Deep Global Recession May Start in Spring 2025, Warns Expana

The global economy today shows some parallels to past pre-recession periods. A world PMI below 50, elevated asset prices, for instance, are indicators of a slowdown in business activity.  

Furthermore, rising tariffs, protectionist policies, or geopolitical disruptions could exacerbate trade slowdowns. Consumer spending is also paramount since it accounts for a significant portion of GDP. Monitoring retail sales, credit card usage, and savings rates will be critical.   

With the global economy facing a myriad of challenges and uncertainties, the likelihood of a recession...

ANALYSIS: Korea Poised for Early Activation of Safeguard Mechanism on Australian Beef Amid US Supply

Australian beef imports into Korea could face a tariff rate increase of 24.0% as the Special Agricultural Safeguard (SSG) mechanism is expected to activate earlier than in previous years. Korea's increasing reliance on Australian beef amid dwindling US supply has long suggested an earlier activation of the safeguard tariffs. 

Under the Korea-Australia Free Trade Agreement (KAFTA), the safeguard volume for this year is set at 188,437 metric tonnes (mt). Any imports exceeding this safeguard volume limit in 2024 will incur a tariff rate of 24.0%...

Biden-Harris Administration Delivers Over $26.7 Billion In Market Access for U.S. Agriculture

The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) today announced that the Biden-Harris Administration has secured over $26.7 billion in agricultural market access across the globe for America’s farmers, ranchers, fishers, and food manufacturers. Under President Biden and Vice President Harris’s leadership, United States Trade Representative Katherine Tai and Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack have worked to ensure American agriculture can reach global markets and customers around the world...

ANALYSIS: Production Shortfall Drives New Zealand's Aug 2024 Beef Exports to 10-Month Lows

New Zealand’s August 2024 beef exports totalled 31,741 metric tonnes (mt), hitting the lowest levels since October 2023, according to the latest data from Stats NZ. The volume fell by 18.2% (-7,072 mt) compared to the previous month.

Marking a 10-month low, and falling for the third consecutive month, this decline was primarily driven by New Zealand's two key markets, the United States (US) and China, with smaller drops also seen in markets like Canada, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. In-month volumes was also...

ANALYSIS: Korea’s 1H Beef Imports Dip 3.6% YOY Amid Weak Demand, Market Shake Up Looms Over FTA

Korea imported 248,113 mt of beef in the first half of the year, marking a 3.6% (9,182 mt) decline compared to the same period last year, the latest Korea Customs Service data showed.

The country sourced most of its beef from Australia (46.3% market share), the United States (US) (46.3% market share), with New Zealand (3.9% market share) and Canada (3.0% market share) making up the rest.

In January to June 2024, imports from Australia surged 13.9% year-on...

ANALYSIS: 1H 2024 in Review, Australia’s Beef Industry Navigates Surge in US Exports 

For a relatively small, cattle producing country, Australian beef is heavily traded. In fact, it's on the podium for one of the world's most traded this year. Australia's beef industry in the first half of 2024 has navigated a dynamic landscape reshaped by global market shifts and regional challenges. This period has been marked by significant export expansions to the world’s largest beef market, the US. Despite facing challenges in Asian markets due to evolving consumer demand dynamics, Australia continued to position...

Monthly Import Cargo Continues to Rise Despite Supply Chain Challenges

Monthly inbound cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports is continuing to rise despite a variety of supply chain challenges, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“Lulls between supply chain challenges seldom last long, and importers are currently looking at issues including high shipping rates, unresolved port labor negotiations and continuing capacity and congestion issues from the ongoing disruptions in the Red Sea,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said...

Meat Institute Opposes Section 301 Tariffs; Calls for Comprehensive Trade Agreements

In comments submitted to the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) opposing the proposed modifications to the Section 301 actions, the Meat Institute called for comprehensive trade agreements as a long-term strategy to level the playing field for meat and poultry companies and to hold China accountable for its actions.

“The Section 301 tariffs and resulting retaliatory measures imposed by China have caused undue harm to U.S. agricultural exports, including meat exports. U.S. trade policy, such as the one proposed in this Section 301 action, should not inflict pain...

Trade Barriers Removed from Exports of French and Irish Beef to Republic of Korea

French and Irish beef producers will once again be able to export beef to the Republic of Korea, thanks to the European Commission’s efforts to negotiate the removal of local restrictions on EU beef.

In a significant development for the European beef industry, the Republic of Korea has officially opened market access for beef from France and Ireland. This positive result follows consistent representations made by the Commission, including through direct outreach by Commission Executive Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis...

ANALYSIS: Brazil's Beef Exports Reach Record Highs in May, China's Shares Decline

Brazil has achieved a historical record in beef exports as of May 2024, exporting an unprecedented 211,976 MT of beef. This represents an increase of 1.9% from the previous month and a surged 25.9% when compared to the same period last year. On a YTD basis, the total volume is up by 16.7%.

China remains the leading importer, purchasing 97,876 MT of Brazilian beef in May. However, this figure is slightly lower than April's 101,023 MT ,a 3.1% decrease,  and corresponds to an 11.8% decline compared...

Cleveland-Cliffs to Idle Weirton Tinplate Facility Following Unfavorable ITC Ruling

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. announced today that it will be indefinitely idling its tinplate production plant located in Weirton, West Virginia in April 2024. The need to idle the Weirton plant is a direct result of the unanimous decision issued by all four members of the International Trade Commission (ITC) negating the implementation of anti-dumping and countervailing duties on tin mill products calculated by the Department of Commerce. A WARN notice is being issued today to approximately 900 impacted employees...