement on December 6, 2024. In 2023, EU agri-food exports to Mercosur totalled €3.2 billion, and the new EU-Mercosur Free-Trade Agreement aims to substantially increase these exports by removing high tariffs on key EU export products. The following article examines the potential impact of the deal on the beef market...

FSIS Issues Public Health Alert for Ineligible Pork Products Imported From Ecuador

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) is issuing a public health alert for frozen ready-to-eat pork mortadella products that may have been illegally imported from Ecuador, a country ineligible to export meat and poultry products to the United States. FSIS is continuing to investigate the origins of this product, and there may be additional products affected.

The following products subject to the public health alert are [view labels]:

• 1-lb. vacuum-sealed packages containing “Mortadela ESPECIAL BOLOGNIA...

China Lifts Final Market Bans for Two Australian Beef Plants 

As of December 3rd, 2024, two Australian beef plants (Plant 1620 Australia Country Choice Production Pty Ltd and Plant 243 John Dee Warwick Pty Ltd) were approved for export to China, according to the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China.

The plants were banned from China’s market from 2021 and 2020 amid strained relationships between the two trading partners. 

“This is great news for Australian exporters, producers, and farmers... it’s a win for trade and a win for Australian jobs – something my Government will always back,” said Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.  

Mexican Cattle Imports to U.S. Suspended Following New World Screwworm Detection 

On November 22, 2024, Mexico's Chief Veterinary Officer notified the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) of a confirmed case of New World screwworm (NWS) in a cow in Chiapas, located near the Guatemalan border.

NWS, the larvae of a fly species, infest and feed on the living tissue of warm-blooded animals, posing a significant threat to livestock and other animals.

"With the northward spread of NWS, APHIS has ramped up its collaboration with Central American countries to combat this pest in affected regions," said Dr. Rosemary Sifford, Chief Veterinary Officer of the United States. "This recent detection in Mexico underscores the need to intensify these efforts to protect U.S. agriculture and restore the Central American barrier."...

ANALYSIS: China’s Oct 2024 Beef Imports Rebound to 7-Month High at 237,264 mt

China's October 2024 beef imports rose to a 7-month high to 237,264 metric tonnes (mt), according to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs People's Republic of China.

Increasing by 8.7% month-on-month (m-o-m), October 2024’s imports rose by 19,066 mt from September 2024’s 5-month low. This rebound was primarily fuelled by stronger shipments from Brazil, its largest supplier, along with notable contributions from Uruguay and New Zealand.

Year-on-year (y-o-y), imports...

Philippines Surpasses China in Brazilian Pork Imports as Sector Hits Record Shipment Revenues

The Philippines has emerged as Brazil's largest export market for pork in 2024 with 206,000 tonnes shipped between January and October, a 103% year-on-year increase, displacing China as the top importer who, during the same period purchased 199,900 tonnes, down 41% according to The Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA).

In October 2024, Brazil's pork exports, including fresh and processed products, reached 130,900 tonnes, representing the second-highest monthly total in the industry’s history and a 41% increase from the 93,000 tonnes...

ANALYSIS: Uruguay’s Beef Exports See 11.3% Monthly Rise in October, Yet Decline 11.9% Y-o-Y

In October 2024, Uruguay’s fresh beef exports reached 28,512 MT, based on the latest data from the Uruguayan National Customs Directorate. This is 11.3% higher than the previous month and marks a 11.9% drop Y-o-Y. On a YTD basis, cumulative exports now stand at 292,422 MT, up by 2.2% compared to the same period last year. Uruguay’s annual performance indicates resilience in export volumes, with exporters adjusting destination strategies in response to fluctuating demand and price conditions...

Trump's Return Could Spark Major Shifts in Agri-Food Trade

Donald Trump secured a victory over Kamala Harris in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election on November 5, marking a return to leadership that could bring sweeping changes to the agricultural commodities markets.

With a second term, Trump’s decisions could pave the way for notable shifts within trade policy, foreign relations and regulatory approaches.

At Expana’s Agri-Food Americas conference in Chicago last month, Alex Kazan, Partner and Geopolitical Co-Lead, Brunswick Group explained the massive impact the 2024 election would have on agricultural markets...

2024 Presidential Election Poised to Reshape U.S. Commodity Markets

As the 2024 Presidential Election quickly approaches, industry stakeholders are closely watching how the outcome could impact commodity markets, which are sensitive to shifts in policy and federal regulations.

When the new president takes office, businesses and consumers may see changes to key issues like trade and foreign policy. Stay tuned to Expana for continuous updates on how the election may affect agricultural and industrial markets.

Presidential Impact on International Trade

Changes in U.S. trade relations could either strengthen or disrupt markets for agricultural exports...

Two Australian Beef Plants Anticipated to Resume Exports to China by Year’s End

On November 3, Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell met with China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao at the China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai, where Wang assured Farrell that China would lift its remaining trade restrictions on Australian exports. 

Farrell noted that since last year’s expo, China has lifted tariffs on Australian wine and resumed exports from eight red meat facilities. China also plans to fully reopen its market to Australian rock lobsters by the end of this year.  

Despite the progress, two Australian beef plants (Plant 1620...

Understanding the Global Cattle Cycle's Role in Shifting Beef Trade and Prices

The Global beef cattle market is characterized by an interplay of cyclical trends, external pressures, and strategic management decisions across key regions. This whitepaper outlines the current state of the cattle industry in six major areas- the United States, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, and Mexico- highlighting key findings related to production, market pressures, and the potential outlook. As forces like weather, the economy, and trade dynamics shape the global beef landscape, industry stakeholders can stay ahead of the... 

ANALYSIS: US Boneless Beef Imports from Australia Soar, Domestic and Import 90s Gap Grows

The week of October 7th experienced 6,045 MT of boneless beef that cleared for entry into the United States, marking a significant 52-week high. This represents an impressive year-over-year increase of 53.5%. Australia plays a key role in the boneless beef market, exporting lean boneless beef to various countries, with the U.S. accounting for 32.6% of their exports, equating to 37,218 MT in September alone.

Even with more meat available on the market, the price of Aus/NZ...

Check Out The Super-EST Market In Town: Lidl Relaunches Brand In The US

Grocery shopping... as just another errand? Couldn't be us!

Buckle up, because Lidl US is here to take your tastebuds on a joyride through the aisles, offering the highest quality products at the lowest prices.

Introducing The Super-EST Market

We're putting the "super" in supermarket (make that The Super-EST Market) by delivering a curated collection of private label picks, global imports, and everyday name brands. With 170+ stores woven through neighborhoods across nine East Coast states and Washington, D.C...

ANALYSIS: China’s Sept 2024 Meat Imports Slump 4.3% M-o-M; Ends Two-Month Growth Streak

China’s total meat imports, including variety meats fell in September 2024, amounting to 540,543 metric tonnes (mt), according to the latest preliminary figures from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China. 

On a monthly basis, imports slipped 4.3% (-24,559 mt), partially affected by the shorter working month due to the observance of the Mid-Autumn festivities. 

Annually, imports plummeted by 9.2% (-54,457 mt) in September, marking the eighth consecutive month since the start of the year...

ILA Dockworkers to Return to Work as Port Strike Ends Following Tentative Agreement

Dockworkers from the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) returned to work on Friday after reaching a tentative wage agreement with the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX) Thursday, bringing an end to the three-day strike that halted shipping operations along the East and Gulf Coasts.

"Effective immediately, all current job actions will cease, and all work covered by the Master Contract will resume,” according to a joint statement issued by both parties Thursday. The Master Contract will be extended until January 15, 2025, giving negotiators additional...

Hurricane Helene Intensifies U.S. Agriculture Disruptions As Port Strike Officially Starts

Hurricane Helene, a powerful Category 4 storm, made landfall in Florida's Big Bend region on September 26, 2024. The storm caused widespread destruction across the southeastern U.S., with the death toll approaching 125 as of this writing. 

Its damaging winds, storm surge, and flooding led to power outages and infrastructure damage in Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and the Carolinas–with the Carolinas seemingly suffering the greatest impacts. Parts of North Carolina are submerged under water, where roads have been washed out and properties have been flattened. As of October 1...

ANALYSIS: Korea Poised for Early Activation of Safeguard Mechanism on Australian Beef Amid US Supply

Australian beef imports into Korea could face a tariff rate increase of 24.0% as the Special Agricultural Safeguard (SSG) mechanism is expected to activate earlier than in previous years. Korea's increasing reliance on Australian beef amid dwindling US supply has long suggested an earlier activation of the safeguard tariffs. 

Under the Korea-Australia Free Trade Agreement (KAFTA), the safeguard volume for this year is set at 188,437 metric tonnes (mt). Any imports exceeding this safeguard volume limit in 2024 will incur a tariff rate of 24.0%...

Biden-Harris Administration Delivers Over $26.7 Billion In Market Access for U.S. Agriculture

The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) today announced that the Biden-Harris Administration has secured over $26.7 billion in agricultural market access across the globe for America’s farmers, ranchers, fishers, and food manufacturers. Under President Biden and Vice President Harris’s leadership, United States Trade Representative Katherine Tai and Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack have worked to ensure American agriculture can reach global markets and customers around the world...