ANALYSIS: China’s Beef Imports Sink 5.7% M-o-M in September; Tonnage Lowest Since 2020

China’s September 2024 beef imports slumped 5.7% month-on-month (m-o-m) to 218,199 metric tonnes (mt), according to the General Administration of Customs People's Republic of China.

Although August 2024 saw a mild recovery, volumes in September 2024 dropped by 13,136 mt, with declines recorded across all major suppliers except Australia and Bolivia. September 2024’s in-month tonnage was also the lowest since 2020, underscoring the ongoing challenges faced by the world’s largest beef importer.

Annual figures painted...

ANALYSIS: Breaking out the Chicken Production Roadmap

From a seasonal shift in buyer outreach, to heavy live weights, and even hurricanes, there is no shortage of variables which are keeping chicken market participants on their toes here in mid-October.

Given the volatile and somewhat unpredictable nature of the market lately, players are finding that historic seasonality isn’t always the best indicator of the road that lies ahead. This scenario has prompted some participants to break out the production “roadmap” in an attempt to hone their expectations for the future. Perhaps one of the best indicators at...

ANALYSIS: Turkeys Stuck at Home, Exports Drop in August

On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, total turkey export volumes were down -10% in August, while total export values were up 4%. These numbers could suggest a combination of a few factors. First, export buyers may have been buying less overall production, but the production they were purchasing may have been of a higher value than the previous year.Second, in the case of Mexico, an average YoY increase in the strength of the Mexican peso to the U.S. dollar may have supported Mexican buyers. Last, but certainly not less...

The Retail Rundown: Eggs Rule the Roost During Baking Season 

As October reaches its midpoint, many homes are filled with the irresistible aromas of freshly baked goods, marking the onset of the holiday baking season.

This seasonal shift benefits the egg case as eggs find their way into breads, cookies, pastries, pies, and more. Also, more consumers are reaching for hot breakfasts as the weather turns colder, which further boosts egg demand.

Data from Circana shows that the average retail feature price for large, white Grade A eggs averaged $3.72 per dozen last week...

ANALYSIS: China’s Sept 2024 Meat Imports Slump 4.3% M-o-M; Ends Two-Month Growth Streak

China’s total meat imports, including variety meats fell in September 2024, amounting to 540,543 metric tonnes (mt), according to the latest preliminary figures from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China. 

On a monthly basis, imports slipped 4.3% (-24,559 mt), partially affected by the shorter working month due to the observance of the Mid-Autumn festivities. 

Annually, imports plummeted by 9.2% (-54,457 mt) in September, marking the eighth consecutive month since the start of the year...

ANALYSIS: The U.S 2024 Ups and Downs of Inside Rounds

As cooler temperatures bring in roasting season, let's take a look at a favorite, inside rounds. This item has seen a year of heightened volatility, which started back in Q1. They have broken all-time record highs for March at $3.76/lb; this is 35% above year-ago levels and roughly 40% over the 5-year average for this time.  If we look back to the middle of June, inside rounds saw a sharp price increase. This item rose 15% in about a month...

ANALYSIS: Chicken Export Volumes in August

Total chicken exports were up 3.5% from July to August, compared to a 5-year average month-over-month (MoM) change of 4.6%. Of the twenty countries listed in the USDA’s monthly import/export report, thirteen of them had increased MoM export volumes in August, but only seven of them were up year-over-year (YoY). This aligns with the year-long trend of lower export volumes in which the current year-to-date (YTD) value of 4.4 billion lbs. is -8.6% lower YoY and is...

ANALYSIS: US Pork Exports Rise 6.2% Year-Over-Year in August, Led by Central & South American Gains

On Wednesday, the USDA released their August import/export trade data. The latest report reveals mixed results for U.S. pork exports in August. While overall exports saw a slight decline of 1.1% compared to July, they continued to increase by 6.2% year-over-year.

Notable success was achieved in Central America, where exports surged by 5.9% from the previous month and a remarkable 31.3% from last year, driven by strong demand in Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Panama, Honduras, and Guatemala...

ANALYSIS: Upward-Trending Turkey Drum Quotations

Quotations for domestic East coast frozen tom drums were established in January of 1989. Since then, there have only been four years in which the quotations have not retreated from the first of the year to the current date. These years were 2011, 2013, 2018, and 2024.

None of these years have boasted a record-high seasonal quotation at any point of the year, and they don't have the most dramatic increases from the first of the year to the current week. In fact, only...

ANALYSIS: U.S. Dressed Steer Weights Continue in Record High Fashion

As of September 16^th, dressed steer weights continue to push all-time high levels for the past two consecutive weeks currently at 948 lbs. Year-over year there has been a percent change of 3.27%. Since July, dressed steer weights have increased by 3.6%. The previous record was set less than a year ago, at the end of 2023, when dressed steers averaged 942 lbs. in December. Over the past three years, weights have consistently exceeded the ten-year average across all months. The current period... 

ANALYSIS: EU Egg Imports and Exports Show Growth in the First Half of 2024

The EU continues to be a net exporter of eggs and egg products, even as imports have risen significantly in recent years. H1 2024 figures indicated that the EU egg imports reached 57,078 tonnes, edging up by 21.81% from January to June 2023. The rise in imports was mostly driven by a strong domestic demand. As consumers grapple with high living expenses, many are trading down to more affordable protein options, making eggs a particularly appealing choice. Despite this import growth...

ANALYSIS: Brazilian Beef Exports Hit a New Record High in September, 8.4% MoM and 17.4% YoY.

The Brazilian fresh beef (frozen and chilled) exports totaled 251,749 MT in September, according to the latest data released by the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat. This sets a new record, surpassing the previous high from just two months ago, when Brazil shipped 237,268 MT of fresh beef overseas. September volume accounts for a monthly 8.4% increase and is 17.4% higher compared to the same period last year. On a year-to-date basis, Brazil has exported 1,845,638 MT of fresh beef...

ANALYSIS: U.S. Dressed Steer Weights Continue in Record High Fashion

As of September 16^th, dressed steer weights continue to push all-time high levels for the past two consecutive weeks currently at 948 lbs. Year-over year there has been a percent change of 3.27%. Since July, dressed steer weights have increased by 3.6%. The previous record was set less than a year ago, at the end of 2023, when dressed steers averaged 942 lbs. in December. Over the past three years, weights have consistently exceeded the ten-year average across all months... 

ANALYSIS: China Activates Australian Beef’s Safeguard Mechanism in Surprise Move

China has announced that Australian beef will now be subjected to a 12.0% Most-Favoured Nation (MFN) tariff, as the Special Agricultural Safeguard (SSG) of 178,418 metric tonnes (mt) has been triggered, according to a statement from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China.

In a surprising move, the official announcement came on Sunday, October 6th, during China's seven-day "Golden Week" holiday, which began on October 1st. This period, marking the 75th anniversary of the People's Republic, is one of the country's longest public holidays...

ANALYSIS: Australia's Sept 2024 Beef Exports Slide 6.4% MoM; China-bound Shipments Climb

Australia beef and veal exports in September 2024 eased further to 114,046 metric tonnes (mt), the latest data from the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry (DAFF) indicated.

Hitting the 2nd highest in-month figure since our records began in 2010, September’s exports surpassed the drought year’s highs back in 2019, but narrowly missing 2015’s record highs of 118,432 mt by 4,386 mt.

Month-on-month (m-o-m), volumes slipped another 6.4% (-7,751 mt) following July 2024’s all-time highs that was recorded at...

ANALYSIS: EU Shell Eggs Firming up as Consumption Progresses

The EU is experiencing a firm shell egg market, as it is common to see at this period of the year. However, market players on the supply side report that the overall egg production in the region is not following the strong progression of the demand from consumers and from processors.

According to Eurostats, graded shell eggs in the EU increased value by 6.9% between week 34 at 1,936€/MT (in the middle of August) and week 39 at 2,069€/MT (at the end of September)...

ANALYSIS: Unusual Trend Ignites Price Surge in Chuck Rolls

In January, Chuck Rolls entered the year at $3.85/lb, gaining in price to $4.57/lb by the end of the month, or roughly a 19% change. The price jump can be attributed to winter weather events that caused plant closures and disrupted the supply chain. A bottom of $3.50/lb was seen in the beginning of May as production normalized back in April, putting Chuck Rolls back on track with historical trends. In late August, prices started to increase, whereas in the past, prices...

ANALYSIS: Uruguay Beef Exports Shed 16.9% in September, Still Up by 4.0% YTD

According to the latest data released by the Uruguayan National Customs Directorate, Uruguay’s fresh beef export has reached 25,625 MT in September 2024, marking a 16.9% decline compared to the previous month, and 13.7% drop YoY. On a YTD basis, beef exports totaled 263,910 MT, which is 4% higher than last year’s 253,847 MT.

China continued to be the primary destination for beef exports in September, accounting for 10,076 MT, or 39.3% of the total. This figure represents a reduction of nearly 20% compared...

ANALYSIS: Chicken Cold Storage Holdings in August

Despite a slight retreat in demand for several domestic lines during August, frozen inventory remained well below last year’s level, fueled in part by an active call from the export arena. Now, in October, these factors are starting to resurface and play a major role in current market dynamics. Total chicken in frozen inventory was down -9.0% year-over-year (YoY), which positions August’s inventory at the third lowest seasonal level over the past ten years. All individual categories, with the exceptions of drums and paws, were also down on a YoY basis...

ANALYSIS: U.S. Beef Cold Storage Hits a 52-Week Low

According to the latest USDA beef cold storage report, the total volume of beef in cold storage has experienced a significant decline in August, with an almost 2% drop month-over-month. This decline has brought the current storage volume to its lowest level in three years. Notably, boneless beef has seen a decrease of 1.13%, while beef cuts have experienced a more pronounced reduction of 7.48%. This considerable decline in beef cuts suggests that the overall change in total beef inventory is closely aligned with the trends...

ANALYSIS: U.S. Egg Prices Stabilize After Sharp Decline, Amid Strong Canadian Demand, Retail Uptick

Friday marked the end of a four-week decline in U.S. shell egg prices, during which Midwest Large fell by a staggering 51.1%, settling at $2.12 per dozen. This drop came amid weak retail demand and increasing production levels. Throughout the summer, many of the nation’s largest retailers had employed eggs as a loss leader, boosting unseasonably strong demand as inflation-conscious consumers sought affordable, high-protein food options.

Summer is typically a period of reduced production, as egg producers cycle...

The Retail Rundown:  Port Strike Sends Shockwaves Throughout Supply Chain 

The strike at East and Gulf Coast ports officially began once the calendar turned to October, following unsuccessful contract negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX).

The strike's impact is being felt throughout the supply chain, causing significant disruptions in the flow of goods ahead of the rapidly approaching holiday season. 

In a statement released on Tuesday, USMX stated that its current offer includes a nearly 50% wage increase. In response, ILA said it has rejected USX's offer "because it fails to address...

ANALYSIS: Japan's Aug 2024 Beef Imports Dips 0.9% M-o-M; Australia and New Zealand Lead Yearly Gains

Japan’s August 2024 beef imports slipped by just 0.9% month-on-month (m-o-m) to 48,884 metric tonnes (mt), according to the latest data from Trade Statistics of Japan.

Marking the fourth consecutive month below the 50,000 mt threshold, the pace of import growth was eroded by Japan’s blistering summer conditions and a weak yen, which has contributed to a slowdown in the dining-out sector.

Compared to the same period last year, imports grew a healthy 7.0%...

ANALYSIS: Korea Poised for Early Activation of Safeguard Mechanism on Australian Beef Amid US Supply

Australian beef imports into Korea could face a tariff rate increase of 24.0% as the Special Agricultural Safeguard (SSG) mechanism is expected to activate earlier than in previous years. Korea's increasing reliance on Australian beef amid dwindling US supply has long suggested an earlier activation of the safeguard tariffs. 

Under the Korea-Australia Free Trade Agreement (KAFTA), the safeguard volume for this year is set at 188,437 metric tonnes (mt). Any imports exceeding this safeguard volume limit in 2024 will incur a tariff rate of 24.0%...

ANALYSIS: Mexico’s Livestock Trade Deficit Persists Amid Volatile USD:MXD

The Grupo Consultor de Mercados Agrícolas (GCMA) reported that Mexico's livestock trade balance remains in deficit, driven by increasing domestic prices that spurred record beef and pork imports. Between January and July 2024, meat imports totaled 1.67 million tonnes, a 6.3% increase from the same period in 2023.

Homero García de la Llata, president of Mexicos National Confederation of Livestock Organizations (CNOG), pointed out that several problems and weaknesses are affecting livestock farming in Mexico. These include low productivity, limited financing, and a lack of innovation and technology....

ANALYSIS: Imported Cattle Shake Up US Beef Market

The U.S. boxed beef market has had its fair share of trials and tribulations this year and they only seem to be growing as unfamiliar trends continue to emerge. One of those trends that has largely been absent through the last couple years during the contraction in the U.S. cattle herd, is imported cattle from Mexico and Canada. Fast forward to the present day, this trend is alive and well and has been causing some uncertainty in the market as both sides of the aisle try to gauge the...

ANALYSIS: Production Shortfall Drives New Zealand's Aug 2024 Beef Exports to 10-Month Lows

New Zealand’s August 2024 beef exports totalled 31,741 metric tonnes (mt), hitting the lowest levels since October 2023, according to the latest data from Stats NZ. The volume fell by 18.2% (-7,072 mt) compared to the previous month.

Marking a 10-month low, and falling for the third consecutive month, this decline was primarily driven by New Zealand's two key markets, the United States (US) and China, with smaller drops also seen in markets like Canada, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. In-month volumes was also...

ANALYSIS: Whole Turkey Quotations From the Start of Q4 to Thanksgiving

Five-year average trends show that quotations for fresh and frozen whole-body turkeys have historically increased by minute amounts between the outset of October through Thanksgiving, regardless of sizing. By the time that the fourth quarter arrives, most whole turkeys for the holidays are already spoken. Still, there are usually buyers who opt to stock up during the weeks immediately preceding Thanksgiving. This is especially true of fresh offerings as evident by the 5-year average quotation change of 0.36% and 0.96% for fresh hens... 

The Retail Rundown: Onwards to October

With October nearing, the shift in retail meat features from grilling cuts to roasts is picking up pace. More households are utilizing their ovens and crockpots, making it prime time for hearty ingredients like chuck roasts and pork shoulders.

Still, warmer weather lingers in some regions. For those with favorable grilling conditions, shoppers may find deals on items like steaks, ribs, and pork chops as retailers work to move any extra inventory. 

This week’s retail buying opportunities show seafood continuing to lead, making up 26.9% of protein advertisements, followed by pork at 24.7%, beef at 21.2%...

ANALYSIS: Mexican Beef Imports and Exports Overview

During 2024, the Mexican beef market experienced its lowest levels of exports to the United States in the past three years. This was a consequence of the strengthening of the Mexican peso against the U.S. dollar, which began at the end of 2022 and continued to strengthen throughout 2023 and the first two quarters of 2024. This led to a widespread pattern where bids from U.S. buyers were simply unattractive to Mexican sellers, who preferred to place their product in the domestic market, which offered higher figures...

ANALYSIS: China on the Brink of Imposing 12.0% Tariff on Australian Beef Amid Rising Imports

China is on the verge of triggering the Special Agricultural Safeguard (SSG) mechanism for Australian beef imports, with only 21,968 metric tonnes (mt) remaining before a 12.0% Most-Favoured Nation (MFN) tariff is enforced.

By the end of August 2024, imports had reached 156,450 mt, nearing the 178,418 mt threshold. Most market players now anticipate that the safeguard volume mechanism will be triggered by early October, though delays in port clearance due to Typhoon Bebinca may push this to mid-October...

ANALYSIS: Korea's August 2024 Beef Imports Defy Decade-Long Trend, Falls 1.2% M-o-M

Korea's August 2024 beef imports hit 38,128 metric tonnes (mt), slipping 1.2% (-448 mt) month-on-month (m-o-m), according to the latest figures from the Korea Customs Service.

While the monthly decrease was modest, it marked the first decline since 2014. Historically, August imports tend to rise from July in anticipation of the major holiday, Chuseok. 

This drop was primarily driven by reduced supply from the United States, impacted by a herd size crunch, although it was partially offset by higher...

ANALYSIS: Chicken Production Outlook for Q4

The USDA is forecasting a year-over-year (YoY) decrease in beef and turkey production for Q4 of this year and a YoY increase in production of pork and chicken. Ready-to-cook (RTC) broiler production is expected to increase by 3.57% YoY. Beginning ten weeks prior to the outset of Q4 to the most current data, egg sets have been up by 2.62% to 5.04%. Increases in broiler chick placements from the middle of August, seven weeks prior to the start of Q4, are slightly less dramatic with values ranging

ANALYSIS: Egg White Powder Exports to Japan See Declining Revenues Despite Stable Volumes

Since 2023, the volume of dried egg white exported to Japan by the EU has plateaued at levels 26% lower than two years ago in 2021. The average of quarterly volumes exported in 2021 is 2105 MT, vs 1464 MT in 2023, and 1593 MT in 2024 (first and second quarters). Exports are now more stable and even slightly higher in 2024, compared with last year. However, in terms of revenue, values have been declining rather steeply since Q1 2023...

ANALYSIS: China’s Aug 2024 Beef Imports Up 7.4% MoM Before Holidays; Economic Woes Sink YoY Growth

China’s August 2024 beef imports rose 7.4% month-on-month (m-o-m) to 231,335 metric tonnes (mt), according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs People's Republic of China.

Monthly increases were recorded at 16,013 mt, representing the second consecutive rise since June's 13-month low, fuelled by increased shipments from Brazil, its top supplier.

The higher import figures were in line with market expectations ahead of the winter season. Historically, demand for red...

ANALYSIS: Pork Cutout Continues its Gradual Decline

The pork cutout value has been steadily decreasing since the end of July, closing at $93.24/cwt on September 13th. This decline, while aligning with historical seasonal trends, represents a 12.1% decrease since July 29th and a slight dip below last year’s value. The decrease in value can be attributed to a combination of factors, including increased production levels, which are currently 2.4% higher than this time last year.

The week of September 16th saw a continuation of this downward trend, with the total cutout value falling 4.2% below...

ANALYSIS: Pork Exports Surged to 10-Year Highs in July

The USDA's latest pork import/export report reveals a robust trend in U.S. pork exports, reaching a decade-high volume of 566,659 thousand pounds in July 2024. This marks an 8.1% increase from the previous month and a significant 12.3% year-over-year growth.

Mexico, a key trade partner, saw a substantial increase in U.S. pork imports, with a 25.6% month-over-month and 25.9% year-over-year surge, potentially driven by HPAI restrictions impacting US poultry exports, which has since begun to ease... 

The Retail Rundown: Going All-Out for Autumn

Fall is just around the corner, with the official start of autumn this Sunday, September 22. As cooler weather sets in and travel plans wind down, grocers are ramping up their offerings of seasonal favorites to align with the change in consumer preferences. 

According to the Expana Retail Activity Index, seafood continues to lead for the fourth week in a row, making up 30% of total protein ads. Beef and pork are close behind, each at around 25%, while chicken accounts for 14%. Eggs represent 2.8% of retail opportunities, and turkey has 2.3%...

ANALYSIS: The State of 81% Coarse Grinds Amid Summer's End

With summer coming to a close, let’s take a look at one of our summer favorites, coarse 81% grinds. This past year 81% coarse grinds have seen very stout levels of demand as consumers largely opted for cost-conscious beef options. This has given the item an uplift of nearly 36% year-to-date to $3.18/lb. This is approximately 16% higher than last year and 29% above the 3-year average during the same period. In 2023, we saw typical post Labor Day...

ANALYSIS: A Deep Dive into Chicken Export Volume for July

July chicken export volumes were down -2.0% from June, which is a period in which the 5-year average change is an increase of 1.1%. Despite this, the amount of chicken moved to Mexico, the Philippines,and Taiwan, the first, second, and fourth top importers of U.S. chicken respectively, were up by 15.6%, 47.3%, and 28.4%. Conversely, the volumes sold to the third and fifth top importers of U.S. chicken, Cuba and Canada, were down by -7.5% and -16.0%, respectively.

The 5-year average month-over-month (MoM)...

ANALYSIS: China’s Aug 2024 Meat Imports Rise 4.7% Ahead of Winter; YTD Figures Up 2.7%

China's meat imports, including variety meats, increased for the second consecutive month in August 2024 to reach 565,102 metric tonnes (mt), according to the latest preliminary data from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China.

This 4.7% monthly growth (+25,189 mt) followed July 2024’s recovery from three consecutive months of declines during the second quarter of 2024. 

As China emerges from a scorching summer, importers have been actively replenishing stocks in preparation for the winter season. Meat consumption typically...

ANALYSIS: A Deep Dive into Chicken Export Volume in July

July chicken export volumes were down -2.0% from June, which is a period in which the 5-year average change is an increase of 1.1%...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Exports Close Month On High Note

For those involved in the export sector of the turkey industry, 2024 has been anything but smooth sailing. Geopolitical tensions, fluctuating exchange rates, and variable international demand patterns have all contributed to a challenging landscape for players to navigate. Despite these difficulties, July's export figures showed some positive signs for marketers...

The Retail Rundown: Rising Feature Volume for Roasts

This month marks an ideal blend of seasons for the retail sector, as grilling cuts continue to be featured along with autumn favorites like hearty roasts and everything pumpkin. The shift to cooler weather is already being reflected in increased promotions for pork and beef roasts, which have earned a larger share of circular ad space this week. 

In the beef category, roasts now account for 26.4 percent of total ad space, up from 17 percent the previous week. Steak promotions eased to 36.9 percent, a nearly 10-point decline from...

ANALYSIS: August Trends in the By-Products Market

During August, the by-products market exhibited a predominantly steady trend, with limited activity across most sectors. Participants maintained a "wait-and-see" attitude due to the lack of in-spec material and limited offers. Tallow and grease prices ranged from steady to slightly weaker throughout the month, with minor downward adjustments largely influenced by fluctuations in soybean oil prices. This behavior in the tallow market was not surprising, as the quality issues, particularly concerning free fatty acid (FFA) levels, are typical of seasonal patterns observed during previous summers. Renderer tallow saw...

ANALYSIS: Wholesale U.S. Shrimp Prices Converging with Typically Lower Egg Prices

There is usually a common perception from consumers that seafood and shrimp are luxury items while eggs have appealed to price sensitive consumers. But the chart might tell a different story right now. From 2019 to 2020, the Expana Benchmark Price Large Shell Egg, Midwest averaged 19% of the price of the 16-20 count Peeled and Deveined, Tail-On White Shrimp, Asia origin...

ANALYSIS: Chicken Cold Storage Trends in July

The total amount of chicken in cold storage in July was down -10.5% year-over-year (YoY), while month-over-month (MoM) it was up 1.5% compared to the 5-year average change of 1.0%...

ANALYSIS: Pork Production Reaches 3-Year High in August

Federally inspected pork production has maintained the highest levels in the last 3 years going into the final week of August. According to the USDA Federally Inspected Pork Production Weekly Report, published on August 31^st, production volumes reached 509.7 million pounds. This represented a 3.8% increase from the same period last year and 2.9% above the three-year average. This summer's peak production number occurred in mid-August, reaching 527.1 million pounds, a significant 4.4% increase above the three-year average...

U.S. Egg Market Retreats from Seasonal Highs as Rising Shelf Prices Stifle Demand

A sharp rise in retail shelf prices across the U.S. has stifled consumer demand for eggs, bringing an end to a six-week rally that had pushed wholesale values to record highs for this time of year...

ANALYSIS: Production Indications Suggest Turkey Supply Pinch

An earlier analysis piece we published described the year-over-year (YoY) change in turkey hatchery figures and quotations for frozen 16 lbs. toms...

ANALYSIS: Australia's Aug 2024 Beef Exports Dip from Record Highs; US-Bound Volumes at 9-Year High

Australia's August 2024 beef and veal exports scaled back from record highs to 121,797 metric tonnes (mt), the latest data from the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry (DAFF) revealed.

Volumes shed 6.3% (-8,201 mt) from July’s all time high of 129,998 mt. This decline was primarily driven by reduced exports to major clients such as Japan, China, and Korea, despite continued strength in exports to the tight United States (US) market.

Annually, exports surged by 19.0% (+19,446 mt), driven by increased... 

ANALYSIS: The Seasonal Rebound of EU Shell Egg Markets

Retail buying activity continues to rebound as the post-summer season unfolds, aligning with typical seasonal patterns observed at this time of year. Shell eggs have become less available for breaking plants as some producers are gearing their production efforts towards increased supermarkets demand. This has resulted in bullish sentiments for raw material, and sellers are confidently maintaining higher asking prices. This upward pressure on prices is evident in market assessments for both cage and barn shell eggs, which have risen for two consecutive...

The Retail Rundown: September's Seasonal Shifts

Although there are about two weeks left to enjoy summer, many consider the season unofficially over following Labor Day. The retail landscape is starting to reflect this shift, where factors like cooler weather and football season are already influencing consumer demand. 

The frozen/convenience aisles and deli counters benefit from back-to-school needs and provide quick meals for busy households. Circana data indicates that prepared dishes/kits earned $18.1 million in total sales last week, up from $17.7 million the week prior. Over in lunchmeat, fresh packaged turkey retailed at $7.21 discounted, an 18-cent year-over-year decrease.  

ANALYSIS: Japan's July 2024 Beef Imports Surge 27.5% Y-o-Y; Tourism Spike Supports Growth

Japan’s beef imports in July 2024 reached the second highest monthly total of the year, rising 3.8% month-on-month (m-o-m) by 1,789 metric tonnes (mt) to 49,347 mt, according to the latest data from Trade Statistics of Japan.

Earlier in February, volumes hit a five-year low at 31,012 mt, but still fell in line with typical import patterns.

On a yearly basis, imports grew a staggering 27.5% (+10,649 mt), led strongly by higher Australian volumes. In 2023...

ANALYSIS: Chicken Cold Storage Chills Out in July: Stocks Dip from Last Year

Despite July’s modest 1.5% uptick in cold storage holdings when compared with June, at 757.1 million pounds, chicken inventory levels still managed to close the month at the third-lowest seasonal level realized in at least a decade.

When compared with 2023, total warehouse stocks retreated by a significant 10.5%, or 88.5 million pounds. This ongoing slump in frozen holdings aligns closely with this year’s generally consistent level of buying engagement, especially for key lines such as boneless breasts, along with a cumulative downturn in overall...

ANALYSIS: July's Pork Cold Storage Figures Released

The latest installment of the July USDA Pork Cold storage report, released on August 23^rd, shows total frozen stock values continue to trend lower by 4.5% compared to this same time last year and 19.4% below the 10-year average. Effects of increased demand during the third and fourth quarters of 2023 from regions impacted by Prop 12 implementation in July to January of last year, continue to impact volumes for frozen stocks despite elevated slaughter levels throughout the summer. 

Cuts such as trimmings, bellies, butts and ribs were among the items...

ANALYSIS: Ice-Pick: July Turkey Cold Storage

Total turkey cold storage holdings through the end of July were up 4.7% year-over-year (YoY), and 3.3% month-over-month (MoM). A cursory glance at these figures might lead one to surmise that demand for turkey is becoming less and less active. However, these values don't necessarily tell the complete story. Sure, total frozen inventory of turkey is up when compared to the previous year, but it is the fourth lowest value since 1995, and follows 2021, 2022, and 2023, which brought with them three of the... 

ANALYSIS: Korea’s July 2024 Beef Imports Up 12.1% M-o-M: Yearly Growth Lags

Korea's beef imports reached 38,576 mt in July 2024, showing a 12.1% increase (4,154 mt) compared to the same month last year, according to the latest figures from the Korea Customs Service.

This monthly increase was driven primarily by higher imports from Australia and the United States (US) and Canada, while declines were noted from New Zealand.

On a yearly basis, imports dipped 5.0% or 2,027 mt. Korea's struggling economy has led to a decline in beef consumption, with consumers favouring more affordable options like...

ANALYSIS: Labor Day Looms, Will Coarse Grinds Maintain Their Momentum?

With Labor Day in view, we figured it would be an appropriate time to highlight some of the movement seen within coarse grinds. Coarse grinds, 81% more so, have been a true outperformer this year as consumers continued to opt for more cost-conscious beef options. When looking at the chart above you can see UB’s Coarse 81% grind price is up nearly 38% on the year at $3.35/lb. and nearly 41% over the 5-year average during the same period...

ANALYSIS: New Zealand's July 2024 Beef Exports Record 19.6% M-O-M Decline; Exports to China Nosedive

New Zealand’s beef exports in July 2024 amounted to 40,046 metric tonnes (mt), falling 19.6% or 9,734 mt compared to the same period last month, data from Stats NZ indicated.

Notable decreases were seen in exports to the United States (US) and China, in line with seasonal production patterns and lower cattle numbers. Year-on-year (y-o-y), exports fell 13.8% or 6,427 mt. Higher exports to the key Japanese, Canadian and Korean markets helped to mitigate further falls... 

ANALYSIS: Rising Hog Slaughter and Market Supply

As of yesterday's close, the year-to-date total hog slaughter reached 82,805,400 head, marking a 1.2% increase compared to this same period last year, which stood at 81,790,000 head, according to the USDA’s Federally Inspected Hog Slaughter figures.

The data indicates that 2024 has seen higher weekly hog slaughter numbers, particularly at the beginning of the year due to winter weather disruptions that backlogged hogs, and from June to August, surpassing levels from the past two years as well as the three-year average...

ANALYSIS: From Cutter Cow to Beef Fresh 90s Price Differences

While price is typically a function of quantity demanded or quantity supplied, there are many factors that contribute to the numeric value one pays; input costs, consumer perception, and price of substitute goods are just a few examples of price factors. In this scenario, we will analyze the difference between an input, or the cutter cow, and the beef fresh 90’s price from packer to first receiver.

Currently, live cutter cows weighing over 500 pounds are selling at an...

ANALYSIS: EU Chicken Prices Continue to Rise in August 2024

Despite steady chicken supplies, European chicken prices have been on an upward trend, mainly driven by high prices in the Polish market.

The Expana price for Polish chicken (9A05) reached EUR 3.85/kg in the second week of August 2024, up 2.1% year-on-year and 7.1% month-on-month. Prices continue to climb as demand grows, with chicken being frozen ahead of Christmas. Additionally, recent public holidays and summer vacations in some EU countries have further supported the price increases...

ANALYSIS: China's July 2024 Beef Imports Rebound; Ebbing Economy Slashes Yearly Growth by 27%

China’s July beef imports rebounded 3.2% month-on-month (m-o-m) from June’s 13-month low at 215,322 metric tonnes (mt), according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs People's Republic of China.  

This growth was led largely by higher imports from its key suppliers such as Brazil, Australia, the United States (US) and Uruguay. Earlier in June 2024, volumes plunged to a 13-month low, falling to 208,718 mt. 

The higher July beef import figures were in line with the... 

The Retail Rundown: Leaping Towards Labor Day

Labor Day weekend, often viewed as the unofficial end of summer, is just two weeks out. Many families are seizing the opportunity for one last vacation, boosting foodservice spending.

For some students, summer break has already concluded, and back-to-school shopping for essentials like breakfast and lunch items is in full swing. Among retailers, Labor Day is recognized as the final major grilling event of the year, marking the last big push to promote barbecue favorites.

Last week, boneless skinless chicken breasts were featured at $4.43 discounted, 18 cents above...

ANALYSIS: Thumbing Through the Whole-Body Turkey History Book

From the end of October 2011 until last week, Expana’s 8 lbs. and 14 lbs. frozen hen quotations were identical in value. This marked a nearly 13-year-long streak of price equality between those two sizes. For participants who joined the turkey industry within those 13 years, the recent divergence in pricing between both weight categories may have come as a bit of a surprise.

While the 8-14 lbs. and even 16-20 lbs. weight brackets have always been closely aligned, prior to 2012, deviations between...

ANALYSIS: Unseasonal Summer for Chicken

Whether or not you have experienced a seasonally "normal” summer thus far in terms of temperature and precipitation is wide-ranging depending on the part of the world you are in. Across the U.S. chicken market though, we can see that from the week of June 24th through today, some of the lines haven’t been sticking to a “seasonal script.” This analysis primarily focuses on jumbo tenders, jumbo whole wings, and jumbo boneless breast meat. Quotations for all these items have been well above the 5-year averages, with tenders, wings, and...

ANALYSIS: Lean Beef Supply on the Cusp of the Fresh 90 Price Bubble

Fresh 90s have been a major topic of discussion this year as prices continue to outpace those of previous years. This increase is significantly influenced by the constrained supply due to lower cow slaughter counts. Throughout 2024, domestic U.S. slaughter numbers for cows and bulls have been on a downward trend as depicted in Figure 1. Comparing the year-to-date for 2024 with the first six months of 2023 reveals a notable decline of 14.3% in the number of heads slaughtered, with approximately 3,094...

ANALYSIS: Upward-Trending Turkey

This year the turkey meat complex hasn't experienced much activity, until fairly recently. From January to the end of April, tom breast meat quotations held at $2.60/lb. delivered, when the 5-year average for this period ranged anywhere from $3.57 to $2.59. Starting the week of April 29, prices started to decrease until they reached $2.20 the week of May 20. Since, prices have steadily trended sideways, contrary to the seasonal norm which indicates an upward trend from the end of April through mid-September... 

ANALYSIS: Brazil Sets New Record High for Beef Exports in July 2024 

The Brazilian beef exports has achieved a new monthly record high in July after totaling 237,268 MT of fresh beef (frozen and chilled) shipped globally, according to the latest preliminary data from the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat. This figure marks a notable 47.56% increase compared to the same period last year’s 160,795 MT and surpasses the previous record of 211,976 MT reached in May 2024 by 11.93%.

China remains the top destination for the Brazilian beef, with a significant increase in import volume last month... 

ANALYSIS: Exchange Rate Dynamics in Mexico’s Beef Industry

The exchange rate has been one of the main topics of conversation throughout 2024 in Mexico's beef industry, due to its significant impact on imports and exports. In both directions, it serves as an incentive to achieve higher returns from the purchase or sale of materials. 

Over the past 10 years, this influence has been particularly evident; as the peso strengthens against the dollar, exports tend to decrease, and vice versa. However, 2024 has presented a significant challenge. The volatility of the exchange rate, driven by both international and local factors...

The Retail Rundown: Multiple Factors Fuel Promotions; CPI Update

As we reach mid-August, grocery stores are transitioning their end caps from summer displays to game-day essentials, gearing up for the NFL regular season. At the same time, circulars are packed with barbecue items for the upcoming Labor Day weekend along with back-to-school essentials as some regions are already welcoming students back to class.

This week, seafood continues to dominate, representing about 28% of total protein volume in retail buying opportunities. Pork follows with a 23.4% share, while beef captures...

ANALYSIS: July 2024 Brings 4.8% Rebound in China’s Meat Imports After Extended Decline

China’s July 2024 meat imports, including variety meats saw a 4.8% monthly increase, reaching 539,913 mt, according to preliminary customs statistics from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China. This marked the first rise after three consecutive months of declines. 

Earlier in June 2024, volumes slipped to a 12-month low, with volumes recorded at 514,957 mt. 

The yearly figures underscored China’s ongoing challenges in the meat sector. Imports continued to plummet, shedding 20.5% year...

ANALYSIS: Chicken Export Volumes in June

Total chicken exports from the U.S. for the month of June were mostly unchanged with only a miniscule 0.3% increase. This is in comparison to the 5-year average month-over-month (MoM) decrease for this period of -5.2%. Much of this may be attributed to improved economies for several countries compared to the past 5 years, as well as changes to HPAI trade restrictions.

The top five export destinations for the U.S. in June were Mexico, Cuba, Canada, Taiwan, and the Philippines. In the past five years, Mexico has... 

ANALYSIS: Australia's July 2024 Beef Exports Skyrocket to All-Time Highs

Australia's beef and veal exports skyrocketed to an all-time high of 129,998 metric tonnes (mt) in July 2024, according to the latest data from the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry (DAFF).

Despite the July figures sitting just 2 mt shy to cross the 130,000 mt mark, they surpassed the last record highs of 123,464 mt that the industry witnessed in May 2015 during the drought season. The key driver factor was the undersupplied United States (US) market, whose herd contraction woes sent buyers seeking out Australia’s...

ANALYSIS: All Time High Prices for Veal Carcasses 

Since data collection began in 1994, prices for the UB Hide-off Veal Carcasses in the Northeast have reached record highs, with the current quotation at $480-500/cwt this week. Higher calf costs, driven by increased bidding for calves entering the feed cycle, have impacted carcass prices. Strong demand for boneless beef products, combined with reduced cow supplies, has led to significant increases in veal prices, contributing to their all-time high price points that have been steadily climbing since 2020...

ANALYSIS: Beef Rib Market Navigates Choppy Waters as Buyers Exercise Caution

With the summer rapidly ending and back-to-school season here, exports for bone-in ribs have seemingly made their way back into the conversations. The last few years have seen this item move up, down, sideways, and everywhere in-between, but with prices at seasonal lows, it is not surprising buyers are poking around a bit earlier than usual. But it seems this time around, caution is extremely heeded. As mentioned, price action on this item has left both buyers and sellers scratching their heads depending on the...

ANALYSIS: Piecing together the turkey production puzzle

Now, perhaps more than ever before, turkey market participants are searching for a beacon to illuminate the road ahead. Up until this point, 2024 has proven to be a notably challenging year for marketers, particularly due to the seasonally subdued demand for whole-body turkeys and raw materials. In addition to the unpredictable buying patterns, supply-side indicators seem to raise more questions than answers.

Our chart illustrates that total inventory holdings continue to hover above the previous year’s levels. June’s 1.5% increase marks the nineteenth consecutive month of year-over-year (YoY)...

ANALYSIS: Tenderloins Become Summer's Biggest Underperformer in Beef Market

As we explored earlier this summer, the summer grilling season was not kind to the tenderloin. Little has changed on that front with July now behind us and the “dog days of summer” here with the overall swoon in beef demand. At present, tenderloins sit at $11.80/lb., roughly 12.6% below this time last year. Prices are a touch higher than the five-year average, by just 2.9%. The underperformance for the tenderloin when compared to last year has been the story throughout 2024. And taking just a...

The Retail Rundown: Unsettled Start to August

August began with a sharp decline in the global market, triggered by weak U.S. economic data and disappointing labor market figures. Traders are also assessing corporate earnings and the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates amid concerns of a U.S. economic slowdown.

ANALYSIS: Navigating the Complex Interplay of Factors Impacting Pork Belly Prices

The pork belly market is exhibiting a complex interplay of factors that are impacting prices. While light skinless pork belly prices were initially above year-over-year levels from January to mid-July, they have since reversed course, with 11-13 derind bellies currently sitting 47% below year-over-year levels. This coincides with peak bacon demand season, typically characterized by elevated bacon processing and active food service demand and as a result, historically higher values.

This year, however, slaughter levels have been elevated for most...

ANALYSIS: New Zealand's Beef Exports in 1H 2024, Balancing China's Decline and US’s Growth

In 1H 2024, New Zealand’s beef exports totalled 287,509 metric tonnes (mt), posting a modest 1.5% gain or 4,182 mt compared to the same period last year, data from Stats NZ indicated. 

Most of this growth were led largely by increased allocations to the United States (US), Canada and Japan, while sharp declines were noted to the Chinese market. The undersupplied US market has been a solid destination for New Zealand’s beef as China demand’s falters, taking up the lion’s share of the country’s exporting capacity. 

ANALYSIS: Turkey Cold Storage, Opposite Poles

As the chart illustrates, June’s month-over-month (MoM) uptick for whole birds of 10.0% aligns with the 5-year average MoM change of 12.6%. However, cold storage inventory of whole turkeys is at the lowest it has ever been for the month of June and is 12.2% lower than the 5-year average. Much of this can be attributed to factors such as HPAI and metapneumovirus. Part of it though, may also be contributed to an effort on the part of some producers not to put up whole turkeys when...

The Retail Rundown: Summer and Back-to-School Fuel Deli Demand

As August approaches, consumers are eager to savor the last weeks of the summer season. With Labor Day weekend—the unofficial end of summer—just five weeks away, some retailers have already begun stocking up for the holiday.

In the meantime, back-to-school items, including snacks and sandwich ingredients, are beginning to appear in circulars. The deli counter is currently benefiting from summer activities as day-trippers make meals for picnics and various outings.

Last week, the lunchmeat sector generated nearly $26.8 million in total sales, up...

ANALYSIS: Korea’s 1H Beef Imports Dip 3.6% YOY Amid Weak Demand, Market Shake Up Looms Over FTA

Korea imported 248,113 mt of beef in the first half of the year, marking a 3.6% (9,182 mt) decline compared to the same period last year, the latest Korea Customs Service data showed.

The country sourced most of its beef from Australia (46.3% market share), the United States (US) (46.3% market share), with New Zealand (3.9% market share) and Canada (3.0% market share) making up the rest.

In January to June 2024, imports from Australia surged 13.9% year-on...

ANALYSIS: Record Price Gap Between Pork 72 Trimmings and Boneless Beef 90s in July

The monthly price spread between UB pork 72 lean trimmings and UB boneless beef 90s in July has increased to $2.92/lb, the largest spread ever recorded since data collection began in 1985. Pork trim can sometimes substitute for beef trim in hot dog production, offering a cost-effective option when domestic boneless beef prices are high in least-cost formulations.

Before the 4th of July, pork trim supplies were readily available, but prices have remained full steady post-holiday 

ANALYSIS: Keeping Up With the Chickens

Issues with livability and hatchability have plagued the broiler industry over the past couple of years. In a theoretically perfect world, if the number of eggs set is increased, in approximately three weeks, chicks placed will increase, and in another six to eight weeks or so, more chickens will be harvested. However, if we look at the data, this doesn't appear to be the case.

Broiler-type pullet chicks placed have been down compared to the previous year every month in 2024, with a total decrease of 4.42% year-to-date (YTD)...

ANALYSIS: Boneless Ribeye Prices, A Mid-Year Report Card

With the dog days of summer here, let’s check in on how boneless ribeyes faired through the first half of the year. When looking at last year’s trends, boneless ribeyes just about feel in-line with the overall trend but failed to match last year's price points by quite a considerable margin. For example, Urner Barry’s Choice LTL boneless ribeye quote traded around $9.40/lb. through the month of April this year compared to $10.50/lb. last year, about a 10% decrease year-over-year...

ANALYSIS: China’s 1H Beef Imports Grew 17% YOY; June 2024 Figures at 13-Month Low

China’s 1H beef imports gained 17% year-on-year (y-o-y) amounting to 1,438,837 metric tonnes (mt) or 1.43 million mt, the newly released General Administration of Customs People's Republic of China data indicated.

The world’s second largest economic powerhouse continued to source beef primarily from South America, with Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay accounting for a substantial 73.4% (1.05M mt) of its supplier base. The Oceanic regions, including Australia and New Zealand, represented 15.0% (216,300 mt), while the United States contributed just 4.8%... 

ANALYSIS: Decreased turkey production doesn’t always mean increased prices...

As we look back on the past six months of production data, it becomes clear that the turkey industry is on a trajectory to harvest much fewer birds at the end of this year and the beginning of next year than it did in 2023. When it comes to the number of eggs in incubators and poults placed, '23 was by no means a stellar year. In fact, the year-to-date (YTD) total of eggs in incubators was about 2.0 million eggs short of the cumulative 10-year average...

The Retail Rundown: Competition for Ad Space Intensifies

As the final full week of July comes to a close, the retail sector is promoting at-home eating during the dog days of summer, a time when protein consumption typically drops due to the heat and fewer major retail buying occasions.

Competition for ad space is heating up, with seafood and pork leading the way, each capturing 25.8% of retail buying opportunities this week. Beef follows with 22.4%, unchanged from the previous week. Chicken has increased to 17.7%, up from 16.4% last week. Eggs account for 4.5%, with most feature activity...

ANALYSIS: Dog Days of Summer Bite Beef Market as 0x1 Strip Prices Plummet

The dog days of summer are here, and strips have so far seen typical seasonality take hold. Much like in years past, prices for many of the higher-value middle meats, such as 0x1 strips, see prices adjust lower as demand wanes amid the hottest days on the calendar. Consumers find it difficult to grill steaks during frequent heatwaves. The current week has been the catalyst for this move as since July 8, our quotation for Choice...

ANALYSIS: YTD Chicken Weight Distribution Over Time 

While chicken production has clearly increased in the past ten years when looking at the data on a year-to-date (YTD) basis, there’s also been a definite shift in weights of chickens harvested. This year’s total YTD head count is up 6% from 2014 at a value of approximately 4.37 million birds. This is following 2023’s nearly 4.47 million birds produced, the highest YTD production of the past ten years.

While overall chicken numbers have increased since 2014, production of certain weight categories...

ANALYSIS: May Turkey Export Volume Reveals Generally Conservative Changes from April

May’s turkey export data showed that volume comparisons with April were mostly conservative compared with the five-year average changes. The total amount of turkey sold to foreign buyers decreased by approximately 1%, compared to a five-year average increase of 5% for this period. Moving from April to May, the top three export buyers of U.S. turkey remained as Mexico, Canada, and Jamaica absorbing 31.76 million pounds, 1.10 million pounds, and 0.77 million pounds, respectively.

Mexico was the primary driver of the overall decrease in turkey...

ANALYSIS: China’s June 2024 Meat Imports at 12-Month Low, 1H 2024 Fell 13.4% YoY

China’s June 2024 meat imports, including entrails, slipped to a 12-month low, with volumes recorded at 514,957 mt, as shown by preliminary customs statistics from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China.

Imports plunged 31.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) and fell 7.5% month-on-month (m-o-m) from May 2024's556,642 mt as the world’s second largest economy continued to struggle with low domestic consumption.

In the first half of 2024, China imported...

The Retail Rundown: Grocers Vie with Foodservice During Peak Travel Season

Summer is usually the peak demand period for foodservice, as warmer weather encourages vacation plans and out-and-about activities. As more consumers embark on trips, spending is typically increased at restaurants and bars.

Data released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Tuesday showed that restaurant business rose 0.3 percent last month, likely supported by the summer travel season. Overall retail sales in June remained unchanged from May, outpacing expectations for a decline. Stock futures climbed following the stronger-than-expected data, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to... 

ANALYSIS: 1H 2024 in Review, Australia’s Beef Industry Navigates Surge in US Exports 

For a relatively small, cattle producing country, Australian beef is heavily traded. In fact, it's on the podium for one of the world's most traded this year. Australia's beef industry in the first half of 2024 has navigated a dynamic landscape reshaped by global market shifts and regional challenges. This period has been marked by significant export expansions to the world’s largest beef market, the US. Despite facing challenges in Asian markets due to evolving consumer demand dynamics, Australia continued to position...

ANALYSIS: Peeled Knuckles Defy Seasonal Trends Fueled by Lean Beef Demand

Back in April, we highlighted how record-high prices of 90% boneless beef had a massive impact on several items within the boxed beef complex, most notably, peeled knuckles. That trend has moved on through the summer as prices for peeled knuckles have reached their highest point in history, aside from 2020, when the COVID pandemic was in full swing.

At present, Choice peeled knuckles sit at $4.00/lb., this is roughly 21.8% higher than at this time last year...

The Retail Rundown: Dog Days Dull Buying Occasions

Holiday retail meat clearance last week was reported as mostly positive albeit a bit scattered due to varying weather conditions across the country. This week, extreme heat and record temperatures are expected to persist in the Western and Eastern U.S.

The sweltering conditions that typically accompany the dog days of summer make it challenging for retail to capture regular meat purchases. The egg case also typically sees fewer purchases around this time of year as consumers opt for cold breakfasts like cereal and fruit...