Crop-Threatening 'Super El Niño' Also Likely to Create Regional Winners, Say Expana Experts

This year’s (2026-2027) El Niño weather phenomenon can significantly affect global commodities, and food price inflation can be expected, especially if it is confirmed to be what is commonly known as a ‘Super El Niño’.

While most of the mainstream media's focus is on the devastating consequences of the Super El Niño phenomenon, it is worth noting that it will have a large but also highly varied economic impact across different regions. There are both winning and losing countries - and by extension, agricultural commodities

Cattle Futures Extend Losses on Screwworm Concerns as Grain Markets Slide

Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) live and feeder cattle futures remained under heavy pressure Wednesday after sharp losses in the previous session, as traders weighed reports of a potential New World screwworm (NWS) case in Texas.

Samples from a suspected NWS infestation at a cattle operation in La Pryor, Texas, have been sent to a federal laboratory in Iowa for testing, Texas Representative Don McLaughlin told Reuters. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has not confirmed a Texas case, though the agency on Tuesday reported an NWS detection about 25 miles south of the Texas border.

Feeder cattle futures led the selloff, with the August contract breaking below key support to a multi-month low...

Middle East Market Intelligence Brief: Week Ending May 29, 2026

Three months into the Iran war, the United States and Iran have reached a tentative framework to extend a ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and ease some US blockade measures, though the deal has not been approved by US President Donald Trump, reports Reuters. 

The proposed agreement would create a 60-day window for broader negotiations after months of conflict disrupted global oil, LNG, and other commodity markets. Major unresolved issues include Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, and security in the Strait of Hormuz.

The framework is seen as a temporary de-escalation measure aimed at stabilizing energy markets rather than...

Study Quantifies How Red Meat Exports Boost Domestic Feed Demand for Corn and Soybeans

Red meat exports delivered significant returns to corn and soybean producers in 2025, according to an independent study conducted by the Juday Group and released by USMEF.

Nationally, U.S. beef and pork exports accounted for $2.18 billion in market value to corn producers in 2025, $375 million to distiller’s dried grains with solubles (DDGS), and $1 billion to soybean producers, according to the study. U.S. beef and pork exports contributed an estimated total economic impact of 13.5% per bushel to the value of corn and 10.3% per bushel to soybeans in 2025.

Day 33 of Iran War: US, Israel Intensify Strikes on Iran Amid Diplomatic Deadlock

US and Israeli airstrikes have continued across Iran, targeting industrial and civilian infrastructure, including steel plants and pharmaceutical factories, according to Iranian state media and officials.

US President Donald Trump, who is scheduled to deliver a White House address this evening, said the war could be wrapped up within two to three weeks even without a formal agreement. He warned he might reconsider America’s commitments to NATO if European allies do not play a larger role in countering Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz...

USDA Launches TRUMP Mission to Vietnam to Expand Market Access for American Farmers

The U.S. Department of Agriculture launched a Trade Reciprocity for U.S. Manufacturers and Producers (TRUMP) Mission to Vietnam this week to open new markets, strengthen export opportunities, and secure fair, reciprocal trade for American farmers, ranchers and producers.

Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke J. Lindberg is leading a delegation representing a cross-section of American agriculture that stands to benefit from expanded access to one of Asia’s fastest-growing markets.

“American farmers, ranchers and producers thrive when they have strong, reliable markets for their high-quality products,” said Under Secretary Lindberg. “By strengthening our...

Day 19 of Iran War: Middle East Supply Fears Boost Oil 6%; US Eases Shipping Rules

The US-Israeli war on Iran is spreading regionally on its 19th day, with missiles and drones targeting Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Jordan. Israel bombed central Beirut early Wednesday, killing at least six people and marking an expansion of the US-Israeli war against Iran. Iran carried out further retaliatory attacks on Israel, causing significant damage, and vowed revenge after Israeli strikes killed security chief Ali Larijani and Basij commander Gholamreza Soleimani.

Global markets remain volatile as US diesel prices climbed past $5 per gallon on Wednesday, marking their highest level since 2022. Meanwhile, the national average price for...

ASA Urges President Trump to Prioritize Soybeans in Upcoming Trade Talks with China  

Ahead of a planned meeting with President Xi Jinping in China later this month, the American Soybean Association is urging President Trump to prioritize U.S. soybeans in ongoing trade talks and secure additional commitments from China to support American farmers and ranchers.  

In a lettersent today to the White House, ASA called for additional purchases of U.S. soybeans and the removal of the remaining 10% retaliatory tariff on U.S. imports into China.

“Farmers continue to face serious headwinds as we enter the 2026 planting season,” said ASA...

Day 17 of Iran War: US Allies Decline Trump's Request to Send Ships to Strait of Hormuz

On the 17th day of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Israel launched a fresh wave of airstrikes on Tehran. Iranian officials dismissed US claims of truce talks, emphasizing readiness to defend the country.

Amid rising tensions in the Gulf region, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says the Strait of Hormuz “is open, but closed to our enemies, to those who carried out this cowardly aggression against us and to their allies”.

US President Donald Trump is pushing allies to form a coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz, while Japan and Australia have said...

Day 14 of Iran War: US Temporarily Eases Russian Oil Sanctions; Shipping Risks Mount 

Israeli airstrikes have hit Tehran on the 14^th day of the Iran war as Iran and its allies launch retaliatory attacks across Gulf states, sharply escalating tensions across the region and disrupting global energy markets.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route linking the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, remains severely disrupted.

On Friday, the US issued a 30-day license for countries to buy Russian oil and petroleum products currently stranded at sea. Oil prices eased following the announcement, though prices are...

Rail Merger Would be Costly for Farmers

The proposed merger of the Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern railways would leave farmers with fewer transportation options and vulnerable to shipping cost increases at a time when balance sheets have been squeezed to the breaking point by rapidly rising input costs. Transportation, marketing and storage expenses are projected to rise to a record $14 billion in 2026. American Farm Bureau Federation economists analyzed the UP-NS merger in the latest Market Intel.

“The risk of the UP–NS merger is clear,” the Market Intel states. “It would leave farmers more dependent...

Day 11: Trump Says Iran War Could End “Very Soon,” But Not This Week

On the 11th day of the US–Israel war on Iran, Tehran endured what officials described as some of the heaviest overnight bombardments so far.

Speaking on Monday, US President Donald Trump commented that the war could end “very soon,” but noted that it would not be over this week. 

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded that Iran would continue fighting for as long as necessary, casting doubt on Trump’s claim that the war may cease in the near future.

Crude oil prices fell more than 10% Tuesday...

Iran War Enters Fourth Day, Driving Higher Crude Prices and Broad Commodity Swings

The US-Israeli war on Iran intensified into its fourth day, with Tehran reporting a death toll of 787 as strikes continue to target leadership and infrastructure. Israel’s campaign, initially described as a two-week operation, is reportedly advancing faster than expected, with no firm end date signaled. US President Donald Trump said the war could last four to five weeks.

Global markets remain on edge. Crude oil surged nearly 4% in overnight trade, while European equities fell sharply. US stock futures also pointed lower, with the three major indices last shedding about 2%...

USDA Accepting Applications for an Agribusiness Trade Mission to Türkiye

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) is now accepting applications for its agribusiness trade mission to Istanbul, Türkiye, scheduled for May 11–14. U.S. exporters interested in exploring trade opportunities in Türkiye, the Caucasus and Central Asia must apply by Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2026.

“With stable economic growth and proven demand for high-quality U.S. food in Türkiye and the surrounding region, now is the time for U.S. agribusinesses and producers to take advantage of the momentum that President Trump has been building in trade worldwide,” said...

Farm Bureau: Treasury Dept. Releases Proposed 45Z Credit Rules

American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall commented on the Treasury Department proposed guidance on the 45Z Clean Fuel Production tax credit.

“We appreciate the Treasury Department moving the needle by publishing proposed guidelines for the 45Z tax credit. It’s an important step to finalize improvements protecting access for domestic feedstocks, which the guidelines specify, and promote American biofuels demand.

“However, this is just the first step. The Departments of Agriculture and Energy must now finalize guidance and resources for calculating carbon intensity scores so that the...

USDA Trade Mission Expands Opportunities for US Agricultural Exports to Indonesia

The U.S. Department of Agriculture will lead a trade mission to Jakarta, Indonesia next week to expand market access, boost American agricultural exports, and take advantage of the new opportunities created by the U.S.-Indonesia Agreement on Reciprocal Trade. 

Led by Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke J. Lindberg, the mission is scheduled for Feb. 2 through 6, 2026, and includes 41 agribusinesses, trade organizations and representatives from three state departments of agriculture.

“This mission is a chance for us to turn the opportunities of the landmark Indonesia trade deal into real sales for American farmers...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #28

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

Click to read: "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #28."

This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text.

...

On Tuesday in New York, US President Trump gave remarks to the United Nations General Assembly, via the White House live stream...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #27

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

Click to read: "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #27."

This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text.

...

US tariff revenue may be used to fund the nation’s farmers, reported Reuters about an interview between Agriculture Secretary Rollins and the Financial Times...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #26

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

Click to read: "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #26."

This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text.

...

Despite 50% tariffs remaining on Brazil and India, the Indian Prime Minister Modi and US President Trump expressed positivity that the respective trade teams would reach a deal, according to their latest social media...

US Implements Japanese Trade Deal; 15% Tariffs, Billions in Investments, Ag Purchases

Later on September 4, the US implemented a previously announced trade deal with Japan–setting a 15% baseline tariff on almost all Japanese goods imported to the US, according to a White House statement about a presidential order. This comes almost a week after tariffs were again disputed in the US judicial system.

The now-implemented deal also created sector-specific carve-outs and outlined commitments on both sides that will affect demand for US agricultural commodities and beyond (namely, for US rice).

Plus, the order carves...

ANALYSIS: Crop Tour Shows Improved Yields but Disease Issues Raise Concerns 

The Pro Farmer Crop Tour, concluding August 21, 2025, painted a nuanced picture of the US corn and soybean crops, with scouts traversing over 2,000 fields across seven Midwest states. Pro Farmer estimated the US corn crop at 16.204 billion bushels, with an average yield of 182.7 bushels per acre, reflecting concerns over disease pressure and uneven field conditions.

Soybean projections came in at 4.246 billion bushels, with an average yield of 53.0 bushels per acre, bolstered by robust pod counts, particularly in states like Illinois and Iowa. Market

Farmer Sentiment Weakens, But Farmers Believe US Policy Headed in Right Direction

Farmer sentiment continues to weaken, as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer declined again in July. The barometer fell 11 points to 135 from June, a reading that resulted from U.S. farmers' weaker perceptions of both current conditions and future expectations. The July Current Conditions Index dropped 17 points to 127 from last month, while the Future Expectations Index posted a smaller decline of 7 points to 139. Driving the weaker income prospects for 2025 were farmers' assessment of current conditions...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #16

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

Click to read "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #16."

This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text...