ANALYSIS: New Zealand's Beef Exports in 1H 2024, Balancing China's Decline and US’s Growth

In 1H 2024, New Zealand’s beef exports totalled 287,509 metric tonnes (mt), posting a modest 1.5% gain or 4,182 mt compared to the same period last year, data from Stats NZ indicated. 

Most of this growth were led largely by increased allocations to the United States (US), Canada and Japan, while sharp declines were noted to the Chinese market. The undersupplied US market has been a solid destination for New Zealand’s beef as China demand’s falters, taking up the lion’s share of the country’s exporting capacity. 

ANALYSIS: Korea’s 1H Beef Imports Dip 3.6% YOY Amid Weak Demand, Market Shake Up Looms Over FTA

Korea imported 248,113 mt of beef in the first half of the year, marking a 3.6% (9,182 mt) decline compared to the same period last year, the latest Korea Customs Service data showed.

The country sourced most of its beef from Australia (46.3% market share), the United States (US) (46.3% market share), with New Zealand (3.9% market share) and Canada (3.0% market share) making up the rest.

In January to June 2024, imports from Australia surged 13.9% year-on...

ANALYSIS: China’s 1H Beef Imports Grew 17% YOY; June 2024 Figures at 13-Month Low

China’s 1H beef imports gained 17% year-on-year (y-o-y) amounting to 1,438,837 metric tonnes (mt) or 1.43 million mt, the newly released General Administration of Customs People's Republic of China data indicated.

The world’s second largest economic powerhouse continued to source beef primarily from South America, with Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay accounting for a substantial 73.4% (1.05M mt) of its supplier base. The Oceanic regions, including Australia and New Zealand, represented 15.0% (216,300 mt), while the United States contributed just 4.8%... 

ANALYSIS: Australia's 1H 2024 Beef Exports Grew 25.7% Y-o-Y, June Volumes Highest Since 2019

Australia’s beef and veal exports surged to 601,408 mt in the first half of 2024, data from the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry (DAFF) indicated. This marked a robust 25.7% increase compared to the same period last year.

Year-to-date (YTD) volumes grew by 123,030 mt buoyed by high Australian production levels. This growth underscores the timely outcome of herd rebuilding efforts initiated since 2021.

This export increase has primarily been fuelled by a supply shortage in the US caused by ongoing...

ANALYSIS: Beef Herd Dynamics – Heifer Slaughter Rates Remain High

Amidst historical lows in the U.S. cow herd population, market observers have noted a significant uptick in the price of Fresh 90% lean boneless beef trimmings, marking nine consecutive weeks of higher weekly weighted averages. The latest Urner Barry weekly weighted average quotation is reported at $3.4936 per pound, an all-time high. This trend traces back to herd liquidation beginning in 2019, spurred by drought conditions across major cattle-producing regions and subsequent elevated feed costs, which disincentivized producers to maintain herd size...

ANALYSIS: The Surge in Boneless Beef Imports Amidst Constrained U.S. Herd

The UB Beef Trimmings, 90% Fresh Chemical Lean quotation reached a record weighted average high of $333.25 per hundredweight on March 18, 2024. Meanwhile, according to the USDA’s latest Semi-Annual Cattle Inventory report, the number of beef cows were reported at 28.2 million head, the lowest level since 1961.

With constrained availability of cows in the domestic market and record high pricing for lean trim, end users look to alternatives to satisfy demand.  They have done so quite successfully through imported boneless beef...

ANALYSIS: Beef 50s and Pork 42s Take Diverging Paths

Over the past decade, fresh beef 50s and pork 42s have generally followed a corresponding trend in pricing. The two items can be used interchangeably for processed products like hot dogs and sausage, with preferences among the processors for the materials sometimes boiling down to cost. 

Fresh beef 50s have historically maintained a premium over pork 42s with recent exceptions observed in 2020 and 2021. In 2020, accelerated export interest, modestly reduced domestic production, conversion line issues, and retail interest for pork sausage supported the value of 42s, making them...