ANALYSIS: US Egg Market Grapples with Volatility Amid Historic Supply Lows and Demand Swings

The US egg market continues to contend with significant volatility, shaped by historically low production levels and sharp demand fluctuations. The USDA reported on Friday that the national layer flock stands at 285 million head, marking the lowest count for the month of March since 2009. Over the past decade, the average March flock size has been 321 million, highlighting the severity of the current underproduction.

This supply-side constraint is largely due to the ongoing impact of highly pathogenic avian influenza...

ANALYSIS: Cage-Free Price Slows Descent, First Signs of Consumer Relief Underway

Expana’s cage-free large quotation has continued to decline this week, albeit at a slower pace to last, dropping to $5.83/dozen Thursday. This marks a 41% decrease since the market peaked at $9.86/dozen in late February.

Weak retail demand remains the primary force behind declining wholesale values, as inflation-weary consumers continue to push back against high shelf prices. In response, grocers have scaled back their orders to better align with sluggish sales, leaving suppliers scrambling to offload surplus inventory. As recently as... 

The Retail Rundown: Grocers Leverage Seasonal Trends; Inflation Update

As temperatures rise across much of the US, grocers are highlighting seasonal offerings for springtime occasions and grilling essentials.

Retailers are refining their marketing strategies to align with shifting demand, appealing to sports fans to boost traffic in the meat department. However, securing lower year-over-year protein prices remains a challenge, as factors like animal disease continue to affect availability across key categories.

The wholesale chicken market is gaining traction with baseball season on the horizon, driving demand for boneless items. Expana reports that buyers are scrambling to secure supply...

The Retail Rundown: Key Buying Occasions on the Horizon 

March presents key retail buying opportunities as spring holidays approach and Lent influences shopping and dining habits.

With Lent beginning today, meat sales typically decline as participants shift toward seafood. This week, seafood promotions rose to 28% of total retail features, up from 26% last week. Currently, 31% of seafood ads highlight fresh or frozen fillets, with options like salmon, cod, and catfish averaging $9.30 per pound on discount—nearly 9% higher than a year ago.

Elsewhere in the retail landscape, beef and pork each account for nearly 25% of featured promotions...

Trump’s Political Appointments: What They Mean for Commodity Markets

On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump was sworn in for this second term as US President. JD Vance also took the oath of office to become the 47th Vice President.

The new President and his political appointments have dotted headlines in the agricultural commodity space and beyond–grabbing the attention of individuals worldwide. More importantly, the people Trump is bringing aboard to lead, regulate, or deregulate the country’s industries will carry with them implications for domestic and international commodity markets...

National Chicken Council Offers Measure to Help Alleviate Egg Shortage in Wake of Bird Flu

Petition to FDA would divert 400 million eggs to market

In light of the pressure the current highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI or “bird flu”) outbreak is putting on the nation’s egg supply, and resulting record egg prices, the National Chicken Council (NCC) today petitioned the Food & Drug Administration (FDA) to reverse or modify an Obama-era regulation that forces the broiler industry (chickens raised for meat) to discard perfectly nutritious and safe eggs.

“With government risk assessments affirming their safety...

The Retail Rundown: Cold Weather Influences Demand

As February winds down, grocers are looking ahead to the arrival of spring and warmer weather, which typically sparks renewed retail demand after a slower start to the year.

For now, wintry weather remains in full blast, with record-breaking cold temperatures and heavy snow impacting the Central and Eastern US this week. These conditions could support continued retail demand for items like eggs, which are seeing strong consumer interest despite rising shelf prices. However, the extreme cold may not be as favorable for meat consumption, especially in southern regions accustomed to year...

ANALYSIS: EU Shell Egg Market Strengthens Following a Slow January 

The EU shell egg market began 2025 with a sluggish start, as food manufacturers gradually resumed their operations, following typical seasonal trends. The buildup of inventory during the Christmas period, combined with weak demand, led to slight price declines in early January. Breakers were cautious, only purchasing when prices met their expectations. However, retail demand remained active, driven by colder weather and a growing consumer appetite for eggs. 

As January progressed, market conditions shifted. Demand from breakers increased, at the same t

Watch Out for Food and Beverage Companies with Big Game Commercials

It’s nearly time for “The Birds” to face the reigning champions in New Orleans. Food and beverage brands with creative advertising teams and big budgets wait all year to show off their best commercials in the short time they have with viewers’ undivided attention.

Such advertisements are impressive enough to instill annual recall and yearly expectations. Brands like Budweiser, Pepsico, McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, or Doritos are oft-anticipated after years of advertising during the big game.

In 2025, a 30-second national spot during the broadcast...

Pennsylvania State Police Investigating Egg Heist

Pennsylvania State Police are working to crack the case of a large egg heist, reported Fox News. Approximately 100,000 eggs were stolen from the rear portion of a Pete & Gerry’s Organics distribution center in Antrim Township, PA just south of Greencastle. 

The number of eggs stolen would be roughly one-third of a full load, according to Ryan Hojnowski, an Egg Market Reporter for Expana. 

This news comes at a time when egg prices are setting and breaking all-time highs almost weekly. Largely, the high price of this staple kitchen commodity...

Trudeau: Trump Will Pause Tariffs on Canada for 30 Days

As of Monday evening, US President Trump will postpone 25% tariffs on Canada, Reuters reported after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau wrote an X post about the matter.

After the day's second conversation with Trump, Trudeau wrote:

"I just had a good call with President Trump. Canada is implementing our $1.3 billion border plan — reinforcing the border with new choppers, technology and personnel, enhanced coordination with our American partners, and increased resources to stop the flow of fentanyl. Nearly 10,000 frontline personnel are and will be working on protecting..."

USDA Announces Approval of D-SNAP for California Disaster Areas

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced that people recovering from the impact of recent wildfires and straight-line winds may be eligible for food assistance through USDA’s Disaster Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (D-SNAP). Approximately 81,477 households in 28 zip codes in Los Angeles County are estimated to be eligible for this relief to help with grocery expenses.

Through this program, which USDA makes available through states in the aftermath of disasters, people who may not be eligible for SNAP under normal circumstances can participate if they meet...

The Retail Rundown: Record Championship Game Viewership Expected to Drive Food Sales

As January comes to a close, grocers are actively preparing for the year's first major food-buying event, the pro-football championship game in New Orleans.

With a record-breaking audience expected to tune in to the big game on Sunday, February 9, retail and foodservice sectors anticipate a boost in sales as consumers indulge in game-day finger foods.

According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), an estimated 203.4 million U.S. adults will tune in with total spending projected to reach $18.6 billion...

ANALYSIS: US Shell Egg Prices Soar Past $7.00 per Dozen Amid Ongoing Bird Flu Crisis

Just over two years ago, the idea of the U.S. egg market surpassing $5.00 per dozen seemed almost unimaginable. When prices hit a record high of $5.46 per dozen in December 2022, industry participants largely believed that mark would hold for the foreseeable future. But an unprecedented convergence of challenges has shattered those expectations. The relentless spread of bird flu, combined with insatiable retail demand, has pushed prices past the $6.00 threshold—and now beyond $7.00 per dozen...

The Retail Rundown: Arctic Blast Supports Egg Demand While Seafood Leads Ads

Seafood continues to lead the retail protein category for the fourth consecutive week, accounting for 29% of all featured advertisements. Beef comes in second with 25%, while pork and chicken are tied at 20% each.

Arctic air across much of the country and an unusual winter storm in the South have influenced product movement and demand this week. Expana reports that the frigid conditions have boosted egg demand as consumers stock up on essentials.

Wholesale egg prices have ascended to a fresh all-time high, with Expana’s Midwest large quotation at...

Aldi’s Making Waves With New European Locations and a Chardonnay Partnership

In January’s fourth week, news about the discount grocery store Aldi made food industry headlines with talk of expansion, and an alcohol partnership that will help clean the ocean.

In 2025, Aldi is set to open nine stores in London, the company announced. The openings in Wimbledon, Fulham Broadway, Caterham, and Orpington are part of the grocery chain’s £650 million investment in Britain during this new year.

Furthermore, leaders of this grocery chain plan to open 40 new supermarkets in Spain. So, shoppers in regions like Andalusia, Madrid...

Foreign-Owned Agricultural Land in the US Increases

From 2022 to 2023, there was a 1.58-million-acre increase in foreign-held agricultural land, according to Farm Bureau. In the US, 45.85 million acres of agricultural land were held by foreign investors in 2023, representing 3.61% of total privately held agricultural land, according to the USDA’s Agricultural Foreign Investment Disclosure Act (AFIDA) report which shows an upward trend of land ownership by foreign entities across the nation. 

Since 2010, reports of foreign-held agricultural land have increased. This expansion is 21 million acres, or an area larger than South Carolina...

ANALYSIS: New Year, Same Challenge: Bird Flu Continues to Wreak Havoc on the U.S. Shell Egg Market

The U.S. shell egg market saw its fifth consecutive week of increases as of Friday, driven by robust retail demand and ongoing supply constraints tied to the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Earlier in the week, moderating trade levels hinted that the market might be nearing its peak. However, the detection of two new bird flu cases, affecting approximately 3 million layers, dashed hopes of stabilization and, instead, accelerated market gains.

Retail demand has remained unusually...

USDA’s Third New Ruling: Aimed to Help Contract Chicken Farmers

As part of the Packers & Stockyards Act of 1923 which sought to even the agricultural playing field for the meat and animal protein industry, the USDA will now give contract chicken farmers better insight into payment rates for their birds, according to a press release. 

This is the third installment in a series of regulation reforms under the Biden-Harris administration which is intended to level the playing field, bring stability and fairness, and should provide information about capital improvements farmers must make to keep and/or renew...

The International Egg Commission (IEC) rebrands as the World Egg Organisation

The International Egg Commission (IEC) has rebranded as the World Egg Organisation (WEO), a reflection of the organisation’s commitment to evolving alongside the global egg industry and leading the way to a successful collective future.

The new name and identity mark a significant milestone in the organisation’s history; modernising their image, strengthening their global presence, and better aligning with their mission to support and promote the egg industry worldwide.

“This rebrand to the World Egg Organisation represents more than a name change...

European Shell Egg Market Concerned by New Avian Influenza Outbreaks in Italy and France

Italy reported an outbreak of the severe H5N1 avian influenza virus late last week. It was the first outbreak in Italy for several months, according to the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH).   

The outbreak occurred on a large commercial layer farm in the northeast believed to house up to 1 million birds, a market source told Expana.  

The same market source said that now that H5N1 avian influenza is back in Italy, coupled with the spread of other livestock and poultry...

Einstein Bros. Bagels Celebrates National Bagel Day with Free Egg Sandwich

This National Bagel Day, everyone who's ready to give up a New Year's resolution that has them eating cardboard-tasting breakfast cereal can now embrace their cravings. Beginning January 15, Einstein Bros. Bagels Rewards members can 'give it up for Einstein Bros.' with a Free Egg Sandwich with purchase when ordering ahead in the app or online this month.

"Studies show that nearly half of New Year's resolutions are abandoned by the end of January," said Hector Briones, Chief Marketing Officer at Einstein Bros. Bagels. 

Cal-Maine Foods Posts $954.7M in Q2 Sales, Sets New Records Amid Expanding Operations

Cal-Maine Foods, the nation's largest producer and distributor of fresh shell eggs, has announced its financial results for the second quarter of the 2025 fiscal year. The company reported net sales of $954.7 million, marking a significant 82% increase compared to the same period in 2024. This growth was driven primarily by higher prices and strong demand for its products. This quarter the company also set a quarterly record for total dozens sold and specialty dozens sold... 

The Retail Rundown: Post-Holiday Slowdown Influences January Spending 

January typically marks a slowdown in consumer spending as households transition from the holiday season to their regular routines.

Early in the month, retailers experience a short-lived boost in sales, driven by replenishment efforts after the holiday food rush. As schools reopen and guests leave, families restock essentials for breakfast, lunch, and weeknight meals.

This restocking coincides with New Year’s resolutions, especially those focused on healthier eating. Consequently, shoppers gravitate toward the perimeter of the stores where fresh items, including produce, proteins, and dairy, are featured. Although retail...

Top 10 Stories from 2024 on Expana

It was a big year for the food and agriculture industry. Below are some of the biggest headlines that sent shockwaves through the trade... 

ANALYSIS: US Egg Prices Soar as Production Hits Eight-Year Low Due to HPAI Outbreaks 

May 30, 2024: “Over the past two weeks, U.S. shell egg prices have soared by 45%, largely due to the ongoing spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), more commonly known as bird flu. The bird flu has been spreading across the US since February 2022—though not consistently..."

Poultry Farmers Must Pass Biosecurity Audit to Qualify for Indemnity Payments Under New USDA Rule

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) announced an interim final rule that updates the conditions for poultry facilities to receive indemnity and compensation after testing positive for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). 

APHIS said that it will now require farmers to undergo a biosecurity audit before restocking their poultry following an HPAI detection and before receiving any indemnity payments. The decision was based on evidence that strong biosecurity measures remain the most effective strategy for combating HPAI...

Billions in Aid Approved for US Farmers

As a government shutdown loomed, the US Congress passed spending legislation named the American Relief Act which was signed by President Biden on December 21, 2024. For agriculture and food-related commodities, this legislation contains one-time economic assistance payments, disaster relief payments, as well as partial funding from the rolled-over farm bill.

Part of the funding approved was $10 billion to support some American farmers across the nation. Within 90 days, economic assistance payments will only be dealt to farmers of eligible commodities like corn, soybeans, wheat, rice, canola, mustard...

The Shift to Cage-Free Egg Production in the EU

The European Cage-Free Egg Commitment marks a transformative era in animal welfare and corporate responsibility within the food industry. This movement, fuelled by rising consumer demand for ethical practices and advocacy from animal rights organizations, is redefining egg production across Europe. Leading retailers, producers, and food service providers have pledged to eliminate caged systems, setting a new standard for sustainability and ethical agriculture.

The European Union has achieved substantial milestones in the transition to cage-free egg production, with over 50% of laying hens...

FDA Updates “Healthy” Food Definition for US Food Products

Officials from the FDA updated the organization’s definition of the word “healthy,” according to an FDA constituent update. 

A food product’s packaging can bear the word “healthy” if the food adheres to specified limits for saturated fats, sodium, and added sugars. Additionally, “healthy” food contains “at least one of the food groups or subgroups (such as fruits, vegetables, fat-free and low-fat dairy, etc.) recommended by the Dietary Guidelines,” according to the FDA’s new definition. 

For example, a “healthy” grain product should not contain more than 5% saturated fat...

EU Retail Egg Market Thrives Amid Festive Season Surge

With Christmas just a few days away, the industrial egg market has slowed considerably, with demand expected to remain subdued until mid-January. Several breaking stations have taken advantage of this lull to perform routine maintenance on their machinery.

In recent weeks, industrial shell egg prices have been slowing down, following their peak in late November. Currently, values for cage egg averages 2.05 €/kg, reflecting a marginal drop of 0.04 €/kg from the previous week. However, prices are still 24% higher than this time...

ANALYSIS: US Shell Egg Prices Shatter Records Amid Bird Flu Losses, Strong Holiday Demand

US shell egg prices have surged to new all-time highs, fueled by a potent combination of avian flu-related production losses and heightened retail demand throughout the holiday baking season. Expana’s benchmark Midwest large quotation climbed to $5.47 per dozen on Tuesday, narrowly edging past the previous record of $5.46 set in December 2022.

The ongoing spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) has intensified since mid-October, claiming approximately 17 million layers and pullets over the past two months...

The Retail Rundown: Robust Retail Spending This Holiday Season

Retail spending has been robust this year, with recent data released by the U.S. Census Bureau indicating strong retail sales as the holiday season kicked off in November.

According to the Census Bureau, overall retail sales in November rose 0.7 percent month-over-month (MOM) and increased 3.8 percent year-over-year (YOY) In comparison, October saw gains of 0.5 percent MOM and 2.9 percent YOY.

“Job and wage gains, modest inflation and a heathy balance sheet have led to solid holiday spending," said National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz...

ANALYSIS: EU Free-Range Egg Prices Remain Firm Despite Broader Shell Egg Market Weakening

Following 16 weeks of rising prices, industrial shell egg prices in the EU saw a relief in the first week of December, particularly in the Cage and Barn egg categories, which saw significant price drops. However, Free-Range eggs remained an exception, with market participants continuing to face challenges in sourcing them. Despite the typical slowdown in buying activity as the retail and manufacturing sectors wrap up their year-end buying, Free-Range egg prices have remained resilient, holding steady at a...

ANALYSIS: Main Drivers Behind EU Retail Egg Prices in Q4 2024

According to the European Commission, medium/large egg prices averaged €2.28 per kilogram during October and November 2024, and are currently at €2.43 per kilogram, marking a 23.07% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 6.7% year-on-year rise. The surge in egg prices during Q4 2024 can be attributed to a combination of factors.

Firstly, the seasonal demand typical of Q4 has had an immediate effect on prices. This seasonal increase is particularly significant in a market where the EU faces limited self-sufficiency...

ANALYSIS: Soaring EU Egg Imports 

When looking at the first eight months of the year, import volume of shell eggs in the EU more than tripled in the last two years. Extra-EU imports increased by 234% from 12,826 MT in 2022 (Jan-Aug) to 42,889 MT this year (Jan-Aug). This represents 62.2 million euros so far for 2024, down 7% year over year, but up 170% since 2022. 

The main supplier of the EU for eggs is Ukraine, which has a free-trade agreement with the EU. Despite some quotas in place, Ukraine...  

Vital Farms Reports Third Quarter 2024 Financial Results and Raises Fiscal Year 2024 Outlook

Third Quarter Net Revenue of $145.0 million, up 31.3% versus Prior Year Period
Raises Fiscal Year 2024 Guidance and Reiterates Long-term Guidance
On Track to Reach $1 Billion Net Revenue Target in 2027

Vital Farms, a Certified B Corporation that offers a range of ethically produced foods nationwide, today reported financial results for its third quarter ended September 29, 2024.

Financial highlights for the third quarter ended September 29, 2024, compared to the third quarter ended September 24, 2023...

ANALYSIS: U.S. Egg Market Faces Pressure as Price Hikes Cool Consumer Demand

Retail demand across the U.S. has grown increasingly varied this week, influenced by rising shelf prices and differing Thanksgiving preparation timelines among retailers. Over the past week, nearly all retail outlets have raised their shelf prices, reflecting last month’s more than 100% increase in wholesale values. However, these adjustments have been far from uniform. Most large-scale chains are pricing conventional large eggs around $3.00 per dozen, while smaller, regional stores are seeing prices surge above $4.00—and, in some cases...

Introducing IFMA The Food Away from Home Association

After decades of branding itself the International Foodservice Manufacturers Association (IFMA), a new identity for the 72-year-old organization was revealed today – “IFMA The Food Away from Home Association.”

Announced this morning at the organization’s Presidents Conference, the change was prompted by the association’s recent long-term strategic planning that included intensive self-examination and taking a clear-eyed look at the state of the industry...

Publix Reports Third Quarter 2024 Results and Stock Price

Publix’s sales for the three months ended Sept. 28, 2024 were $14.6 billion, a 4.9% increase from $14 billion in 2023. Comparable store sales for the three months ended Sept. 28, 2024 increased 3.4%. The company estimates sales for the three months ended Sept. 28, 2024 increased 0.6% due to the impact of Hurricane Helene.

Net earnings for the three months ended Sept. 28, 2024 were $1.1 billion, compared to $833 million in 2023, an increase of 31.7%. Earnings per share...

ANALYSIS: U.S. Egg Prices Surge to Record October Highs on Retail Strength, Bird Flu Cases

U.S. shell egg prices have surged to a record October high of $4.32 per dozen—a staggering 95% increase since the start of a rapid rally that began on October 10. This rise in prices comes as strong retail demand coincides with a fresh wave of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), which has impacted layer populations and intensified the tight supply situation.

Retail demand has been exceptionally robust in recent weeks, spurred by scattered promotional activity and widespread price cuts...