Middle East Market Intelligence Brief: Week Ending October 30, 2026

US President Donald Trump said on Friday that he expects the war with Iran to end soon, although he offered no details on how the hostilities would be brought to a close.

Trump has previously said the United States would not launch strikes against Iran before the midterm elections.

Meanwhile, a Panama-flagged tanker was hit by two limpet mines in the Strait of Hormuz, the first successful attack of its kind since the US-Iran war began. Trump reportedly sent Iran a letter seeking to revive peace talks, but Tehran has yet to respond. 

Below is Expana’s weekly summary of...

PODCAST: Episode 48 - Fueling Food Production: The Volatility of Energy Costs in 2026

Harvest season is well underway and it is the most energy-intensive period of the agricultural year. Meanwhile, the energy cost outlook for the food and agriculture sector remains complex and uncertain. In this episode of Agri-Food for Thought, join Jamie and guest, Senior Forecast Analyst Amanda Rastovic, as they break down the latest in energy market volatility and its impact on the sector. 

Listen now. 

Secretary Rollins Commends Governors for Taking Action on Emergency Diesel Relief

Today, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins recognized the 31 states that have taken early action to complement President Donald J. Trump’s emergency dyed diesel relief initiative and encouraged remaining governors to take corresponding action to provide relief to American farmers, ranchers, and transportation operators.

On October 5, 2026, President Trump, with the strong support of Vice President J.D. Vance, signed Executive Order 14435, Emergency Tax Relief on Diesel Fuel, directing the U.S. Department of the Treasury and Internal Revenue Service (IRS)...

US Revises Canada Tariff List: Some Produce Packaging Lines Dropped, Cocoa Powder Added, and More

On October 23, US tariff reductions on certain Canadian imports were anticipated after Senator Collins (R-ME) took to social media ahead of an upcoming election.

Later the same day, the tariff schedule was amended for Canadian goods subject to the US 50% Section 338 tariff, according to a White House action. For example, 22 products were deleted from the tariff list: Seaweed and other algae, polypropylene sheets, plastic boxes and polyethylene bags, thin plywood, plastic-coated paperboard, corrugated cartons, paper sacks and bags...

Middle East Market Intelligence Brief: Week Ending October 23, 2026

Iran has warned that renewed US and Israeli strikes would trigger attacks on American forces, energy facilities, and other infrastructure. The warnings come as stalled negotiations and increased US military deployments raise concerns about renewed fighting.

Washington is moving additional forces to the region while reducing some personnel at risk. Iran has also warned it could target US warships and undersea internet cables near the Strait of Hormuz, where recent attacks have already sunk two vessels.

Escalating Houthi activity near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has heightened concerns over shipping...

Trump Announces $8 Billion for Farmers and Fishermen to Offset Soaring Diesel Costs

On a campaign swing through Kansas last Monday, President Donald Trump announced a new program to offset high diesel costs incurred by farmers across the country amidst competitive political races in areas like Kansas where voters have not sent a Democrat to Congress since 1932. Trump attributed the plan, called Harvest Fuel Relief program, to Kansas’s incumbent, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, who won his seat by more than 11 percentage points in 2020 but now is locked in a close race with...

Farm Bureau Appreciates $8 Billion in Harvest Fuel Relief for Farmers

American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall commented today on President Trump’s announcement to provide $8 billion in relief for farmers facing higher diesel prices this fall.

“Farmers and ranchers welcome the administration’s announcement of $8 billion in relief through the Harvest Fuel Relief program to help farmers struggling with high diesel prices. We appreciate President Trump and Secretary Rollins recognizing that higher diesel prices have squeezed farmers’ bottom lines. By building on the Farmer Bridge Assistance program, USDA will be able to quickly deliver this...

Trump Administration Announces $8 Billion Harvest Fuel Relief Program

Today [October 19, 2026], President Donald J. Trump, alongside U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins, announced the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will make $8 billion available for one-time payments to American farmers this harvest season to provide relief during temporary market disruptions and increased input costs.

“President Trump is the most pro-farmer president of my lifetime and he is continuing to put Farmers First every day,” said Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins. “Today, I am proud to announce alongside President Trump more targeted relief is coming to our farmers through the Harvest Fuel Relief program...

Middle East Market Intelligence Brief: Week Ending October 16, 2026

On Wednesday, two vessels sank near the Strait of Hormuz within 24 hours after being struck by separate projectile strikes. Attacks have intensified over the past 10 days, with Iran citing the US blockade of its ports and tighter sanctions as reasons for escalating strikes.

Amid shipping disruptions and record-high freight costs linked to the Iran war, the Trump administration is considering easing sanctions on shadow-fleet vessels that have transported oil from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. 

However, the potential move is unlikely to significantly increase vessel availability, analysts say. Many ships still face...

FMI Applauds the Administration’s Announcement on Diesel Prices

The Food Industry Association welcomed the White House announcement yesterday evening regarding actions to address diesel prices. FMI Chief Public Policy Officer and General Counsel Stephanie Harris offered the following statement.

“FMI appreciates efforts by the White House to lower diesel prices and address cost pressures in the supply chain. Diesel fuel is the lifeblood of food production and distribution and impacts every step of the process from field to shelf. Any relief from the pressures associated with getting food to store shelves is welcome as our members remain focused on delivering...

Farmers Grateful for Diesel Tax Relief 

American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall tonight applauded the executive order signed by President Trump to ease limits on the use of tax-exempt dyed diesel fuel to give farmers a break.

"We thank President Trump for recognizing that what happens at the fuel pump directly affects what happens on the farm and therefore at dinner tables across America. Allowing dyed diesel fuel to be used over-the-road will bring welcome relief for farmers because every cent per gallon matters when you're running a fleet of grain trucks or hauling cattle hundreds...

Secretary Rollins Release Statement on President Trump Dyed-Diesel EO Signing

Today [October 5, 2026], U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins issued a statement on President Trump’s new executive order to provide relief for our farmers and ranchers by lifting taxes on dyed-diesel. Today’s action expected to represent approximately $640 million in combined federal and state savings across about 224.6 million harvested acres.

“President Trump is the most pro ranching and farming president in our lifetime. Energy dominance is at the core of putting farmers and ranchers first. This administration has unleashed American energy dominance, and we are now the largest energy producer...

Farmers Call on President Trump to Provide Diesel Price Relief

As farmers and ranchers face record-high diesel costs, American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall today [October 1, 2026] called on the president to take several steps to lower prices at the pump, including a temporary suspension of the federal highway diesel tax.

“Higher diesel expenses are hitting farmers at one of the most fuel-intensive times of the year – harvest,” wrote Mr. Duvall in a letter to President Trump. “Diesel is essential for the American economy and for farmers. Everything on the farm, from running tractors, combines and irrigation equipment to transporting crops...

Middle East Market Intelligence Brief: Week Ending September 25, 2026

Saudi, Turkish, and Pakistani military chiefs are set to meet in Saudi Arabia as Riyadh faces renewed Houthi attacks and seeks support under the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement. The talks coincide with US–Iran negotiations in New York over a phased deal linking Iran’s reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to US economic relief.

Both sides are reluctant to give up leverage, while Gulf states push for restored freedom of navigation and an end to escalation. The November 3 US midterms add urgency as disruption to Gulf energy and shipping routes continues...

FMI Issues Statement on August 2026 CPI Food Price Numbers

Today, FMI – The Food Industry Association commented on the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which show flat food-at-home inflation for August and a 2.2% increase over the last 12 months. FMI Vice President, Tax, Trade, Sustainability and Policy Development Andy Harig offered the following statement.

“The August CPI numbers bring some modest relief for grocery shoppers, with food-at-home inflation holding steady from July, though households continue to navigate the impact of higher prices throughout the economy. The...

Middle East Market Intelligence Brief: Week Ending September 4, 2026

The US and Iran exchanged their heaviest fire since July, heightening concerns that the escalation could continue to disrupt energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz and add to global inflationary pressures.

At the same time, stepped-up US efforts to curb Iran’s oil exports and sanctions evasion are worsening Tehran’s economic strain. Falling oil revenues, a record-low rial, and accelerating inflation could increase pressure on Iran to negotiate, while also raising the risk of further escalation.

Below is Expana’s weekly summary of the war’s most significant effects on...

Middle East Market Intelligence Brief: Week Ending August 28, 2026

US sanctions on Iran intensified this week, with Washington targeting entities linked to Tehran’s oil, shipping, and financial networks whilst threatening secondary sanctions on countries doing business with Iran.

Qatar is stepping up mediation efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran preparing conditions for restoring normal shipping.

US forces say international lanes are open after mine-clearing operations, but traffic remains well below normal levels amid continued tensions and sanctions.

Below is Expana’s weekly summary of the war’s most significant effects on global commodities. For the latest real-time updates, follow...

Middle East Market Intelligence Brief: Week Ending August 21, 2026

Iran has warned that any new US threats will trigger a "devastating” response, while Washington prepares what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calls the toughest sanctions in history in an effort to pressure Iran’s leadership.

Bessent said details will be announced on Monday and suggested the measures are intended to avoid a renewed large-scale military escalation.

Meanwhile, oil prices have risen amid concerns over disruptions to Gulf energy exports, with the US blockade reportedly reducing Iranian oil shipments to China, Tehran’s largest buyer. China has opposed further sanctions and...

Middle East Market Intelligence Brief: Week Ending June 12, 2026

A US–Iran memorandum to pause the Gulf war could be signed as soon as Sunday, though wording is still being finalized.

Iran is pushing for the deal to also end fighting in Lebanon and includes demands like lifting sanctions, unfreezing Iranian assets, and halting hostilities across all fronts, while nuclear issues would be postponed.

Trump said a “great settlement” was ready and called off new strikes, but details remain unclear. Reports also suggest tensions persist around the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global energy supplies.
 
Below is...

EU: Commission Approves €54 Million Spanish State Aid for Agricultural Companies

The European Commission has approved a €54 million Spanish State aid scheme to support agricultural companies facing increased fuel prices due to the Middle East crisis.

The scheme was approved under the Middle East Crisis Temporary State Aid Framework (METSAF) adopted by the Commission on 29 April 2026. The scheme covers higher diesel prices from late March to late June and will run until 31 December 2026.

Day 55 of Iran War: Iran Refuses Strait Reopening; Peace Timeline Unclear

Iran’s parliament speaker said Tehran would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the US blockade remained in place, calling it a “blatant violation” of the ceasefire between the two sides.

In Washington, the Senate voted 55–46 to reject a war powers resolution aimed at limiting US President Donald Trump’s authority to wage war on Iran, marking the fifth failed attempt to curb presidential war powers. The White House on Wednesday said Trump has not set a deadline by which Iran must submit a peace proposal...

Day 46 of Iran War: Trump Says Iran Deal Still Possible Amid Escalating Gulf Tensions 

US and Iranian negotiating teams may return to Islamabad later this week to resume talks aimed at ending the war, following failed weekend negotiations and the US blockade on Iranian ports. 

Iran’s military denounced the blockade as unlawful and warned it could threaten shipping throughout the Gulf. Even with rising tensions, Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran was still “holding."

Instability in the Strait of Hormuz is increasing pressure on the global energy markets, with roughly 20,000 ships reportedly stuck and major supply chains being disrupted...

Nationwide Survey: Most Farmers Can’t Afford Fertilizer

An overwhelming majority of America’s farmers who responded to a nationwide survey say they cannot afford to purchase enough fertilizer to get them through the year. The percentage who pre-purchased fertilizer varies significantly by region.

Conducted by the American Farm Bureau Federation April 3-11, the survey shows 70% of respondents say fertilizer is so expensive that they will not be able to buy all the fertilizer they need.

More than 5,700 farmers, both Farm Bureau members and non-members, from every state and Puerto Rico took the survey. Farm Bureau economists...

MLA: Survey Highlights Fuel Pressures on Australian Red Meat Industry

A survey investigating fuel availability across the country – conducted by the Red Meat Advisory Council (RMAC) between 20–26 March – has provided insight into the impact of rising fuel prices and supply constraints on businesses within the red meat industry.

In total, 323 respondents across 13 industry sectors – including sheep and cattle farms and feedlots, mixed farms, meat processors, meat smallgoods producers and others – were surveyed.

Key findings from responses collected were...

Day 41 of Iran War: Lebanon Mourns After Deadly Israeli Strikes; Iran, US Clash Over Ceasefire Terms

Lebanon declared a national day of mourning after Israeli air strikes killed over 250 people and injured more than 1,000, marking the deadliest bombardment of the current war. 

Iran said a cessation of Israeli strikes in Lebanon was a key condition of its proposed 10-point plan to end the broader Middle East war. Iran's Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said ceasefire talks were “unreasonable” given what he described as repeated violations, including continued attacks in Lebanon.

Confusion persists within the...

Day 27 of Iran War: Trump Asserts Talks Underway as War Continues

The US-Israeli war on Iran shows no sign of abating, with attacks growing more intense even as US President Donald Trump asserts that peace talks are underway, a claim Tehran has denied.

Trump has asserted that Iranian leaders want a deal but fear internal backlash, and the White House has warned it is prepared to “unleash hell” if Iran refuses a resolution.

Markets continue to react. Oil prices are climbing once more amid fading hopes of de-escalation, while analysts warn the war could disrupt global...