ANALYSIS: US Imported Beef Prices Hold Firm in the New Year Despite Rising Imports

Prices for imported Australian/New Zealand (Aus/NZ) and Brazilian beef remained buoyant in January 2025, showing no signs of easing despite increased supply. Lower domestic production has caused some participants to seek alternatives in the imported market.

Since November 2024, Aus/NZ beef has experienced a $13/cwt increase, or roughly 5%, supported by the lowest US cattle numbers in decades. Drought conditions over the past two years have contributed to a significant decline in US cattle numbers, which are now at their lowest...

ANALYSIS: New Year, Same Challenge: Bird Flu Continues to Wreak Havoc on the U.S. Shell Egg Market

The U.S. shell egg market saw its fifth consecutive week of increases as of Friday, driven by robust retail demand and ongoing supply constraints tied to the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Earlier in the week, moderating trade levels hinted that the market might be nearing its peak. However, the detection of two new bird flu cases, affecting approximately 3 million layers, dashed hopes of stabilization and, instead, accelerated market gains.

Retail demand has remained unusually...

The Retail Rundown: Weekly Protein Recap; CPI Update

Seafood leads protein advertising for a third consecutive week, accounting for nearly 31% of total ad space. Pork follows with nearly 23% and beef makes up 21%. Chicken represents 19% of the advertising share, while eggs capture less than 1%.

The seafood category shows mixed price trends year-over-year (YOY), with fresh cod fillets discounted to $8.37 per pound last week—down 53 cents from the previous year. Prices for catfish and tilapia remained steady YOY, each averaging about $6.60 discounted...

ANALYSIS: Brazilian Beef Exports fall 11.2% M-o-M in December, but Reach Record High in 2024

Brazilian beef exports dropped for the second consecutive month after hitting record high figure in September. According to the latest data released by the Brazilian Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services, shipments of fresh beef (frozen and chilled) totaled brazil202,567 MT last month, marking a monthly 11.2% decline from November’s 228,129 MT, and 2.8% lower compared to the same period last year. On an annual basis, this accounts for 2.55 million MT of beef exported last year, showing a notable 27% increase...

ANALYSIS: Economic Headwinds Drag China’s 2024 Meat Imports Down 9.7% to 6.66M mt

China’s 2024 total meat imports, including variety meats amounted to 6.66 million metric tons (mt), falling 9.7% compared to the previous year, according to the latest preliminary data from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China.

As the world’s largest meat importer since 2019, China’s meat imports in 2024 decreased for the fourth consecutive year. From the spillover effects of its recovery from African Swine Fever (ASF) and stockpiling efforts in 2023 to increased domestic production, economic challenges...

ANALYSIS: Early-Year Trends in Fats and Tallows

The by-products market enters 2025 with divergent trends between fats and tallows, following a particularly quiet end to 2024, where most participants maintained cautious positions amid policy uncertainties. Key industry concerns revolve around potential changes in oil trade dynamics and domestic energy policies, which could significantly influence market direction. 

Choice White Grease shows increased downward pressure as the year begins, reflecting efforts to stimulate buying interest and manage inventories. By contrast, the tallow market demonstrates notable firmness, with both renderer and packer grades strengthening as...

ANALYSIS: A 2024 Review of Broiler Headcounts, Hatchability, and Consumer Preference

2024 rounded out the year with a cumulative broiler headcount that was 1.2% below that of 2023. While this lower percentage doesn’t seem to fit the narrative of the past three months, it actually helps illustrate the adaptability of the industry in the wake of the lowest yearly hatchability average of the past five years.

In Q1, the headcount for 2024 was 2.7% lower than 2023. This shifted to 1.7% lower in Q2, 0.7% lower in Q3, and finally the numbers for Q4 of 2024...

ANALYSIS: Australia’s Beef Boom Sets 2024 Exports Record at 1.34M mt

Australia’s 2024 beef and veal exports scaled to fresh new highs to 1.34 million metric tons (mt), according to data from the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry (DAFF).

Pegging its annual growth at an impressive 24.1%, shipments jumped 261,163 mt compared to the same period last year. Following the 2019–2020 drought years, Australia in 2024 reaped the benefits of its herd rebuilding effort with record-high production levels, which supported strong export growth throughout the year.

The slump in US production...

ANALYSIS: First Edition of Expana's Monthly Pet Food Market Insight

Welcome to the Pet Food Market Insight report, your essential guide to navigating the dynamic and ever-evolving pet food industry. In this comprehensive report, we provide you with critical price and supply insights that are crucial for making informed decisions in today’s competitive market. These numbers are monthly averages, taken at month’s end. Whether you’re a manufacturer, supplier, or retailer, staying ahead of market trends and understanding the fluctuations in raw material costs, supply chain challenges, and consumer preferences...

The Retail Rundown: Post-Holiday Slowdown Influences January Spending 

January typically marks a slowdown in consumer spending as households transition from the holiday season to their regular routines.

Early in the month, retailers experience a short-lived boost in sales, driven by replenishment efforts after the holiday food rush. As schools reopen and guests leave, families restock essentials for breakfast, lunch, and weeknight meals.

This restocking coincides with New Year’s resolutions, especially those focused on healthier eating. Consequently, shoppers gravitate toward the perimeter of the stores where fresh items, including produce, proteins, and dairy, are featured. Although retail...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Industry Faces Record Low Harvests During a Period of Rising Demand

November’s turkey slaughter numbers set a new seasonal low, with 16.4 million head of turkeys harvested. This continues the trend observed throughout 2024, during which five of the previous ten months recorded harvest values that set new record lows for their respective months. Notably, the lowest harvest ever recorded occurred in March, with only 15.5 million turkeys processed.

The industry is undoubtedly feeling the impact of these cutbacks, particularly during a period of strong retail demand for turkey parts and raw materials... 

ANALYSIS: November Turkey Cold Storage Indicative of Demand Patterns

In comparison to market pricing, November’s cold storage report may seem contradictory in a couple of instances. However, upon closer inspection, it’s actually very indicative of the state of the market.

The total month-over-month (MoM) change was slightly less dramatic than the 5-year average, with a 34.1% decrease from this past October to November. This is compared to a 5-year average decrease of 46.4%. This was primarily driven by fewer whole birds and breasts exiting the freezer this November, as these two categories made up..

ANALYSIS: China's Beef Imports Under Scrutiny: Overview of Historical Data of Key Suppliers

China's Ministry of Commerce has formally initiated an investigation into the surge of beef imports, which domestic stakeholders claim is causing severe harm to local industries. The application, submitted by major agricultural and livestock associations, outlines a detailed case for imposing safeguard measures under the nation's trade remedies legislation. This move comes in response to a significant rise in beef imports with lower pricing of imports undermining the domestic market...

ANALYSIS: Brazilian Beef Exports Slide 15.6% M-o-M in November 2024

Brazilian beef exports slowed down notably in November after hitting record highs in previous months this year. According to the Brazilian Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services, last month’s exports of fresh (frozen and chilled) beef totaled 228,129 MT, down by 15.6% compared to October’s 270,331 MT, and 21.4% higher than the equivalent month last year. Year-to-Date, Brazilian shipments reached 2.3 million MT, which already surpasses the total volume exported in all of 2023 by 16.9%, heading towards a new annual record high...

ANALYSIS: US 2024 Choice Brisket Prices Firm in December

With the year-end holidays coming to a close and St. Patrick’s Day on the horizon, it’s the perfect time to take a closer look at a crowd favorite, the choice brisket. This item entered 2024 on a strong note, starting at $3.74/lb, a significant 29% increase compared to the previous year. However, brisket prices peaked in January at $3.89/lb before declining to their yearly low of $3.24/lb in mid-February as demand softened after the holiday season...

ANALYSIS: Jumbo Boneless Chicken Breast Prices Unseasonably Robust as Popularity Grows

Quotations for jumbo boneless breast meat started this year closely following the 5-year average quotations...

ANALYSIS: Market Dynamics and Supply Constraints Drive Record High Turkey Neck Prices

Current frozen tom turkey neck quotations have exceeded the previous all-time high of $1.07 that was seen in late August of 2022...

ANALYSIS: Peak Season Lifts New Zealand’s Nov 2024 Beef Exports 39.4% M-o-M to 38,576 mt

New Zealand’s November 2024 beef exports rebounded a whopping 39.4% month-on-month (m-o-m) to 38,576 metric tonnes (mt), according to the latest Stats NZ data.

Increasing by 10,907 mt from October 2024’s five-month decline, the key driver was increased production as New Zealand exits from its off season. In line with seasonal output trends, the higher tonnage saw high volumes shipped to all key destinations such as the United States (US), China, Japan and Korea...

ANALYSIS: China’s Nov 2024 Beef Imports Hit 11-Month Highs at 261,343 mt

China's beef imports rose for the second consecutive month in November 2024, reaching 261,343 metric tons (mt), the highest level since January, according to data from the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC).

Climbing by 10.1% month-on-month (m-o-m), the tonnage was up by 24,079 mt amid higher volumes from Brazil, its largest supplier, along with notable contributions from Argentina, Uruguay and the United States (US).

Year-on-year (y-o-y), imports grew by 10.4% (+24,678 mt) driven primarily...

ANALYSIS: U.S. Chicken Exports in October Trail at Five-Year Lows

The total volume of chicken exported in October was up from September, but just barely. This was especially evident in comparison to the 5-year average month-over-month (MoM) change. This October there was a 0.1% MoM increase in the total volume of chicken sold to international buyers in the U.S., a far cry from the 12.6% 5-year average.

Interestingly, the top three destinations pulled much larger volumes than they typically do in October, while the amount of production going to many of the...

ANALYSIS: October U.S. Turkey Exports Below Average Amid Lower Production and Higher Prices

The total month-over-month (MoM) change in the volume of turkey exported for October was up 7.6% compared to a 5-year average increase of 15.9%. The top four U.S. turkey export destinations, Mexico, Panama, Guatemala, and Canada, all had lower export volumes this October compared to the 5-year average, while the Bahamas, the fifth largest buyer, purchased more than on average.

Likely, much of the lower-than-average volumes of turkey exported can be attributed to more limited...

ANALYSIS: US Shell Egg Prices Shatter Records Amid Bird Flu Losses, Strong Holiday Demand

US shell egg prices have surged to new all-time highs, fueled by a potent combination of avian flu-related production losses and heightened retail demand throughout the holiday baking season. Expana’s benchmark Midwest large quotation climbed to $5.47 per dozen on Tuesday, narrowly edging past the previous record of $5.46 set in December 2022.

The ongoing spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) has intensified since mid-October, claiming approximately 17 million layers and pullets over the past two months...

ANALYSIS: Korea's Nov 2024 Beef Imports Slump to a 9-Month Low at 33,140 mt

Korea’s November 2024 beef imports dropped to the lowest levels since February this year to 33,140 metric tons (mt), according to the latest Korea Customs Service data.

Volumes fell 29.0% or 13,557 mt month-on-month (m-o-m), marking a sharp decline from October 2024's figures, which had reached 46,697 mt, a 9-month high.

Lower tonnages from its major suppliers Australia, the United States (US), as well as New Zealand, Canada, and Mexico contributed to the shrinkage...

ANALYSIS: Proposition 12 Effect on Reporting Volumes for Pork

The USDA Pork Specialty Report, issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), focuses on niche and specialty pork products, offering detailed insights into pricing, volume, and market trends for categories not typically covered in broader pork market reports. These categories include specialty programs such as open pen gestation, crate-free, antibiotic-free, no-antibiotics-ever, pre-priced and labeled cuts, color-graded, breed-specific, quality-graded, and organic products.

Notably, the report began incorporating Proposition 12-compliant material in 2023...

The Retail Rundown: Robust Retail Spending This Holiday Season

Retail spending has been robust this year, with recent data released by the U.S. Census Bureau indicating strong retail sales as the holiday season kicked off in November.

According to the Census Bureau, overall retail sales in November rose 0.7 percent month-over-month (MOM) and increased 3.8 percent year-over-year (YOY) In comparison, October saw gains of 0.5 percent MOM and 2.9 percent YOY.

“Job and wage gains, modest inflation and a heathy balance sheet have led to solid holiday spending," said National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz...

ANALYSIS: A Seasonal Snapshot of Choice Chuck Rolls in 2024

The Choice chuck roll has been on quite a journey this year, riding a roller coaster of highs and lows in the market. Let’s dive into where this versatile cut stands today and how it got here.

Back in late August, prices took an unexpected turn upward, defying the usual trend of softening in the back half of the month. Starting at $3.65/lb in early August, choice chuck rolls climbed an impressive 62% to its peak of $5.92/lb in October. However...

ANALYSIS: UK Beef Market Update-December 2024

UK beef prices continued to trend upwards as cattle prices continued to rise in December 2024. The UK cattle deadweight price reached GBP 5.43/kg, up 4.3% month-on-month (m-o-m) and year-on-year (y-o-y) in early December 2024. Some market reports indicate strong festive demand, which is expected to help sustain prices through the winter months.

UK beef production in 2024 is projected to reach 933,000 tonnes, representing a 4% increase compared to 2023. This growth is primarily driven by a rise in prime...

ANALYSIS: EU Free-Range Egg Prices Remain Firm Despite Broader Shell Egg Market Weakening

Following 16 weeks of rising prices, industrial shell egg prices in the EU saw a relief in the first week of December, particularly in the Cage and Barn egg categories, which saw significant price drops. However, Free-Range eggs remained an exception, with market participants continuing to face challenges in sourcing them. Despite the typical slowdown in buying activity as the retail and manufacturing sectors wrap up their year-end buying, Free-Range egg prices have remained resilient, holding steady at a...

ANALYSIS: Impact of the USDA Suspension on Mexico-US Cattle Trade

Mexico, as a key beef exporter to the United States (US) market, faces a commercial landscape influenced by multiple factors, including fluctuations in the peso-dollar exchange rate, domestic market conditions, and international sanitary regulations.

During the first half of 2024, the strengthening of the peso against the dollar reduced the competitiveness of Mexican exports, as domestic market prices surpassed those available in the US market. However, in the second half of the year, the strengthening of the dollar boosted exports by offering better returns for producers...

ANALYSIS: Is HPAI Impacting the U.S. Chicken Market?

In the past couple of years, different sectors of the poultry industry in the U.S. have had to deal with an ongoing outbreak of HPAI. The current surge began on February 8, 2022, when a commercial turkey flock in Indiana was confirmed to have contracted the virus. Since then, losses of commercial birds have been reported in thirty-four states and approximately 8.97 million commercial broiler breeders and broilers have been affected. While this is certainly a large number, it is only 0.03% of chicks placed.

Turkeys and layers have...

ANALYSIS: US Boneless Beef Imports Double Year-over-Year for November

According to the US Food Safety and Inspection Service’s Meat Passed for Entry report, 77,719 MT of boneless trimmings were accepted into the US. This represents a 32.17% increase compared to October, reflecting the typical seasonal rise seen toward the end of the year. However, this year's increase came earlier than usual, as the volume of boneless trimmings typically peaks in December. Year-over-year, this marks a 106.42% change for November.

Australia led the way, supplying 39.3% of the total, with 30,556 MT of boneless...

ANALYSIS: Impact of HPAI and Metapneumovirus on Livability in the Turkey Industry

Issues with HPAI and metapneumovirus in the past couple of years have significantly impacted livability in the turkey industry. The current outbreak of HPAI began on February 8, 2022, when a commercial turkey flock in Indiana was confirmed to have contracted the virus. Since then, losses of commercial birds have been reported in thirty-four states and approximately 15.8 million commercial turkey breeders and meat birds have been affected. Losses due to HPAI are highest in the spring and fall through areas of active wild bird migratory traffic...

ANALYSIS: U.S. Beef Rib Pushing Towards All-Time Records

With year-end holidays approaching, the bone-in rib is once again front and center in the beef market. Over the past year, this item was largely kept at arm’s length as market participants contended with what appeared to be reserved consumer demand. Consequently, prices for the bone-in ribeye throughout the year lagged behind year-ago levels.

Fast forward to today, and prices have not only kept pace but have also surpassed last year’s high of $12.50/lb., currently...

ANALYSIS: Main Drivers Behind EU Retail Egg Prices in Q4 2024

According to the European Commission, medium/large egg prices averaged €2.28 per kilogram during October and November 2024, and are currently at €2.43 per kilogram, marking a 23.07% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 6.7% year-on-year rise. The surge in egg prices during Q4 2024 can be attributed to a combination of factors.

Firstly, the seasonal demand typical of Q4 has had an immediate effect on prices. This seasonal increase is particularly significant in a market where the EU faces limited self-sufficiency...

ANALYSIS: China’s Nov 2024 Meat Imports Break 15-Month Y-o-Y Decline Streak to 580,619 mt

China’s total meat imports, including variety meats rebounded to 580,619 metric tonnes (mt) in November 2024, ending a 15-month year-over-year decline streak, according to the latest preliminary data from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China. 

Imports were higher by 8.6% or 23,619 mt month-on-month (m-o-m) ahead of the winter peak season.  

Meat consumption typically increases ahead of the cooler season, with a notable rise in demand for...

The Retail Rundown: Seasonal Trends for Ribs vs. Hams

With Christmas just two weeks away, this week’s retail rundown takes a closer look at two traditional holiday centerpieces: rib roasts and hams. These festive favorites have followed differing paths in the wholesale markets this year, potentially influencing their retail performance in the lead-up to the year-end celebrations.

The wholesale rib market began its seasonal ascent in the third quarter, gaining traction in early August. From August 1 through December 10, prices surged by 42 percent, far surpassing the 5-year average increase of 17 percent for the same period...

ANALYSIS: Australia's Nov 2024 Beef Exports Ease 8.6% M-o-M From Record Highs to 118,878 mt

Australia’s beef and veal exports in Nov 2024 saw an 8.6% month-on-month (m-o-m) decline, falling to 118,878 metric tonnes (mt), according to the latest data from the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry (DAFF).

This 11,171 mt monthly decrease followed a record high back in Oct 2024, when exports reached 130,048 mt. In line with traditional patterns, this fall was led by lower shipments to key destinations, including the United States (US), Korea, and southeast...

ANALYSIS: Tariff-Driven Spike to Freight Rates Yet to Materialize

The re-election of US President-elect Donald Trump, on November 5, sparked speculation about the outlook for global trade, given the stringent tariff regime that he has stated he will impose. Some initial reactions expected the effects on international shipping and freight rates to be significant, with a short-term price spike resulting from US importers boosting their inventories before the tariffs come into effect. The results so far, however, have been more tepid than anticipated.

During his campaign, Trump indicated his intention...

ANALYSIS: October Cold Storage Report, Chicken Inventories Continue to Deplete YoY

While more chicken was put up for several lines than was seasonally anticipated, cold storage inventories of nearly all lines with the exceptions of drumsticks and paws continued to be lower year-over-year (YoY). Additionally, total frozen holdings of chicken in the month of October were approximately 70.8 million pounds lower than the 5-year average. Considering that the year-to-date (YTD) total live weight is at the highest value ever recorded and October's live weights were at record-breaking levels...

ANALYSIS: EU Shell Egg Prices Show Signs of Stabilization

Since early September, shell-egg prices have surged by 60.7%, driven primarily by robust retail demand. As the dominant distribution channel for eggs, the retail sector has absorbed a substantial share of available supply, leaving fewer eggs for breaking operations. Consumers continue to favor eggs as a cost-effective protein alternative, particularly as prices for other proteins, such as beef, have risen significantly throughout the year.

Seasonal factors have further bolstered demand. Cooler autumn weather has encouraged more home cooking, driving up egg consumption...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Cold Storage Decline Continues with 27.8% Drop in October Amid Tightening Supplies

Total turkey cold storage fell -27.8% month-over-month (MoM), continuing the downward momentum in the volume of turkey in warehouses. While following an average trendline, total frozen inventories of turkey have gradually moved from the thirteenth lowest value ever recorded for the month of January to the third lowest in October. In fact, market input suggests that some storage facilities are holding well below 50% of capacity. While this is likely not the case for all facilities since October’s total is...

ANALYSIS: Japan's Oct 2024 Beef Imports Rebound from 7-month Low to 43,937 Mt

Japan’s October 2024 beef imports bounced back strongly, rising by 15.1% month-on-month (m-o-m) to 43,937 metric tonnes (mt), according to the latest statistics by Trade Statistics of Japan.

Recovering from September 2024’s seven-month low, this 5,760 mt surge was driven by higher tonnage from its major suppliers such as the United States (US), Australia, Canada and New Zealand, despite declines were noted from Mexico and Uruguay.

Earlier in summer, Japan’s beef market grappled with reduced...

ANALYSIS: EU Dried Egg-White Market Navigates Evolving Dynamics and Challenges

In September 2024, the European Commission reported that EU dried egg white exports reached 11,459 tonnes, reflecting a slight 3.2% month-on-month decline from August. Despite this dip, cumulative exports for the year are up 23.92% compared to the same period in 2023, indicating strong overall growth. 

Both the liquid and dried egg white markets have experienced significant volatility in recent years.  In early December 2022, average prices for cage egg white powder reached a record high of 20.25 €/kg, prompting buyers to seek...

The Retail Rundown: Diving into December Deals

With the year-end holidays soon approaching, shoppers are eagerly diving into December deals. Retailers aim to capitalize on the season's spending surge with enticing offers on everything from festive foods to decadent desserts, decor, and other holiday items. 

Consumer spending on winter holidays is projected to hit a record-breaking $902 per person this year, according to a survey by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics. This figure marks a $25 increase from 2023 and surpasses the previous record set in 2019 by $16...

The Retail Rundown: Holiday Features in Full Display

In the final stretch to Thanksgiving, turkey ads dominate protein advertisements this week with 29 percent, up from 11.8 percent the week prior and surpassing pork's 26.4 percent. Seafood ads come in at 20.2 percent, followed by beef at 16.4 percent. Chicken takes 6 percent, while eggs still have less than one percent of retail buying opportunities.

Fresh whole turkeys account for half of all turkey promotions, with frozen turkeys making up 40.5 percent. While turkeys take center stage, the holiday season also lifts demand for cold-weather comfort foods and convenient...

ANALYSIS: Shifting Retail Turkey Trends, Disease-Related Adjustments

So far this year we’re seeing a major decline in the number of fresh whole turkeys bought from retailers in Q4. Interestingly, this decreased call doesn’t look like it has much to do with the current price of turkey at retail. Additionally, price and distribution changes vary between the different size categories of turkeys, proving that not all turkey is created equal.

The changes to retail price and distribution of the larger turkeys (16-24 lbs. and >24 lbs.) are fairly straightforward. From the start of Q4...

ANALYSIS: U.S. Imported Beef Least Cost Formulation Effects on Mixed Trimmings 85% in Fall 2024

Throughout the course of October, Aus/NZ MXT 85 on the spot market dropped in value by $18/cwt after trading at $289/cwt levels at the end of September. Entering November, the number was at $271/cwt and has remained generally steady at that mark.

End users of boneless beef trim typically use different lean percentage items to formulate their finished products. Given this flexibility, buyers can select from different trim options based on price and specific...

ANALYSIS: Thanksgiving Bird Choices - Trends, Prices, and Consumer Preferences for Whole Chicken

Chicken isn’t what most people think of when they consider a Thanksgiving dinner. Nevertheless, there are consumers who will swap out a whole chicken for a whole turkey. A bird is a bird, after all. Some potential reasons include taste (some people prefer chicken), ease of handling, and serving size. Since chickens are smaller birds, they take less time to cook. It’s also much easier to find a pre-cooked rotisserie chicken than it is to find a pre-cooked whole turkey...  

ANALYSIS: Demand Outpaces Supply for Brazilian Beef

The Brazilian ”Boi Gordo” cattle price index reached BRL 344.20/15 Kg as of November 18 close, marking a year on year increase of 46%. According to Expanas Brazilian Beef Analyst, Augusto Eto, the increase is due to high demand from both domestic and export markets, a reduction in the supply of animals ready for slaughter and a favorable exchange rate with the Brazilian Real weakening approximately 18% against the U.S. Dollar since the beginning of the year.

Data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE)...

ANALYSIS: Mexican Beef Cutout Dynamics

In 2024, the Mexican beef market experienced significant shifts, driven by fluctuating domestic and export opportunities. By mid-November, the total carcass value reached MXN 107.91/kg, marking steady price increases across most primal categories. These increases have been the result of consistent interest across all segments of the market, fueled by higher domestic consumption and increased exports. This dynamic has led to a generalized rise in primal values, ultimately pushing the overall cutout to... 

Ribs have emerged as the top-performing category, closing at MXN 134.49/kg, driven by... 

ANALYSIS: China’s Oct 2024 Beef Imports Rebound to 7-Month High at 237,264 mt

China's October 2024 beef imports rose to a 7-month high to 237,264 metric tonnes (mt), according to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs People's Republic of China.

Increasing by 8.7% month-on-month (m-o-m), October 2024’s imports rose by 19,066 mt from September 2024’s 5-month low. This rebound was primarily fuelled by stronger shipments from Brazil, its largest supplier, along with notable contributions from Uruguay and New Zealand.

Year-on-year (y-o-y), imports...

ANALYSIS: U.S Beef Tenderloin Holiday Trends

With Thanksgiving in view, it seemed to be a good time to give an update on beef tenderloins as the next slated holiday will be Christmas and New Years. Tenderloins have had a rough year when comparing prices year-over-year. On average, prices have tracked about 10% below year-ago levels for choice tenderloins. Speaking to the cost-conscious environment, the beef industry has found itself in this year. Fast-forward to today’s price, choice tenderloins currently sit at $15.75/lb. which is about 6% below year-ago levels for the same...

The Retail Rundown: Turkey Takes the Spotlight

According to Circana data, fresh whole turkeys were featured at an average discounted price of $1.48 per pound last week, up from $1.27 per pound during the same period last year.

The most popular turkey sizes, 10–15 and 16–24 pounds, averaged $1.34 per pound, compared to $1.00–$1.10 per pound last year. These prices reflect pre-promotion rates and do not account for additional discounts or free turkey offers.

Whole turkeys are often used as loss leaders to increase holiday store...

ANALYSIS: Record September for U.S. Pork Exports as Markets Shift

The U.S. pork export market has taken center stage recently, with USDA data for September revealing a record-high export volume of 549 million pounds—the highest for this month in 54 years. This milestone reflects the U.S.'s growing strength in global markets, bolstered in part by declining European pork production, which has diminished their export presence.

Year-to-date, U.S. pork exports are up approximately 5% compared to this same period last year, though they remain slightly below 2021 levels...

ANALYSIS: Korea's Oct 2024 Beef Imports Climb to 9-Month High, In-Month Volumes Highest Since 1994

Korea’s October 2024 beef imports rose to the highest levels since January 2024, reaching 46,697 mt, according to the latest Korea Customs Service data.

Volumes surged by 21.0% (8,117 mt) month-on-month (m-o-m), fuelled by higher imports from its key suppliers, Australia and the United States (US).

In-month October 2024's figures were the highest on record since 1994, driven by subdued imports earlier in the year and a rush...

ANALYSIS: September Chicken Exports Defy Trend with 1.8% MoM Growth

In the month of September, total chicken exports were up 1.8% month-over-month (MoM). This is interesting as the 5-year average MoM change is a decline of -4.2% from August to September.  The increased volumes resulted in September being the first month since February, when export levels were not at the lowest point since 2019. Part of the relatively large volumes of chicken exported were likely due to the value of chicken compared to other proteins in September...

ANALYSIS: Monthly Seasonal Turkey Export Volume Sets Stage for Holidays

From August to September, the total volume of turkey exported decreased month-over-month (MoM) by -6.4%, a slightly more prominent decrease than the 5-year average change of -2.9%. While there were some large MoM increases in export volumes to countries such as Panama, Guatemala, and Jamaica, they did little to sway the overall trend. The volume of U.S. turkey exported to Mexico was responsible for approximately 72.4% of the total export volume. With Mexico importing -8.9% less turkey than the month before, it's no surprise...

The Retail Rundown: This Year's Thanksgiving Dinner May Cost Less 

This week’s protein promotions spotlight seafood, which makes up 33.1 percent of all ads, with pork following at 25.6 percent and beef at 24.3 percent. Chicken features come in at 13 percent, while turkey ads saw a small increase to 3.8 percent, up from 3.3 percent last week but below the 5 percent seen two weeks prior.

Frozen turkeys make up 27 percent of all turkey ads, up 25.7 percent last week, with prices ranging between $2.79 and $5.00 discounted last week.

According to the Expana Thanksgiving Dinner Index 2024...

ANALYSIS: Soaring EU Egg Imports 

When looking at the first eight months of the year, import volume of shell eggs in the EU more than tripled in the last two years. Extra-EU imports increased by 234% from 12,826 MT in 2022 (Jan-Aug) to 42,889 MT this year (Jan-Aug). This represents 62.2 million euros so far for 2024, down 7% year over year, but up 170% since 2022. 

The main supplier of the EU for eggs is Ukraine, which has a free-trade agreement with the EU. Despite some quotas in place, Ukraine...  

ANALYSIS: September USDA Data Shows Strong Growth in U.S. Pork Exports

The latest USDA export data for September paints a positive picture for the U.S. pork industry, with total pork exports reaching their highest levels in a decade. This impressive growth, a 7.2% surge compared to September of last year, is a continuation of a positive trend that began in mid-June.

Emerging markets in Latin America continue to be a significant driver of growth in U.S. pork exports.  Central and South America experienced impressive year-over-year increases of 30.1% and 43.2%, respectively.  Caribbean destinations such as the...

ANALYSIS: China’s Oct 2024 Meat Imports Extend 15-Month YoY Decline Streak, Reaching 534,675 mt

China’s total meat imports, including variety meats in October 2024 were recorded at 534,675 metric tonnes (m)t, based on the latest preliminary data from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China.

Imports dipped by just 1.1% m-o-m (-5,868 mt), falling for the second month, as firmer winter demand offset any significant declines.  

Volumes were also supported by its major supplier Brazil’s beef exports hitting record highs, but its poultry exports to China have...

ANALYSIS: Chicken Industry in Unseasonable Standoff Between Demand Patterns and Supplies

The chicken industry is engaged in a standoff between demand patterns and supplies. So far, the call for chicken this year has barely given up any ground, in a rather unseasonable manner.

The chicken index is a weighted average value composed of some of the lines in the chicken market including items like boneless breast meat and leg quarters. Since it is a formulation of several of the main components, it can be used as a rough indicator of market strength or weakness and seasonal trends...

ANALYSIS: Uruguay’s Beef Exports See 11.3% Monthly Rise in October, Yet Decline 11.9% Y-o-Y

In October 2024, Uruguay’s fresh beef exports reached 28,512 MT, based on the latest data from the Uruguayan National Customs Directorate. This is 11.3% higher than the previous month and marks a 11.9% drop Y-o-Y. On a YTD basis, cumulative exports now stand at 292,422 MT, up by 2.2% compared to the same period last year. Uruguay’s annual performance indicates resilience in export volumes, with exporters adjusting destination strategies in response to fluctuating demand and price conditions...

ANALYSIS: EU Liquid Yolk Prices Hit Record Highs Amid Supply Crunch

The European Union's egg market continues to experience a significant imbalance between supply and demand. Retail demand has been relentless throughout much of this year, leaving few eggs available for breaking, while feedback indicates that egg production across the EU has struggled to meet the heightened demand.

The industry's output is being constrained by a combination of factors. Primarily, producers are grappling with the complexities and increased costs associated with the transition towards cage-free egg production systems, in line with evolving animal welfare standards. Additionally...

ANALYSIS: Imported Boneless Beef Trimmings from Argentina to the U.S. Hit All-Time High

According to the latest Meat Passed for Entry Report issued by the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) released on November 1st, Argentina passed 2,019 MT of boneless trimmings into the United States on the week of October 21st. This marks a record high for Argentine imports to the United States. The last record high spike occurred in September of 2020 when 1,535 MT of boneless trimmings were imported from Argentina. Still, that is a 31.53% increase from the last spike to the most recent one... 

ANALYSIS: U.S. Egg Market Faces Pressure as Price Hikes Cool Consumer Demand

Retail demand across the U.S. has grown increasingly varied this week, influenced by rising shelf prices and differing Thanksgiving preparation timelines among retailers. Over the past week, nearly all retail outlets have raised their shelf prices, reflecting last month’s more than 100% increase in wholesale values. However, these adjustments have been far from uniform. Most large-scale chains are pricing conventional large eggs around $3.00 per dozen, while smaller, regional stores are seeing prices surge above $4.00—and, in some cases...

ANALYSIS: Australia's Oct 2024 Beef Exports Hit Fresh All-Time High; YTD Exceeds 1 Million Mt

Australia’s beef and veal exports for October 2024 reached a fresh all-time high at 130,048 mt, according to the latest figures from the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry (DAFF).

While October 2024 export figures exceeded July 2024’s high of 129,998 mt by a narrow margin of 50 mt, they reflected a month-on-month (m-o-m) increase of 14.0% (+16,002 mt). This rise was driven by higher shipments to key destinations, including the...

ANALYSIS: U.S Choice Bone-In Ribs Rise into the Holiday Period

As the holiday season approaches, Choice bone-in ribs have returned to the conversation. Looking back, this item has shown consistent upward momentum over the past month. It started October at $9.24/lb., approximately 10% lower than its year-ago level. Since then, the price has steadily risen to its current value of $11.03/lb., or roughly a 19% increase, surpassing 2023 year-to-date price of $10.93/lb.

In a similar trend, 2023 also saw...

ANALYSIS: Put Your Turkey Where Your Mouth Is

This year’s per capita turkey consumption estimate is 13.9 lbs., a 9.0% decline from the 5-year average. In response, year-to-date (YTD) turkey slaughter is at a record low of 157.2 million, representing a 6.2% decrease year-over-year (YoY) and a 6.6% drop from the 5-year average. Notably, while both hen and tom harvest numbers are below the 5-year average, they have not decreased YoY. This trend reflects shifts in turkey production, driven by evolving consumption patterns...

The Retail Rundown: Holiday Countdown Rapidly Winds Down

With Thanksgiving just three weeks away, the holiday rush is fueling retail traffic as shoppers stock up on essentials. This week, turkey promotions account for 3.3 percent of all protein ads, down from 5 percent the previous week. The number of grocery chains featuring turkeys also declined, with 39 chains participating, compared to 49 chains a week earlier.

Despite fewer promotions, fresh whole turkey sales rose week-over-week, reaching $1.3 million last week, up from $909,368 the week prior, according to Circana...

ANALYSIS: Argentina’s Beef Exports Rose Modest 3.0% in September, Still Marking a 44.5% Y-o-Y Surge

Argentina’s beef exports reached 70,806 MT in September 2024, according to the latest data from the National Institute of Statistics and Census. Although this figure shows a modest 3.0% M-o-M increase, it still remains 44.5% higher compared to the same period last year.

China continues to represent a significant portion of market share, absorbing 68.9% of total Argentina’s beef exports, equivalent to 49,521 MT. This represents a slight 2.4% drop compared to the previous month, but still...

ANALYSIS: Japan's Sept 2024 Beef Imports Plummets to 7-Month Low Amid High Inventory Pressure

Japan’s beef imports in September 2024 plunged 21.9% month-on-month (m-o-m) to a seven-month low, totalling 38,177 metric tonnes (mt), as reported by Trade Statistics of Japan.

At the lowest level since February 2024, this 10,707 mt decline was mainly led by lower volumes from its major suppliers, apart from Mexico. This monthly slowdown traces back to lingering challenges from Japan’s scorching summer, which curtailed foodservice consumption and led to inventory buildups across key regions such as Tokyo... 

ANALYSIS: Turkey Cold Storage Continues Descent

Keeping in line with August's overarching theme, September's latest public warehouse holdings report reveals an ongoing tug-of-war between historically low production levels and seasonally tepid demand for key items like turkey breasts. The most recent inventory report brought with it a modest 1.4%, or 6 million pound, uptick in total holdings when compared with the year prior. Despite this slight advance from 2023, at 427 million pounds, September’s reading still resides at the fourth lowest seasonal level in nearly three decades; highlighting this year’s 3% year-over-year (YoY)... 

The Retail Rundown: Late-Season Push for Grilling Cuts

As October ends, beef and seafood promotions are neck and neck, each occupying about 25 percent of total advertising space. During the final week of "Pork-tober, pork features account for 20.8 percent of buying opportunities, closely followed by chicken at 20.6 percent.

Though the shift from grilling cuts to roasts has been in motion for a few weeks, a forecast of record warmth in parts of the central and eastern U.S. this week offers a last chance for backyard cooking before winter sets in.

This could spur late-season promotions...

ANALYSIS: US Boneless Beef Imports from Australia Soar, Domestic and Import 90s Gap Grows

The week of October 7th experienced 6,045 MT of boneless beef that cleared for entry into the United States, marking a significant 52-week high. This represents an impressive year-over-year increase of 53.5%. Australia plays a key role in the boneless beef market, exporting lean boneless beef to various countries, with the U.S. accounting for 32.6% of their exports, equating to 37,218 MT in September alone.

Even with more meat available on the market, the price of Aus/NZ...

ANALYSIS: U.S. Egg Prices Surge to Record October Highs on Retail Strength, Bird Flu Cases

U.S. shell egg prices have surged to a record October high of $4.32 per dozen—a staggering 95% increase since the start of a rapid rally that began on October 10. This rise in prices comes as strong retail demand coincides with a fresh wave of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), which has impacted layer populations and intensified the tight supply situation.

Retail demand has been exceptionally robust in recent weeks, spurred by scattered promotional activity and widespread price cuts...

ANALYSIS: Pork 42% Trim Outpaces Beef 50% Trim

When analyzing UB Pork 42% Trimmings and UB Beef 50% Fresh Chemical Lean Trimmings, both commonly used in hot dog and sausage processing, the weekly average price for pork 42s is trending about 26.2% higher than the weekly average price of beef 50s. This is due to limited supplies of pork 42 trimmings on the spot market, while beef 50s have been experiencing fully adequate to ample availability, with softer demand also noted.

Frozen pork trim supplies in cold storage have trended below year-ago levels throughout the...

ANALYSIS: Korea's 2024 Safeguard on Australian Beef Kicks In, 43 Days Earlier Y-o-Y

As of 24^th October, Australian beef imports into Korea has exhausted its 2024 Special Agricultural Safeguard (SSG) volumes, according to the Korea Customs Service website.

Imports exceeding this volume now incur a tariff rate of 24.0% for the remainder of the year, up from the current rate of 10.6%. This activation occurred significantly earlier than last year’s 8th December 2023 trigger date, representing a difference of approximately 43 days.

Just earlier on 14th October 2024, Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) has reported that Australia had...

ANALYSIS: Hang-gliding Chicken Thigh Meat

Thigh meat quotations started being recorded in November of 1997. Since then, in over two-thirds of the years, the quotation has decreased from Q3 to Q4. The last year in which quotations were higher on average in Q4 compared to Q3 was 2018 when they were higher by an average of 1%. In the past five years, there's been an average decline in value of approximately -26%, with annual average changes ranging from -6% in 2019 to -52% in 2022. As we enter Q4 of this year, market participants...

ANALYSIS: New Zealand's Sept 2024 Beef Exports Tumble to 11-Month Low amid Seasonal Slowdown

New Zealand’s September 2024 beef exports plummeted to an 11-month low, recording at 29,110 metric tonnes (mt), according to the latest data from Stats NZ. This marks the fourth consecutive month of decline, with exports falling by 8.3% (-2,631 mt) compared to August 2024.

The lower tonnage saw reduced exports to key clients such as the United States (US), Japan and Korea, while increased allocations to Canada, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia helped offset further falls...

ANALYSIS: A Turkey Balancing Act

The turkey industry as a whole continues to find itself at a crossroads, with cold storage numbers dwindling and slaughter and hatchery data similarly declining. While some of the slowdown in production is intentional, aiming to counter sluggish consumer demand, disease-related complications—both past and ongoing—remain a significant concern. Uncertainty surrounding future production has left many market participants on edge as the year-end approaches and 2025 looms.

Delving into the numbers, the latest USDA cold storage report showed total turkey inventories edging... 

ANALYSIS: Mexican Beef Import and Export Dynamics YTD

From January to September 2024, beef imports in Mexico reached a total of 190,097 tons, reflecting a significant increase compared to the previous year. The United States remains the main supplier, with 112,974 tons accounting for 68.9% of total imports, an 8.1% increase compared to the same period last year. This growth highlights the ongoing importance of the U.S. market as a key source of supply for Mexico, especially during times of economic fluctuations that have affected trade decisions.

In addition to imports from the United States, South America has... 

ANALYSIS: UB Choice Beef Cutout Outperforming Year Ago Levels

The Urner Barry Choice Cutout has been relatively tame this year when compared to last year’s moves. The peaks and troughs have been fairly muted as prices remain sticky and at elevated levels from a historical perspective. This has largely been driven by the lower middle meat prices as buyers opted for more cost-conscious beef items. For example, when looking at export ribs or tenderloins through the summer months – they predominantly tracked below year-ago levels and by quite a good margin...

ANALYSIS: Korea's Beef Imports Rise 4.8% Y-o-Y in September, Australia Surpasses US as Top Supplier

Korea’s beef imports rose to 38,580 metric tonnes (mt) in September 2024, reversing last month’s losses, according to the latest figures from the Korea Customs Service.

Volumes rose by 1.2% (+452 mt) from the previous month, bolstered by increased imports from Australia, New Zealand, and Canada. However, declines in quantities from the United States, driven by a reduction in herd size, limited overall growth.

Annually, total imports increased by 4.8% (+1,768 mt), representing the strongest growth since the beginning... 

The Retail Rundown: Tuning in to Turkey

Retail promotions for seafood continue to dominate the protein category this week, capturing nearly a third of ad circular space (32 percent). Beef and pork follow, taking up 23 percent and 21.3 percent, respectively. Chicken is up slightly from the previous week at 16 percent. Egg ads held steady at about 3 percent.

Several items were featured at lower prices compared to 2023 last week, with chicken leg quarters averaging $1.55 per pound, 5 cents cheaper than last year. Fresh pork loin prices were down by 2 percent...

ANALYSIS: China’s Beef Imports Sink 5.7% M-o-M in September; Tonnage Lowest Since 2020

China’s September 2024 beef imports slumped 5.7% month-on-month (m-o-m) to 218,199 metric tonnes (mt), according to the General Administration of Customs People's Republic of China.

Although August 2024 saw a mild recovery, volumes in September 2024 dropped by 13,136 mt, with declines recorded across all major suppliers except Australia and Bolivia. September 2024’s in-month tonnage was also the lowest since 2020, underscoring the ongoing challenges faced by the world’s largest beef importer.

Annual figures painted...

ANALYSIS: Breaking out the Chicken Production Roadmap

From a seasonal shift in buyer outreach, to heavy live weights, and even hurricanes, there is no shortage of variables which are keeping chicken market participants on their toes here in mid-October.

Given the volatile and somewhat unpredictable nature of the market lately, players are finding that historic seasonality isn’t always the best indicator of the road that lies ahead. This scenario has prompted some participants to break out the production “roadmap” in an attempt to hone their expectations for the future. Perhaps one of the best indicators at...

ANALYSIS: Turkeys Stuck at Home, Exports Drop in August

On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, total turkey export volumes were down -10% in August, while total export values were up 4%. These numbers could suggest a combination of a few factors. First, export buyers may have been buying less overall production, but the production they were purchasing may have been of a higher value than the previous year.Second, in the case of Mexico, an average YoY increase in the strength of the Mexican peso to the U.S. dollar may have supported Mexican buyers. Last, but certainly not less...

The Retail Rundown: Eggs Rule the Roost During Baking Season 

As October reaches its midpoint, many homes are filled with the irresistible aromas of freshly baked goods, marking the onset of the holiday baking season.

This seasonal shift benefits the egg case as eggs find their way into breads, cookies, pastries, pies, and more. Also, more consumers are reaching for hot breakfasts as the weather turns colder, which further boosts egg demand.

Data from Circana shows that the average retail feature price for large, white Grade A eggs averaged $3.72 per dozen last week...

ANALYSIS: China’s Sept 2024 Meat Imports Slump 4.3% M-o-M; Ends Two-Month Growth Streak

China’s total meat imports, including variety meats fell in September 2024, amounting to 540,543 metric tonnes (mt), according to the latest preliminary figures from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China. 

On a monthly basis, imports slipped 4.3% (-24,559 mt), partially affected by the shorter working month due to the observance of the Mid-Autumn festivities. 

Annually, imports plummeted by 9.2% (-54,457 mt) in September, marking the eighth consecutive month since the start of the year...

ANALYSIS: The U.S 2024 Ups and Downs of Inside Rounds

As cooler temperatures bring in roasting season, let's take a look at a favorite, inside rounds. This item has seen a year of heightened volatility, which started back in Q1. They have broken all-time record highs for March at $3.76/lb; this is 35% above year-ago levels and roughly 40% over the 5-year average for this time.  If we look back to the middle of June, inside rounds saw a sharp price increase. This item rose 15% in about a month...

ANALYSIS: Chicken Export Volumes in August

Total chicken exports were up 3.5% from July to August, compared to a 5-year average month-over-month (MoM) change of 4.6%. Of the twenty countries listed in the USDA’s monthly import/export report, thirteen of them had increased MoM export volumes in August, but only seven of them were up year-over-year (YoY). This aligns with the year-long trend of lower export volumes in which the current year-to-date (YTD) value of 4.4 billion lbs. is -8.6% lower YoY and is...

ANALYSIS: US Pork Exports Rise 6.2% Year-Over-Year in August, Led by Central & South American Gains

On Wednesday, the USDA released their August import/export trade data. The latest report reveals mixed results for U.S. pork exports in August. While overall exports saw a slight decline of 1.1% compared to July, they continued to increase by 6.2% year-over-year.

Notable success was achieved in Central America, where exports surged by 5.9% from the previous month and a remarkable 31.3% from last year, driven by strong demand in Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Panama, Honduras, and Guatemala...

ANALYSIS: Upward-Trending Turkey Drum Quotations

Quotations for domestic East coast frozen tom drums were established in January of 1989. Since then, there have only been four years in which the quotations have not retreated from the first of the year to the current date. These years were 2011, 2013, 2018, and 2024.

None of these years have boasted a record-high seasonal quotation at any point of the year, and they don't have the most dramatic increases from the first of the year to the current week. In fact, only...

ANALYSIS: U.S. Dressed Steer Weights Continue in Record High Fashion

As of September 16^th, dressed steer weights continue to push all-time high levels for the past two consecutive weeks currently at 948 lbs. Year-over year there has been a percent change of 3.27%. Since July, dressed steer weights have increased by 3.6%. The previous record was set less than a year ago, at the end of 2023, when dressed steers averaged 942 lbs. in December. Over the past three years, weights have consistently exceeded the ten-year average across all months. The current period... 

ANALYSIS: EU Egg Imports and Exports Show Growth in the First Half of 2024

The EU continues to be a net exporter of eggs and egg products, even as imports have risen significantly in recent years. H1 2024 figures indicated that the EU egg imports reached 57,078 tonnes, edging up by 21.81% from January to June 2023. The rise in imports was mostly driven by a strong domestic demand. As consumers grapple with high living expenses, many are trading down to more affordable protein options, making eggs a particularly appealing choice. Despite this import growth...

ANALYSIS: Brazilian Beef Exports Hit a New Record High in September, 8.4% MoM and 17.4% YoY.

The Brazilian fresh beef (frozen and chilled) exports totaled 251,749 MT in September, according to the latest data released by the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat. This sets a new record, surpassing the previous high from just two months ago, when Brazil shipped 237,268 MT of fresh beef overseas. September volume accounts for a monthly 8.4% increase and is 17.4% higher compared to the same period last year. On a year-to-date basis, Brazil has exported 1,845,638 MT of fresh beef...

ANALYSIS: China Activates Australian Beef’s Safeguard Mechanism in Surprise Move

China has announced that Australian beef will now be subjected to a 12.0% Most-Favoured Nation (MFN) tariff, as the Special Agricultural Safeguard (SSG) of 178,418 metric tonnes (mt) has been triggered, according to a statement from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China.

In a surprising move, the official announcement came on Sunday, October 6th, during China's seven-day "Golden Week" holiday, which began on October 1st. This period, marking the 75th anniversary of the People's Republic, is one of the country's longest public holidays...