The Retail Rundown: Retail Posts Late-Year Gains, but Food Inflation Heats Up

Early 2026 opens with a mixed picture for the food and broader retail sectors.

Retail sales closed out 2025 with solid momentum, as CNBC/NRF data showed holiday sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31 rising 4.1% from the year prior. Food and beverage stores also ended the year strong, posting a 0.33% month-over-month gain on a seasonally adjusted basis and a 2.85% increase from a year earlier.

That strength now faces challenges as the industry moves into its usual post-holiday slowdown, amplified by...

FMI Statement on December CPI Food Price Numbers

Today [January 13, 2026], FMI – The Food Industry Association commented on the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which show a 0.7% rise in food-at-home prices for December and a 2.4% increase over the last 12 months. FMI Vice President of Tax, Trade, Sustainability and Policy Development Andy Harig offered the following statement.  

“Today’s CPI numbers reflect the ongoing challenge of bringing food inflation under control. Overall inflation remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, and food prices also disappointingly reflected...

Top 10 Headlines on Expana in 2025—and What Could Shape the Next Year in Food and Ag

2025 was a big year for news in the food and agriculture industry. Headlines ranging from livestock diseases and sweeping policy changes to rising geopolitical tensions, shifting tariffs, weather events, and evolving consumer trends influenced commercial strategies, supply chains, and global market dynamics... 

ANALYSIS: US Egg Prices Drop to Five-Year Low Amid Muted Demand, Mounting Inventories

The US shell egg market is facing one of the most sustained periods of pressure seen in recent history, driven by a rare convergence of weak demand across all major channels and a steadily expanding supply base. Unlike prior downturns that were more narrowly rooted in seasonal lulls or market corrections, the present environment reflects a more entrenched imbalance that has proven difficult to unwind.

Demand: Soft Across the Board

On the demand side, performance has been...

Cal-Maine Foods Reports Mixed Quarterly Results Amid Shifting Egg Market Dynamics

Company updates and financial results are circulating in headlines as many introduce a fresh quarter.

Cal-Maine checked in with its latest report showing a mix in its performance for the period fueled by 2025's supply-demand imbalances and historic prices.

"Despite the impact of eggs prices, we believe our performance in the second quarter and first half of the fiscal year demonstrates strength and momentum" said Sherman Miller, president and chief executive officer of Cal-Maine Foods. He continued, " We expect the... 

ANALYSIS: EU Shell Egg Market Eases Amid Holiday Slowdown and AI Risk

As 2025 comes to a close, feedback from market participants points to a gradually loosening EU shell egg market, with holiday-related slowdown and additional imports contributing to a more comfortable supply picture. Reduced trading activity around Christmas and New Year has translated into slower order placement, allowing stocks to build across several member states despite underlying structural tightness.

Market participants report that offers of shell eggs from Ukraine have increased, with quotations generally undercutting EU-origin product and adding to the sense...

The Retail Rundown: Holiday Demand Builds, Pork Steps Into the Spotlight

With just over a week remaining until Christmas, supermarket circulars are serving as the hub for holiday party planning. Most seasonal food shopping is expected to be concentrated this week, with fresh meat and deli items leading the charge.

Store traffic is poised to increase as retailers vie aggressively for holiday dollars in an increasingly competitive retail environment heading into 2026.

Pork took the top spot in this week’s protein features, fueled by a spike in holiday ham promotions. Pork accounted for 30% of total...

ANALYSIS: US Breaking Stock Prices Slide to Two-Year Lows Amid Soft Demand, Rising Supplies

US breaking stock prices have fallen to their lowest levels in more than two years, reflecting mounting pressure from across both demand and supply channels. Retail, distribution, and export channels have all failed to generate the absorption typically expected this time of year, leaving surplus supplies with few viable outlets. Even with some of the lowest shelf prices seen in years, suppliers mostly characterize retail movement as only fair.

The customary lift in buying that typically marks the early stages of...

ANALYSIS: US Shell Egg Prices Retreat as Post-Holiday Inventories Build

Shell egg prices have begun to ease in the post-Thanksgiving period, with Midwest large slipping 3cts to $2.58/dozen on Tuesday—the first downward move since late September. While the holiday performed in line with expectations and, in some cases, exceeded them, early December often brings a natural cooling in demand. Many consumers enter the month well-stocked after the long holiday weekend, leaving retailers to pull lighter volumes as they assess sell-through before committing to fresh rounds of replenishment.

These softer retail pulls, combined with...

The Retail Rundown: Holiday Shopping Lifts Foodservice and Grocery Demand 

December is when most consumers fully embrace the holiday spirit—and start spending accordingly.

This year's holiday spending is off to a strong start, with record shopper turnout and a surge in online activity. Adobe Analytics reports that total online sales from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday amounted to $44.2 billion, up nearly 8% from last year.

Meanwhile, the National Retail Federation reports that a record 202.9 million people shopped over the Thanksgiving weekend, up from 197 million last year. Supermarkets were the most popular destination at 47%, followed closely by online shopping at 45%...

ANALYSIS: Comparing Cage-Free Demand This Thanksgiving to Last

Cage-free wholesale values continued to rise this week as Thanksgiving baking demand surged across retail channels. Large national chains have maintained affordable shelf pricing through November, driving strong consumer sales as households prepare for the peak baking period. At some of these chains, cage-free eggs are positioned below $1.50/dozen—an uncommon and striking inversion that puts them roughly 50cts below conventional shelf prices in many other regions. In effect, shelf prices are trending lower than they were heading into Thanksgiving last year, supporting consistent foot traffic despite ongoing pressure on household budgets...

ANALYSIS: EU Egg Market Steadies, Yet Avian Flu Keeps Tension Alive

The EU egg market appears to be settling after a period of sharp price escalation. As industrial buyers scale back year-end procurement, the urgency that had driven recent firming has eased, allowing spot values to stabilize, with slight softening appearing in some segments. Yet supply across most of the EU remains constrained, with only isolated pockets of improvement.

Dried yolk remains a pronounced bullish outlier. Strong demand and minimal inventories continue to push values upward. Its essential role in high-value food applications and limited substitution options keep buyers compelled to secure supply despite rising costs...

The Retail Rundown: Cheaper Turkeys Hit Shelves Despite Wholesale Price Surge

This Thanksgiving, holiday shoppers might spot some relief: retail turkey prices have eased, even as wholesale values climb toward near-record highs.

Ongoing challenges, such as persistent bird flu outbreaks and relatively low hatch rates, have limited production all year, leaving supplies exceptionally thin ahead of the holiday. 

While retailers secure turkeys well in advance to build cold-storage inventories, frozen whole-bird stocks in 2025 remain near seasonal record lows, leaving little supply cushion...

The Retail Rundown: A Season of Plenty, Except for Turkey

For retailers, this year’s holiday season is shaping up to be one of plenty. The National Retail Federation (NRF) projects November and December sales to surpass $1 trillion for the first time, underscoring consumers’ continued spending power.

“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.

While foodservice outlets are poised to capture consumer traffic on hectic days, retail prepared foods and frozen entrées are well-positioned to compete for at-home dining occasions as shoppers seek convenient, time-saving meal solutions...

ANALYSIS: Narrowing Price Spread Fuels Competition for Cage-Free Eggs

After two weeks of rapid gains, the cage-free market slowed as distributor participation faded and retail competition took center stage. Distributor demand—which had been strong through early November—has eased as many buyers front-loaded purchases to get ahead of rising wholesale costs and potential bird flu disruptions ahead of Thanksgiving.

With distributors stepping back, market focus has shifted to retail buyers, particularly on the conventional side. Some of the lowest everyday shelf prices and widespread feature activity have...

The Retail Rundown: Turkey Promotions Climb as Holiday Demand Takes Hold

Turkey ads now make up nearly 4% of protein features this week and are on pace to capture a larger share next week as seasonal demand gathers momentum. Beef holds 23.8% of ad space, pork accounts for 22.8%, and chicken eased to 19%—down one point from last week. Eggs have 3% of this week’s buying opportunities, up one point compared to the week prior.

Within the turkey category, ads for frozen whole birds and fresh or frozen parts are evenly split, each accounting for 28% of turkey features...

ANALYSIS: Cage-Free Wholesale Values Surge Amid Retail Strength and Bird Flu Caution

Cage-free wholesale values surged again this week as both retail strength and precautionary buying surrounding bird flu ahead of the peak baking demand period help to sustain momentum. Buyer activity along the West Coast intensified noticeably, giving the market its most active tone in months.

Demand along the West Coast has held firm as competitive shelf prices and consistent promotional activity continue to support consumer engagement. Several large-scale chains in the Golden State have maintained prices near $1.50/dozen for cage-free eggs...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana’s Weekly Rundown #32

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

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This week, the US administration has continued to pressure trading partners like India to curb imports of Russian oil as to sanction the country during its war with Ukraine, cited Expana...

China's Meat Output Rises Nearly 4% Through Third Quarter 2025 as Imports Fall

China’s meat sector rose 3.8% through the first three quarters of 2025, driven by strong domestic poultry output, while import volumes slumped, according to recently released data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). 

The broader economic picture shows that the world’s second-largest economy grew 4.8% during Q3, its slowest pace in a year, as weak domestic demand left China increasingly dependent on strong export activity. 

Although the growth rate keeps China on track for its roughly 5% annual target, economists question whether the momentum is sustainable, given the country's reliance on external demand amid trade tensions with the United States...

ANALYSIS: US Cage-Free Market Begins to Ascend

Since mid-July, the cage-free market has been on a steady decline, interrupted only by brief periods of stability. However, with renewed demand for eggs across the US as we enter Q4—and a healthy level of concern surrounding the growing prevalence of HPAI—market values have begun to push upward. 

Retail demand over the past few weeks has been generally average, but when multiple major chains reduced shelf prices to around the $2.50/dozen level or lower while some chains in other segments launched new promotional activity, consumers responded positively. This improvement coincides with cooler weather spurring baking interest, as well as elevated competing protein prices that continue to make eggs an attractive value...

M.C.I. Foods, Inc. Recalls Ready-To-Eat Breakfast Burrito and Wrap Products Due to Possible Listeria

M.C.I. Foods Inc., a Santa Fe Springs, Calif., establishment, is recalling approximately 91,585 pounds of specific lots of ready-to-eat (RTE) breakfast burrito and wrap products containing egg that may be adulterated with Listeria monocytogenes (Lm), the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) announced today.

The individually packaged and bulk packed frozen breakfast burritos and wraps were produced between September 17, 2025, and October 14, 2025. A list of the products subject to recall can be found here...

ANALYSIS: EU Egg Market Tightens Amid Widespread Bird Flu Outbreaks

The EU egg market remains under pressure, with overall availability described as limited, as recent bird flu outbreaks continue to unsettle sentiment and constrain supply. In Spain, concerns have intensified following the detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) at a layer hen farm housing 727,000 birds. The facility was already under surveillance after a previous case was reported in the same area last month...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana’s Weekly Rundown #30

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

Click to read: "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #30."

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On October 7, US President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Carney met in the White House. The possibility a US-Canadian trade deal was a main topic of discussion...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #29

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

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...

On September 29, the US placed 50% tariffs on imports of timber, lumber, and their derivative products, according to the US Presidential Action. 

Also starting October 1, the US will be imposing 100%...

US Baking and Milling Industry Execs Discuss Countering Inflationary Pressures - Agri-Food Americas

As inflationary pressures persist through 2025, leaders in the North American bakery and milling industries are grappling with supply chain complexities that continue to reshape procurement strategies and product portfolios.

On the sidelines of the recent Agri-Food Americas 2025 conference in Chicago, executives from Sara Lee Frozen Bakery and Bay State Milling outlined to Expana how ingredient costs, tariffs, and operational uncertainties are driving adjustments across their businesses.   

Jason McDonald, Senior Manager of Procurement at Sara Lee Frozen Bakery

ANALYSIS: US Egg Market Sinks to 16-Month Lows Despite Fresh Bird Flu Outbreak

The US egg market remains under intense pressure this week, with conventional large slipping below $2.00/dozen for the first time since May 2024. Soft demand at retail, coupled with rising production ahead of the fall holiday stretch, has tipped the balance firmly against sellers...

HPAI Impacts and Dynamics within the Egg Market - Agri-Foods Americas 2025

In a presentation that cracked open the complexities of this year's egg market, Ryan Hojnowski- Market Reporter, shared his expert insights at Expana's Agri-Food Americas 2025 conference. He called the audience's attention with a deeply informative analysis highlighting the current egg market's challenges and dynamics.

The industry has faced significant disruptions, with the loss of 60 million egg layers between October 2024 and June 2025 due to the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak. This loss coincided with...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #28

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

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On Tuesday in New York, US President Trump gave remarks to the United Nations General Assembly, via the White House live stream...

Dino Nuggets On the Go? Tyson Drops New Chicken Cups

On September 22, Tyson Foods dropped chicken nuggets in a brand-new form: Chicken Cups, as detailed in a company press release. These new nugs are available in grocery freezers throughout the USA.

"Tyson Foods’ Innovation team developed this new cup format after recognizing the consumer need for more convenient ways to eat chicken. Ideal for busy lifestyles, the cups are stored frozen and can be enjoyed straight from the microwave in 90 seconds to 2 minutes," read the release...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #27

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

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US tariff revenue may be used to fund the nation’s farmers, reported Reuters about an interview between Agriculture Secretary Rollins and the Financial Times...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #26

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

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Despite 50% tariffs remaining on Brazil and India, the Indian Prime Minister Modi and US President Trump expressed positivity that the respective trade teams would reach a deal, according to their latest social media...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #25

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

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In the States, a federal appeals court ruled that US President Trump’s use of global tariffs exceeded presidential authority, but they remain active until at least October 14, 2025...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #24

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On August 22, Canadian Prime Minister Carney dropped most retaliatory tariffs on US products, beginning September 1, reported Expana in an article that suggested the move may help soothe trade relations...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #23

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

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This week, tariff news took a bit of a backseat to US President Trump’s dealings with Russian President Putin in Alaska—along with President Trump’s meeting with many European leaders...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #22

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The timeline for tariff negotiations between the US and China trade teams has been extended for another 90 days—moving the deadline to November 10, according to a White House fact sheet...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #21 

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

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...

On August 6, US President Trump issued an executive order that imposes a new 25% additional ad valorem tariff on imports from India into the States, effective 21 days after the White House announcement...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #20

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As of July 27, the United States and the European Union reached a trade agreement: The US will charge a 15% tariff on all imports across-the-board from the coalition of countries...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #19 

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

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...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #17

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

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This week, reciprocal tariffs were re-announced in the form of letters from the US Trump administration to trading partners who could not reach a trade deal within the previously granted 90-day pause...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #16

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

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Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #14

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Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #13

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Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #12

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

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This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #11

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Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #10

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

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Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #8

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Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #7

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Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #6

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Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #5

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Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #4

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This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text...