ANALYSIS: Turkey Poult Supply Shrinks in 2025

In what has been a continuation of the established trajectory, turkey poult placements in 2025 are trending notably below the 5-year average for both hen and tom poults, as depicted in the chart. This decline reflects ongoing challenges within the industry, primarily driven by persistent outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) and the growing presence of Avian Metapneumovirus (aMPV). HPAI continues to significantly disrupt operations through forced depopulations, movement restrictions, and prolonged farm downtimes, all of which have reduced the availability of breeder stock and subsequently limited poult supply...

The Retail Rundown: 20th Power of Meat Report Reveals Record-Breaking Meat Sales

The 2025 Power of Meat Study was unveiled this week at the Annual Meat Conference in Orlando, Florida, where Anne-Marie Roerink, Principal at 210 Analytics, shared key insights into shoppers' evolving meat and poultry purchasing habits. Here are some key takeaways from the study's 20th edition: 

Meat sales reach new heights 

This year’s report, released by the Meat Institute and The Food Industry Association (FMI), revealed that the meat department set a new sales record in 2024, reaching $105 billion in total...

ANALYSIS: HPAI Crisis Escalates, Record Losses and Uncertainty in the Turkey Market

On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, with over 1.6 million turkeys lost, HPAI losses have increased 664% year-over-year and 236% from 2022, which previously held the highest YTD losses. Furthermore, 67,400 breeder and breeder replacement hens have been lost to HPAI this year, whereas there were no losses in 2023 and 2024 YTD. In 2022, 37,800 breeder replacement hens were affected.

Additionally, not only have more birds been lost, but more counties have also been affected. So far this year, HPAI has been...

The Retail Rundown: Fresh Buying Opportunities in Bloom

Tomorrow marks the official start of spring, and retailers are seizing fresh opportunities to capture increased spending with occassions like Easter and peak grilling season soon approaching.

However, for some residents, spring still feels distant as a late-season storm sweeps through the Central US today and tomorrow, potentially impacting purchasing and consumption patterns in affected regions. 

With roughly a month remaining in Lent, seafood remains a focal point in retail promotions, accounting for 33% of protein advertisements, primarily driven by fresh/frozen fillets as well...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Exports Face Mixed Performance in January Amid Global Production Struggles

January's turkey export numbers vary widely by individual country, but overall trends indicate a continuation of the pattern we've been observing: demand for turkey remains fairly consistent across several international markets, but lower production levels limit export availability.

Mexico closely follows this trend, with a 9.0% month-over-month (MoM) decrease in volume moved compared to the 5-year average MoM decrease of 10.6%, alongside a 4.9% year-over-year (YoY) decline.

Conversely, Canada, Taiwan, and Jamaica all recorded YoY increases in imported volumes...

The Retail Rundown: Grocers Leverage Seasonal Trends; Inflation Update

As temperatures rise across much of the US, grocers are highlighting seasonal offerings for springtime occasions and grilling essentials.

Retailers are refining their marketing strategies to align with shifting demand, appealing to sports fans to boost traffic in the meat department. However, securing lower year-over-year protein prices remains a challenge, as factors like animal disease continue to affect availability across key categories.

The wholesale chicken market is gaining traction with baseball season on the horizon, driving demand for boneless items. Expana reports that buyers are scrambling to secure supply...

ANALYSIS: March Pet Food Market Insight Report Released

The animal protein and by-product markets experienced various trends in February, with some sectors showing price stability and others facing fluctuations. Factors such as supply constraints, disease concerns, and shifting demand, particularly within the pet food industry, impacted beef, pork, poultry, and plant-based proteins. Additionally, tariffs and global production dynamics continued to disrupt the availability and pricing of essential feed additives like vitamins, minerals, and amino acids...

ANALYSIS: January's Cold Storage Report Reveals Shrinking Turkey Supplies Amid Decreased Production

January's cold storage report further highlights several of the trends that have been discussed in the turkey market for several months now. Overall, there's less turkey in the freezer than there was a year ago. Additionally, month-over-month (MoM) changes in inventory, while generally seasonal, reflect a decreased amount of production available for storage.

All categories on the report were down year-over-year (YoY) with values ranging from 1.7% to 32.2% lower. The smallest YoY difference was for breasts...

ANALYSIS: December 2024 Turkey Export Trends Reflect Record Low U.S. Production

The total month-over-month (MoM) change in U.S. turkey exports in December was in line with the 5-year average, the volume traded was 14.5% below year-ago levels. This lends support to the idea that demand patterns for most international turkey destinations have remained consistent, but a lower amount of production has been available for export. The decreased number of supplies that can be traded to international destinations comes as no surprise considering that the total volume of ready-to...

The Retail Rundown: Seafood Rides the Lenten Wave

With March just around the corner, the first signs of spring and warmer days are emerging—welcome news for both consumers and grocers.

Seafood leads this week's protein advertisements, accounting for 26% of total features, closely followed by beef and chicken at 23% each. Pork ads make up 22%, while turkey holds a 3.5% share. Egg promotions remain scarce, extending a two-week trend.

In the seafood complex, fillet promotions are ramping up ahead of the Lenten season, now making up 33.5% of the category’s volume. Ads for both raw and cooked...

ANALYSIS: Low Production Reflected by Shrinking Inventories, December’s Turkey Cold Storage Report

In December’s cold storage report, all categories of turkey apart from “other” were down year-over-year (YoY), which was the first time that this had occurred in 2024. For even some of the less sought after items to be lower YoY really highlights the intensive production shortages that plagued the industry. This is further magnified by the fact that month-over-month (MoM) increases in whole bird, breasts, and total inventories were far below the 5-year average MoM increase.

Meanwhile, the disappearance of MST.

ANALYSIS: 2024 Turkey Harvest Hits Record Low

2024 marked the first time on record, dating back to 2001, in which the total number of turkeys processed annually was below 200 million. At a value of approximately 198 million turkeys, 2024’s turkey harvest values fell 8.3% below those of 2023, and 9.2% below the 5-year average. This was the second most dramatic year-over-year (YoY) change ever recorded, lagging just behind 2009 when the number of turkeys harvested fell by 9.4%. This is a very important factor to consider when looking at the...

Applegate Farms, LLC Launches New Ready-to-Heat-and-Eat APPLEGATE NATURALS® Breakfast Sandwiches

The makers of APPLEGATE®, the nation’s leading natural and organic meat brand, are continuing their foray into the breakfast conversation with the launch of their fourth breakfast-product innovation in the last 19 months. Introducing, APPLEGATE NATURALS® Breakfast Sandwiches.

With 58% of U.S. adults eating breakfast at home and 18% eating on the road or at work3, this is Applegate’s fourth breakfast innovation in two years, building on the brand’s commitment to provide high quality, protein breakfast options...

ANALYSIS: From Steady to Skyrocketing: The Unprecedented Rise of Fresh Turkey Thigh Meat Prices

On January 21, the fresh turkey thigh meat quotation reached a record level that has steadily risen since then. Still, thigh meat supplies remain nearly nonexistent, and some sellers toss around asking prices that are nearly 24% higher than the previous all-time high of $2.02. This begs the questions: How did we get to this point, and where do we go from here?

Like many high-powered objects, the energy needed for rocketing prices has been slowly accumulating in the...

The Retail Rundown: Record Championship Game Viewership Expected to Drive Food Sales

As January comes to a close, grocers are actively preparing for the year's first major food-buying event, the pro-football championship game in New Orleans.

With a record-breaking audience expected to tune in to the big game on Sunday, February 9, retail and foodservice sectors anticipate a boost in sales as consumers indulge in game-day finger foods.

According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), an estimated 203.4 million U.S. adults will tune in with total spending projected to reach $18.6 billion...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Hatch, Searching for Direction Amid Uncertain Times

Given the ongoing and largely unmitigated threat of disease within commercial turkey flocks, market participants are searching high and low for answers or, at the very least, clarity as to what the production landscape might look like further down the road. Although notoriously challenging to predict even on a “normal” year, there are some tools which could help players to more effectively hone their production expectations for 2025. Perhaps one of our best forward-facing indicators is the turkey hatch stats.

As illustrated by this...

IPPE 2025 Live: HPAI's Growing Impact Prompts Urgent Action in Pet Food Industry

At the AFIA Pet Food Conference, held alongside the IPPE event in Atlanta, Leah Wilkinson, Director of Public Policy and Education for the American Feed Industry Association (AFIA), highlighted the growing threat of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), which has expanded beyond poultry to affect various mammal species, including cats and dogs.

"This has traditionally been a wild bird and poultry issue," Wilkinson said. "But in the past year, we've seen HPAI move into cows, field mice, skunks, raccoons, seals, dolphins, polar bears, tigers, lions, and 

ANALYSIS: Navigating the Frozen Whole Turkey Market

If we take a look at Expana’s current 16 lbs. frozen tom turkey quotation in comparison to all the previous data dating back to 1989, it doesn’t look like current prices are that low. However, when inflation is accounted for, we find that it is in the bottom 1% of listed values. In fact, this week’s data is only higher than the inflation-adjusted quotations of 16 other weeks: Late-February through late-March in 2002 and January to early February in 2004.

Interestingly, this value, which is 24% lower than...

APHIS Updates Policy to Enhance Surveillance of Turkey Flocks in HPAI Affected States

As part of its ongoing, multi-faceted efforts to combat the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) today is updating its policy for pre-slaughter surveillance to enhance testing of turkey flocks in affected states. In late December 2024, APHIS became aware of a genetic link between turkeys potentially infected with HPAI H5N1, virus detected in raw pet food, and an infected household cat.

Out of an abundance of caution, and to...

Foreign-Owned Agricultural Land in the US Increases

From 2022 to 2023, there was a 1.58-million-acre increase in foreign-held agricultural land, according to Farm Bureau. In the US, 45.85 million acres of agricultural land were held by foreign investors in 2023, representing 3.61% of total privately held agricultural land, according to the USDA’s Agricultural Foreign Investment Disclosure Act (AFIDA) report which shows an upward trend of land ownership by foreign entities across the nation. 

Since 2010, reports of foreign-held agricultural land have increased. This expansion is 21 million acres, or an area larger than South Carolina...

Capriotti's Sandwich Shop Debuts First Location in New Jersey

Capriotti's Sandwich Shop (Capriotti's), known for its award-winning, hand-crafted cheese steaks, turkey subs and more, has announced its debut in New Jersey with opening of a new location in Princeton. The shop is slated to open in the Princeton Shopping Center, at 301 N Harrison Street Unit 470 on Jan. 21st, 2025. Capriotti's introduces local communities across the U.S. to the brand's 40-year-old tradition of slow-roasting whole, all-natural turkeys in-house, and other one-of-a-kind sandwiches made using the freshest ingredients...

The Retail Rundown: Weekly Protein Recap; CPI Update

Seafood leads protein advertising for a third consecutive week, accounting for nearly 31% of total ad space. Pork follows with nearly 23% and beef makes up 21%. Chicken represents 19% of the advertising share, while eggs capture less than 1%.

The seafood category shows mixed price trends year-over-year (YOY), with fresh cod fillets discounted to $8.37 per pound last week—down 53 cents from the previous year. Prices for catfish and tilapia remained steady YOY, each averaging about $6.60 discounted...

USDA’s Third New Ruling: Aimed to Help Contract Chicken Farmers

As part of the Packers & Stockyards Act of 1923 which sought to even the agricultural playing field for the meat and animal protein industry, the USDA will now give contract chicken farmers better insight into payment rates for their birds, according to a press release. 

This is the third installment in a series of regulation reforms under the Biden-Harris administration which is intended to level the playing field, bring stability and fairness, and should provide information about capital improvements farmers must make to keep and/or renew...

The Retail Rundown: Post-Holiday Slowdown Influences January Spending 

January typically marks a slowdown in consumer spending as households transition from the holiday season to their regular routines.

Early in the month, retailers experience a short-lived boost in sales, driven by replenishment efforts after the holiday food rush. As schools reopen and guests leave, families restock essentials for breakfast, lunch, and weeknight meals.

This restocking coincides with New Year’s resolutions, especially those focused on healthier eating. Consequently, shoppers gravitate toward the perimeter of the stores where fresh items, including produce, proteins, and dairy, are featured. Although retail...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Industry Faces Record Low Harvests During a Period of Rising Demand

November’s turkey slaughter numbers set a new seasonal low, with 16.4 million head of turkeys harvested. This continues the trend observed throughout 2024, during which five of the previous ten months recorded harvest values that set new record lows for their respective months. Notably, the lowest harvest ever recorded occurred in March, with only 15.5 million turkeys processed.

The industry is undoubtedly feeling the impact of these cutbacks, particularly during a period of strong retail demand for turkey parts and raw materials... 

Bird Flu Detected in Indiana Turkey Flock Impacting More than 20,000 Birds 

The highly pathogenic avian influenza, commonly known as bird flu, has been confirmed in a commercial turkey facility in Indiana. This marks the first detection in the state since January 2024, when 13,071 turkeys were affected in a previous outbreak.

As of January 4, 2025, the Indiana State Board of Animal Health has provided an update on the current situation regarding avian influenza in the state, available on their website here.

The latest outbreak was reported in a commercial turkey flock in Jay County... 

ANALYSIS: November Turkey Cold Storage Indicative of Demand Patterns

In comparison to market pricing, November’s cold storage report may seem contradictory in a couple of instances. However, upon closer inspection, it’s actually very indicative of the state of the market.

The total month-over-month (MoM) change was slightly less dramatic than the 5-year average, with a 34.1% decrease from this past October to November. This is compared to a 5-year average decrease of 46.4%. This was primarily driven by fewer whole birds and breasts exiting the freezer this November, as these two categories made up..

Poultry Farmers Must Pass Biosecurity Audit to Qualify for Indemnity Payments Under New USDA Rule

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) announced an interim final rule that updates the conditions for poultry facilities to receive indemnity and compensation after testing positive for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). 

APHIS said that it will now require farmers to undergo a biosecurity audit before restocking their poultry following an HPAI detection and before receiving any indemnity payments. The decision was based on evidence that strong biosecurity measures remain the most effective strategy for combating HPAI...

ANALYSIS: Market Dynamics and Supply Constraints Drive Record High Turkey Neck Prices

Current frozen tom turkey neck quotations have exceeded the previous all-time high of $1.07 that was seen in late August of 2022...

Potential Impact of a Government Shutdown on USDA Reports

With a potential government shutdown looming, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data on livestock and meat markets, along with numerous other reports and statistics, may become unavailable until further notice.

As Congress races to reach an agreement before the midnight deadline to avoid a shutdown, industry stakeholders are increasingly aware of the importance of maintaining access to unbiased market intelligence to operate effectively. 

In the event of a shutdown, USDA food inspectors and federal animal care workers will remain on duty, but most other federal employees will not be at work...

ANALYSIS: October U.S. Turkey Exports Below Average Amid Lower Production and Higher Prices

The total month-over-month (MoM) change in the volume of turkey exported for October was up 7.6% compared to a 5-year average increase of 15.9%. The top four U.S. turkey export destinations, Mexico, Panama, Guatemala, and Canada, all had lower export volumes this October compared to the 5-year average, while the Bahamas, the fifth largest buyer, purchased more than on average.

Likely, much of the lower-than-average volumes of turkey exported can be attributed to more limited...

The Retail Rundown: Robust Retail Spending This Holiday Season

Retail spending has been robust this year, with recent data released by the U.S. Census Bureau indicating strong retail sales as the holiday season kicked off in November.

According to the Census Bureau, overall retail sales in November rose 0.7 percent month-over-month (MOM) and increased 3.8 percent year-over-year (YOY) In comparison, October saw gains of 0.5 percent MOM and 2.9 percent YOY.

“Job and wage gains, modest inflation and a heathy balance sheet have led to solid holiday spending," said National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz...

Pre-Chill, Post-Chill Turkey Sampling as a Predictor of Salmonella Enterica Contamination 

USPOULTRY and the USPOULTRY Foundation announce the completion of a funded research project by researchers at Kansas State University that aimed to evaluate the connection between indicator microorganisms and Salmonella at re-hang and post-chill stages. The research was made possible in part by an endowing Foundation gift from Cargill. The research is part of the Association’s comprehensive research program encompassing all phases of poultry and egg production and processing. A summary of the completed project is below...

ANALYSIS: Impact of HPAI and Metapneumovirus on Livability in the Turkey Industry

Issues with HPAI and metapneumovirus in the past couple of years have significantly impacted livability in the turkey industry. The current outbreak of HPAI began on February 8, 2022, when a commercial turkey flock in Indiana was confirmed to have contracted the virus. Since then, losses of commercial birds have been reported in thirty-four states and approximately 15.8 million commercial turkey breeders and meat birds have been affected. Losses due to HPAI are highest in the spring and fall through areas of active wild bird migratory traffic...

The Retail Rundown: Seasonal Trends for Ribs vs. Hams

With Christmas just two weeks away, this week’s retail rundown takes a closer look at two traditional holiday centerpieces: rib roasts and hams. These festive favorites have followed differing paths in the wholesale markets this year, potentially influencing their retail performance in the lead-up to the year-end celebrations.

The wholesale rib market began its seasonal ascent in the third quarter, gaining traction in early August. From August 1 through December 10, prices surged by 42 percent, far surpassing the 5-year average increase of 17 percent for the same period...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Cold Storage Decline Continues with 27.8% Drop in October Amid Tightening Supplies

Total turkey cold storage fell -27.8% month-over-month (MoM), continuing the downward momentum in the volume of turkey in warehouses. While following an average trendline, total frozen inventories of turkey have gradually moved from the thirteenth lowest value ever recorded for the month of January to the third lowest in October. In fact, market input suggests that some storage facilities are holding well below 50% of capacity. While this is likely not the case for all facilities since October’s total is...

The Retail Rundown: Diving into December Deals

With the year-end holidays soon approaching, shoppers are eagerly diving into December deals. Retailers aim to capitalize on the season's spending surge with enticing offers on everything from festive foods to decadent desserts, decor, and other holiday items. 

Consumer spending on winter holidays is projected to hit a record-breaking $902 per person this year, according to a survey by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics. This figure marks a $25 increase from 2023 and surpasses the previous record set in 2019 by $16...

The Retail Rundown: Holiday Features in Full Display

In the final stretch to Thanksgiving, turkey ads dominate protein advertisements this week with 29 percent, up from 11.8 percent the week prior and surpassing pork's 26.4 percent. Seafood ads come in at 20.2 percent, followed by beef at 16.4 percent. Chicken takes 6 percent, while eggs still have less than one percent of retail buying opportunities.

Fresh whole turkeys account for half of all turkey promotions, with frozen turkeys making up 40.5 percent. While turkeys take center stage, the holiday season also lifts demand for cold-weather comfort foods and convenient...

ANALYSIS: Shifting Retail Turkey Trends, Disease-Related Adjustments

So far this year we’re seeing a major decline in the number of fresh whole turkeys bought from retailers in Q4. Interestingly, this decreased call doesn’t look like it has much to do with the current price of turkey at retail. Additionally, price and distribution changes vary between the different size categories of turkeys, proving that not all turkey is created equal.

The changes to retail price and distribution of the larger turkeys (16-24 lbs. and >24 lbs.) are fairly straightforward. From the start of Q4...

Each Thanksgiving Dinner Requires a National Effort

As friends and family sit down for a Thanksgiving dinner, very few are aware that the feast on their table is a culmination of efforts of farmers from every corner of the United States. American Farm Bureau Federation economists analyzed the production of the ingredients that go into a classic Thanksgiving dinner, detailing which states produce the most commodities and the production value of those items. The Market Intel provides context to AFBF’s annual Thanksgiving dinner cost survey, which found the average cost of this year’s classic...

PODCAST: Agri-Food for Thought Ep 17 - Thanksgiving Turkey Prices Cheaper in 2024

Jamie chats with Turkey market analyst, Matt Busardo, on the 2024 Thanksgiving cost profile. 

The Retail Rundown: Turkey Takes the Spotlight

According to Circana data, fresh whole turkeys were featured at an average discounted price of $1.48 per pound last week, up from $1.27 per pound during the same period last year.

The most popular turkey sizes, 10–15 and 16–24 pounds, averaged $1.34 per pound, compared to $1.00–$1.10 per pound last year. These prices reflect pre-promotion rates and do not account for additional discounts or free turkey offers.

Whole turkeys are often used as loss leaders to increase holiday store...

Whetstone Distribution Acquires Chicago-Based Anmar Foods 

Whetstone Distribution has acquired Anmar Foods, a Chicago-based meat producer specializing in beef, turkey, chicken, and other animal proteins, including pork, lamb, sausages, and smoked products. 

The acquisition is part of Whetstone’s strategy to expand its regional customer base. The company recently bought several other Chicago-based businesses, including Fulton Market and Pritzlaff Wholesale Meats, as well as Moesle Meats and Queen Foods...

Kroger Reveals Customer Thanksgiving Favorites and Grocery Shopping Habits in Time for The Holidays

In preparation for Thanksgiving, The Kroger Co. surveyed customers to see how they plan to shop and what they plan to eat during the holidays this year.

"Thanksgiving is such a special time of year and we take pride in knowing exactly what is important to our customers during this holiday season," said Tom Duncan, Vice President, Head of Marketing at Kroger. "No matter how they choose to celebrate, we're happy to provide our customers with value on the items they need...

ANALYSIS: Monthly Seasonal Turkey Export Volume Sets Stage for Holidays

From August to September, the total volume of turkey exported decreased month-over-month (MoM) by -6.4%, a slightly more prominent decrease than the 5-year average change of -2.9%. While there were some large MoM increases in export volumes to countries such as Panama, Guatemala, and Jamaica, they did little to sway the overall trend. The volume of U.S. turkey exported to Mexico was responsible for approximately 72.4% of the total export volume. With Mexico importing -8.9% less turkey than the month before, it's no surprise...

The Retail Rundown: This Year's Thanksgiving Dinner May Cost Less 

This week’s protein promotions spotlight seafood, which makes up 33.1 percent of all ads, with pork following at 25.6 percent and beef at 24.3 percent. Chicken features come in at 13 percent, while turkey ads saw a small increase to 3.8 percent, up from 3.3 percent last week but below the 5 percent seen two weeks prior.

Frozen turkeys make up 27 percent of all turkey ads, up 25.7 percent last week, with prices ranging between $2.79 and $5.00 discounted last week.

According to the Expana Thanksgiving Dinner Index 2024...

The Retail Rundown: Holiday Countdown Rapidly Winds Down

With Thanksgiving just three weeks away, the holiday rush is fueling retail traffic as shoppers stock up on essentials. This week, turkey promotions account for 3.3 percent of all protein ads, down from 5 percent the previous week. The number of grocery chains featuring turkeys also declined, with 39 chains participating, compared to 49 chains a week earlier.

Despite fewer promotions, fresh whole turkey sales rose week-over-week, reaching $1.3 million last week, up from $909,368 the week prior, according to Circana...

Thanksgiving Side Dish Showdown: What Do Americans Want to Ban from the Buffet

A New Survey Reveals the Dishes You Can Cut from the Menu to Save Money this Holiday Season.

Thanksgiving is America’s favorite non-denominational holiday. It’s a festive occasion marked by feasts, football, family…and occasional feuding. Tensions may run exceptionally high at the grown-ups’ table this election year, so Savings.com suggests an alternate arena to settle more playful disputes.

White meat or dark? Stuffing or spuds? Should we even call it Turkey Day? Keep conversation light with these collegial controversies and... 

The Retail Rundown: Late-Season Push for Grilling Cuts

As October ends, beef and seafood promotions are neck and neck, each occupying about 25 percent of total advertising space. During the final week of "Pork-tober, pork features account for 20.8 percent of buying opportunities, closely followed by chicken at 20.6 percent.

Though the shift from grilling cuts to roasts has been in motion for a few weeks, a forecast of record warmth in parts of the central and eastern U.S. this week offers a last chance for backyard cooking before winter sets in.

This could spur late-season promotions...

The Retail Rundown: Tuning in to Turkey

Retail promotions for seafood continue to dominate the protein category this week, capturing nearly a third of ad circular space (32 percent). Beef and pork follow, taking up 23 percent and 21.3 percent, respectively. Chicken is up slightly from the previous week at 16 percent. Egg ads held steady at about 3 percent.

Several items were featured at lower prices compared to 2023 last week, with chicken leg quarters averaging $1.55 per pound, 5 cents cheaper than last year. Fresh pork loin prices were down by 2 percent...

ANALYSIS: Turkeys Stuck at Home, Exports Drop in August

On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, total turkey export volumes were down -10% in August, while total export values were up 4%. These numbers could suggest a combination of a few factors. First, export buyers may have been buying less overall production, but the production they were purchasing may have been of a higher value than the previous year.Second, in the case of Mexico, an average YoY increase in the strength of the Mexican peso to the U.S. dollar may have supported Mexican buyers. Last, but certainly not less...

The Retail Rundown:  Port Strike Sends Shockwaves Throughout Supply Chain 

The strike at East and Gulf Coast ports officially began once the calendar turned to October, following unsuccessful contract negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX).

The strike's impact is being felt throughout the supply chain, causing significant disruptions in the flow of goods ahead of the rapidly approaching holiday season. 

In a statement released on Tuesday, USMX stated that its current offer includes a nearly 50% wage increase. In response, ILA said it has rejected USX's offer "because it fails to address...

Hurricane Helene Intensifies U.S. Agriculture Disruptions As Port Strike Officially Starts

Hurricane Helene, a powerful Category 4 storm, made landfall in Florida's Big Bend region on September 26, 2024. The storm caused widespread destruction across the southeastern U.S., with the death toll approaching 125 as of this writing. 

Its damaging winds, storm surge, and flooding led to power outages and infrastructure damage in Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and the Carolinas–with the Carolinas seemingly suffering the greatest impacts. Parts of North Carolina are submerged under water, where roads have been washed out and properties have been flattened. As of October 1...

ANALYSIS: Whole Turkey Quotations From the Start of Q4 to Thanksgiving

Five-year average trends show that quotations for fresh and frozen whole-body turkeys have historically increased by minute amounts between the outset of October through Thanksgiving, regardless of sizing. By the time that the fourth quarter arrives, most whole turkeys for the holidays are already spoken. Still, there are usually buyers who opt to stock up during the weeks immediately preceding Thanksgiving. This is especially true of fresh offerings as evident by the 5-year average quotation change of 0.36% and 0.96% for fresh hens... 

The Retail Rundown: Going All-Out for Autumn

Fall is just around the corner, with the official start of autumn this Sunday, September 22. As cooler weather sets in and travel plans wind down, grocers are ramping up their offerings of seasonal favorites to align with the change in consumer preferences. 

According to the Expana Retail Activity Index, seafood continues to lead for the fourth week in a row, making up 30% of total protein ads. Beef and pork are close behind, each at around 25%, while chicken accounts for 14%. Eggs represent 2.8% of retail opportunities, and turkey has 2.3%...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Exports Close Month On High Note

For those involved in the export sector of the turkey industry, 2024 has been anything but smooth sailing. Geopolitical tensions, fluctuating exchange rates, and variable international demand patterns have all contributed to a challenging landscape for players to navigate. Despite these difficulties, July's export figures showed some positive signs for marketers...

Chomps to Open State-of-the-Art Manufacturing Facility in 2025 to Meet Growing Demand

Chomps, the fastest–growing snack and food brand in the U.S.1, today announces a new state-of-the-art manufacturing facility in Mexico, Missouri, slated to open in 2025. This exciting development marks the next phase in Chomps' long-standing strategic partnership with Western Smokehouse Partners (WSP) and will support Chomps' rapid growth, allowing the brand to meet an increasing consumer demand for better-for-you meat snacks.

The co-investment in a new facility with WSP comes on the heels of Chomps' most...

ANALYSIS: Production Indications Suggest Turkey Supply Pinch

An earlier analysis piece we published described the year-over-year (YoY) change in turkey hatchery figures and quotations for frozen 16 lbs. toms...

ANALYSIS: Ice-Pick: July Turkey Cold Storage

Total turkey cold storage holdings through the end of July were up 4.7% year-over-year (YoY), and 3.3% month-over-month (MoM). A cursory glance at these figures might lead one to surmise that demand for turkey is becoming less and less active. However, these values don't necessarily tell the complete story. Sure, total frozen inventory of turkey is up when compared to the previous year, but it is the fourth lowest value since 1995, and follows 2021, 2022, and 2023, which brought with them three of the... 

ANALYSIS: Thumbing Through the Whole-Body Turkey History Book

From the end of October 2011 until last week, Expana’s 8 lbs. and 14 lbs. frozen hen quotations were identical in value. This marked a nearly 13-year-long streak of price equality between those two sizes. For participants who joined the turkey industry within those 13 years, the recent divergence in pricing between both weight categories may have come as a bit of a surprise.

While the 8-14 lbs. and even 16-20 lbs. weight brackets have always been closely aligned, prior to 2012, deviations between...

ANALYSIS: Upward-Trending Turkey

This year the turkey meat complex hasn't experienced much activity, until fairly recently. From January to the end of April, tom breast meat quotations held at $2.60/lb. delivered, when the 5-year average for this period ranged anywhere from $3.57 to $2.59. Starting the week of April 29, prices started to decrease until they reached $2.20 the week of May 20. Since, prices have steadily trended sideways, contrary to the seasonal norm which indicates an upward trend from the end of April through mid-September... 

ANALYSIS: Piecing together the turkey production puzzle

Now, perhaps more than ever before, turkey market participants are searching for a beacon to illuminate the road ahead. Up until this point, 2024 has proven to be a notably challenging year for marketers, particularly due to the seasonally subdued demand for whole-body turkeys and raw materials. In addition to the unpredictable buying patterns, supply-side indicators seem to raise more questions than answers.

Our chart illustrates that total inventory holdings continue to hover above the previous year’s levels. June’s 1.5% increase marks the nineteenth consecutive month of year-over-year (YoY)...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Cold Storage, Opposite Poles

As the chart illustrates, June’s month-over-month (MoM) uptick for whole birds of 10.0% aligns with the 5-year average MoM change of 12.6%. However, cold storage inventory of whole turkeys is at the lowest it has ever been for the month of June and is 12.2% lower than the 5-year average. Much of this can be attributed to factors such as HPAI and metapneumovirus. Part of it though, may also be contributed to an effort on the part of some producers not to put up whole turkeys when...

Boar's Head Provisions Co. Expands Recall for Ready-To-Eat Meat and Poultry Products 

Boar's Head Provisions Co., Inc., a Jarratt, Va., establishment, is expanding itsJuly 26,2024, recall of deli meat products that may be adulterated with Listeria monocytogenes, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) announced today. The establishment is recalling approximately 7 million additional pounds of ready-to-eat meat and poultry products. Whole genome sequencing results show that a liverwurst sample collected by the Maryland Department of Health tested positive for the outbreak strain of Listeria monocytogenes...

ANALYSIS: Decreased turkey production doesn’t always mean increased prices...

As we look back on the past six months of production data, it becomes clear that the turkey industry is on a trajectory to harvest much fewer birds at the end of this year and the beginning of next year than it did in 2023. When it comes to the number of eggs in incubators and poults placed, '23 was by no means a stellar year. In fact, the year-to-date (YTD) total of eggs in incubators was about 2.0 million eggs short of the cumulative 10-year average...

Gorica Rajcic-Spasojevic Named Headstart Hatching General Manager

Headstart Hatching, a new custom turkey hatchery startup expected to hatch approximately 45 million turkey poults a year, has appointed Dr. Gorica Rajcic-Spasojevic as its general manager.

She brings 35 years of turkey industry expertise to Headstart, having previously held key technical and operational roles with Foster Farms, Jennie-O Turkey Store and Willmar Poultry Company. She is one of the top turkey embryologists in the world.

In her new position, Gorica will oversee operations for Headstart’s state-of-the-art hatchery, the first to include technology from sister company Next Nest Hatching, which provides poults with immediate access to feed, water and light after hatching. She will focus on optimizing poult quality and the potential rewards of introducing early nutrition.

Butterball’s New packaging to Hit Retailer Shelves in August

Butterball is rolling out a new look for its portfolio of retail products for the first time since 2018. The dramatic redesign aims to enhance the consumer shopping experience by incorporating a consistent look and feel across all product lines with easy-to-read labeling, an eye-catching bright blue design, and an interactive QR code to boost shopper engagement with the brand.

“Butterball is always striving to provide a consistent shopping experience for consumers across our different product categories, so achieving that was top of mind for this redesign,”...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Market, A Seasonal Quandary

The turkey market has been particularly challenging for players to successfully navigate over the past several years and, so far, 2024 has been no exception. This scenario is particularly true when speaking about the whole-body bird and raw material sectors where seasonally subdued demand persists here at the mid-year point. Given the fact that wholesale and consumer-facing demand patterns are notoriously challenging to predict on a "normal" year, turkey markets are falling back on traditional supply-side metrics to help illuminate the road ahead...