Middle East Market Intelligence Brief: Week Ending June 12, 2026

A US–Iran memorandum to pause the Gulf war could be signed as soon as Sunday, though wording is still being finalized.

Iran is pushing for the deal to also end fighting in Lebanon and includes demands like lifting sanctions, unfreezing Iranian assets, and halting hostilities across all fronts, while nuclear issues would be postponed.

Trump said a “great settlement” was ready and called off new strikes, but details remain unclear. Reports also suggest tensions persist around the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global energy supplies.
 
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EU: Commission Approves €54 Million Spanish State Aid for Agricultural Companies

The European Commission has approved a €54 million Spanish State aid scheme to support agricultural companies facing increased fuel prices due to the Middle East crisis.

The scheme was approved under the Middle East Crisis Temporary State Aid Framework (METSAF) adopted by the Commission on 29 April 2026. The scheme covers higher diesel prices from late March to late June and will run until 31 December 2026.

Day 55 of Iran War: Iran Refuses Strait Reopening; Peace Timeline Unclear

Iran’s parliament speaker said Tehran would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the US blockade remained in place, calling it a “blatant violation” of the ceasefire between the two sides.

In Washington, the Senate voted 55–46 to reject a war powers resolution aimed at limiting US President Donald Trump’s authority to wage war on Iran, marking the fifth failed attempt to curb presidential war powers. The White House on Wednesday said Trump has not set a deadline by which Iran must submit a peace proposal...

Day 46 of Iran War: Trump Says Iran Deal Still Possible Amid Escalating Gulf Tensions 

US and Iranian negotiating teams may return to Islamabad later this week to resume talks aimed at ending the war, following failed weekend negotiations and the US blockade on Iranian ports. 

Iran’s military denounced the blockade as unlawful and warned it could threaten shipping throughout the Gulf. Even with rising tensions, Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran was still “holding."

Instability in the Strait of Hormuz is increasing pressure on the global energy markets, with roughly 20,000 ships reportedly stuck and major supply chains being disrupted...

Nationwide Survey: Most Farmers Can’t Afford Fertilizer

An overwhelming majority of America’s farmers who responded to a nationwide survey say they cannot afford to purchase enough fertilizer to get them through the year. The percentage who pre-purchased fertilizer varies significantly by region.

Conducted by the American Farm Bureau Federation April 3-11, the survey shows 70% of respondents say fertilizer is so expensive that they will not be able to buy all the fertilizer they need.

More than 5,700 farmers, both Farm Bureau members and non-members, from every state and Puerto Rico took the survey. Farm Bureau economists...

MLA: Survey Highlights Fuel Pressures on Australian Red Meat Industry

A survey investigating fuel availability across the country – conducted by the Red Meat Advisory Council (RMAC) between 20–26 March – has provided insight into the impact of rising fuel prices and supply constraints on businesses within the red meat industry.

In total, 323 respondents across 13 industry sectors – including sheep and cattle farms and feedlots, mixed farms, meat processors, meat smallgoods producers and others – were surveyed.

Key findings from responses collected were...

Day 41 of Iran War: Lebanon Mourns After Deadly Israeli Strikes; Iran, US Clash Over Ceasefire Terms

Lebanon declared a national day of mourning after Israeli air strikes killed over 250 people and injured more than 1,000, marking the deadliest bombardment of the current war. 

Iran said a cessation of Israeli strikes in Lebanon was a key condition of its proposed 10-point plan to end the broader Middle East war. Iran's Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said ceasefire talks were “unreasonable” given what he described as repeated violations, including continued attacks in Lebanon.

Confusion persists within the...

Day 27 of Iran War: Trump Asserts Talks Underway as War Continues

The US-Israeli war on Iran shows no sign of abating, with attacks growing more intense even as US President Donald Trump asserts that peace talks are underway, a claim Tehran has denied.

Trump has asserted that Iranian leaders want a deal but fear internal backlash, and the White House has warned it is prepared to “unleash hell” if Iran refuses a resolution.

Markets continue to react. Oil prices are climbing once more amid fading hopes of de-escalation, while analysts warn the war could disrupt global...