ANALYSIS Comparing US Boxed Beef Cutout Values to COVID Highs Amid Current Surge

The current weekly average cutout value is $3.84/lb for Choice and $3.64/lb for Select. During the COVID-19 period, the record high for the Select cutout was a weekly average of $4.20/lb in May 2020, but prices sharply declined afterward, dropping to levels well below the five-year average. At this time in 2020, the Select cutout’s weekly average was approximately $2.10/lb, which...

ANALYSIS: Cage-Free Values Diverge from Conventional as Regional Demand Builds

After months of narrowing, the spread between cage-free and conventional quotations widened this week as the two markets moved in opposite directions—an uncommon divergence. Historically, both categories move in tandem, shaped by similar demand and usage dynamics...

ANALYSIS: Supply Uncertainty Looms Over the UK Beef Market

UK beef production totaled 300,000 tons between January and May 2025, marking a 10,000 tons (3%) decline compared to the same period in 2024, according to the latest data. Monthly output has consistently lagged 2024 levels, underscoring a persistent downward trend and increasing concerns over supply constraints in the second half of 2025.

Despite lower production volumes, slaughter rates remained strong in the first half of 2025. In May, prime cattle slaughter rose by 3% month-on-month to 178,000 head. Market participants suggest this uptick may reflect producers capitalizing on recent strong prices...

ANALYSIS: New Zealand’s May 2025 Beef Exports Surge 15.7% MoM to 49,281 mt

New Zealand’s beef exports rebounded in May 2025, posting a solid 15.7% rise from April to 49,281 metric tons (mt), according to the latest data from Stats NZ.

Volumes rose 6,676 mt month-on-month (MoM) driven by stronger shipments to the United States (US), China, and Canada. Modest gains to the United Kingdom (UK), Taiwan, and Japan also contributed to the higher May figures.

On the contrary, annual growth continued to be hindered by lower cattle kills. Yearly figures fell 10.2% or 5,581 mt, led by reduced shipments to China and Japan. Allocations to New Zealand’s...

ANALYSIS: US Boneless Beef Cold Storage Stocks Fall in May 2025 to Lowest Level in 10 Years

The latest USDA cold storage report showed a decline of 13.7 M lbs of boneless beef in cold storage for May month-over-month (MOM) with current levels at 364.6 M lbs, which is the lowest level in the past ten years. Both lean and fat boneless beef continued to be tight throughout the month of May leading to less stored frozen product. As beef demand ramps up during the summer, especially for products like hotdogs and hamburgers, which boneless beef are key ingredients, cold storage dips as material is pulled out to supplement...

ANALYSIS: YTD EU Egg Exports Down Amid Production Challenges and High Prices

EU egg and egg product exports have declined in the first four months of 2025, dropping to 148,161 tons (egg equivalent weight) from 154,704 tons during the same period last year. This marks a 4.2% year-on-year decrease, indicating a challenging period for the European egg industry. While some export markets such as the UK and Israel have shown growth, the overall trend is downward, with notable declines in shipments to Japan and Thailand and only marginal changes in exports to Switzerland.

The primary factor behind this export contraction is the significant reduction in EU egg production, driven largely by the impact of...

ANALYSIS: By-Products Market Surges on Soybean Oil Price Trends

The US by-products market, particularly fats and tallows, has encountered price increases driven by rising soybean oil trends, following the US Environmental Protection Agency’s proposed Renewable Volume Obligations (RVO). The RVO is a plan requiring fuel companies to blend more renewable sources, such as soybean oil, into biofuels. It proposes biomass-based diesel volumes of 5.61 billion gallons for 2026 and 5.86 billion for 2027. This increased demand for soybean oil has reduced available supply, elevating prices.

The fats and tallows market initially adopted...

ANALYSIS: By-Products Market Surges on Soybean Oil Price Trends

The US by-products market, particularly fats and tallows, has encountered price increases driven by rising soybean oil trends, following the US Environmental Protection Agency’s proposed Renewable Volume Obligations (RVO). The RVO is a plan requiring fuel companies to blend more renewable sources, such as soybean oil, into biofuels. It proposes biomass-based diesel volumes of 5.61 billion gallons for 2026 and 5.86 billion for 2027. This increased demand for soybean oil has reduced available supply, elevating prices.

The fats and tallows market initially adopted...

ANALYSIS: Retail Turkey Distribution Climbs Amid Price Hikes and Inventory Woes

So far, retail distribution of turkey is up 39.6% in June while year-to-date (YTD) it is down 1.9%. The relatively robust June distribution comes at a time when turkey prices continue to skyrocket, as evidenced by the growing gap in this year's Expana Turkey Index compared to the 5-year average.

Despite this June’s Expana Turkey Index outpacing the 5-year average by 40.7%, the average price at retail has only been up 9.7% compared to the 5-year average. This means...

ANALYSIS: May Chicken Cold Storage Maintains Seasonal Trajectory, With Some Exceptions

Chicken cold storage inventories in May rose 1% year-over-year (YOY) and held nearly flat month-over-month (MOM), posting a modest 0.1% gain. This contrasts with the five-year average May decline of 1.9% , signaling a more balanced supply environment, even as individual category trends diverge.

Breasts and breast meat stocks, the largest component of chicken cold storage outside of the “other” category, were essentially unchanged from April, down just 0.1 % versus an average 2.1% seasonal decline...

The Retail Rundown: Independence Day Deals in Focus

As the Fourth of July holiday draws closer, competition for front-page ad space among proteins is heating up. Seafood is currently leading with a 29% share, followed by beef and pork, each capturing 24%. Chicken accounts for 18%, while turkey trails at 2.6%.

Burgers and hot dogs remain backyard barbecue mainstays. Several national grocers were promoting 78–84% lean ground beef under $5 per pound, with eye-catching specials as low as $2.27 on a discounted basis.

Over Father's Day weekend...

ANALYSIS: 2025 Summer Grilling Season Tightens 0X1 Strip-Ribeye Price Gap

As backyard summer cookouts ramp up, attention turns to two grilling favorites: the 0x1 boneless strip and the boneless ribeye. Currently, the 0x1 strip is priced just $0.43/lb, or 3.7% below the boneless ribeye, marking the closest price spread between the two since late February and March 2025, when they nearly reached parity at just a $0.04/lb difference.  

This narrowing spread isn’t unusual. In 2024, a similar trend occurred from early April through mid-July...

ANALYSIS: Cage-Free Market Faces Cross-Sector Pull Amid Shared Supply, Divided Demand

Cage-free values held steady this week at $3.16/dozen. Despite flat quotations, behind-the-scenes movement was more dynamic, driven by a tightening spread between cage-free and conventional prices and a regional surge in demand—most notably along the West Coast.

The price gap between Urner Barry’s rest-of-market cage-free quote and the Midwest large conventional quote has narrowed to just 4cts, marking the tightest spread since the cage-free quote was introduced in 2024...

ANALYSIS: Calf Shortage Drives Veal Market Firm

The special-fed veal market remains tight as fewer calves are available and farming practices continue to change. As of January 1, 2025, the US cattle herd dropped to 86.7 million head, the lowest it has been since 1951 (USDA Cattle Inventory Report). At the same time, about 72% of dairy farms are now breeding cows with beef bulls instead of dairy bulls. This shift has led to fewer male dairy calves being born, which are the type traditionally raised for veal (Drovers; National Cattlemen’s Beef Association)...

ANALYSIS: Tight Supplies and Seasonal Demand Drive the Pork Cutout Higher

The Expana Pork Cutout has risen 26.3% since mid-April and now sits 20.6% above year-ago levels, averaging $117/cwt so far for the week of June 16. This surpasses 2022 values for the same period and is trending toward the higher levels seen in 2021 and during the 2014 PEDv market in June.

Retail demand remains strong, with bacon, ribs, and chops prominently featured as consumers shift away from higher beef prices. Ribs continue to gain momentum ahead of the July Fourth holiday...

ANALYSIS: Chicken Prices Rise Despite Seasonal Record Output

According to the latest USDA slaughter data, the volume of ready-to-cook young chicken produced in April was at an all-time seasonal high with a value of nearly 4 billion pounds.

During April, some processors struggled with live-side issues such as avian metapneumovirus, resulting in lower than anticipated live weights and increased mortality. However, the number of chicks placed in February and March was at an all-time high, which helped allow more production to enter the market despite some of the concerns on the live side...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Producers Eye Potential Supply Boost

While this year's turkey egg sets and poult placements are still below the 5-year average, there has been a year-over-year (YOY) increase in all these values.

Over the past year, supplies of most lines within the turkey complex have consistently been barely adequate to short of needs. This has resulted in rapidly rising prices with 21 quotations reaching new all-time highs. Many participants from both sides of the negotiation table have been anxiously wondering when they are going to start seeing increased availability...

ANALYSIS: Korea’s May 2025 Beef Imports Climb 3.9% MOM to 39,556 mt

Korea’s beef imports in the month of May 2025 amounted to 39,556 metric tons (mt), recording an uptick of 3.9% month-on-month (MoM), according to the latest data from Korea Customs Service.

In line with historical trends, the 1,488 mt monthly increase was supported by higher inbound volumes from the United States (US), New Zealand, and Canada, though a slight dip from Australia capped further gains.

As Asia’s largest beef consumer, Korea imported 4.2% more beef in May 2025 compared to the same...

The Retail Rundown: Grocers Set Stage for Final Summer Push

With Father’s Day in the rearview, grocers are setting the stage for the final big buying event of the summer: the Fourth of July.

The upcoming holiday marks the last major retail push before Labor Day and serves as a key buying window for proteins like beef ahead of the mid-summer lull. To keep product moving, grocers are expected to lean heavily on promotions and feature aggressive pricing in the coming weeks.

Post-Father’s Day, pork and chicken are poised to capture more...

ANALYSIS: Australia’s May 2025 Beef Exports Hover Near Record Highs at 129,477 mt

Australia’s May beef exports reached 129,477 metric tons (mt), just 571 mt below the record set in October 2024, according to data from the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF).

Exports rose 1.8% or 2,306 mt following April’s post-cyclone rebound, marking the second consecutive month of growth. Gains were driven by stronger shipments to the United States and Canada, while volumes to Japan and Korea declined.

Compared to a year ago, overall exports were up 13.7% (+15,554 mt), led by...

ANALYSIS: April Pork Volumes Reflect Global Tariff Strain

In April 2025, US pork exports fell sharply to 582,920,000 pounds a decline of 9.1% from March and 11.1% compared to last April, US-imposed “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs took effect: a baseline 10% duty began April 5, followed by significantly higher country‑specific tariffs on April 9, including a 54% effective rate on Chinese goods. These sweeping measures, and retaliatory levies from both China and Canada in the same period, disrupted established trade flows and significantly squeezed US pork volumes—especially to Canada and China...

ANALYSIS: US Beef Variety Export Destination Comparison between April 2024 and April 2025

In April 2024, the total pounds of beef variety meats exported was 45,372,390 lbs, compared to only 37,242,729 lbs in April 2025. When analyzing specific items, hearts were down by about 4 million pounds, kidneys by around half a million pounds, lips by over a million pounds, livers by nearly 2 million pounds, and tongues by about 139,000 pounds. These few items alone account for roughly 7.5 million pounds not exported in 2025 compared to 2024.

With the tariffs introduced in April 2025...

ANALYSIS: US Imports Record High Volumes of Boneless Beef in May 2025

In May, the US imported 89,704 metric tons (mt) of boneless beef, which was an increase of 16,284 mt from April according to the latest Food Safety and Inspection Service report. These shipment figures include product that was rushed to the US ports ahead of the implementation of new tariffs as well as tariffed product departing the origin port after the April deadline.

Compared to last May, a surge of 31,977 mt more product was entered into the country, a 55.4% increase...

ANALYSIS: CAB and Choice Ribeye Prices Narrow in 2025 Ahead of Father’s Day

With Father’s Day approaching, it’s an ideal time to examine the price relationship between Certified Angus Beef® (CAB) and Choice boneless ribeyes. Year-to-date, Choice ribeyes are priced at $11.84/lb, up 25% from $9.47/lb year-over-year. CAB boneless ribeyes also increased, rising from $10.72/lb to $12.89/lb over the same period, a 20% gain. What stands out is the narrowing price spread between the two programs: from 13% in early June 2024...

The Retail Rundown: Seafood Leads Father’s Day Protein Promotions; CPI Shows Mild Increase

For Father’s Day weekend, seafood leads retail protein promotions, accounting for 28% of total ad volume. Beef follows at 24.8%, with pork close behind at 23.6%. Chicken claims 19% of protein ads, while turkey makes up about 3%.

Egg features remain limited for now but are on track to gain ground next week amid improving retail demand. While egg consumption typically slows around this time of year due to reduced baking and fewer hot breakfasts, eggs are emerging as one of the few proteins seeing price relief at retail—standing out amid peak seasonal...

ANALYSIS: China’s May 2025 Meat Imports Stagnate MOM at 512,582 mt

China in May 2025 imported 512,582 metric tons (mt) of meat, including variety meats, nearly flat month-on-month (MOM), according to preliminary figures from China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC).

Slipping just 0.1% MOM, the decline came as China continued to expand market access across the chicken, venison segments from New Zealand, France and Russia.

However, export licenses of American beef plants were in limbo. The expiration of United States (US) plant licenses in China’s Import Food Enterprise Registration (CIFER) system, placed downward pressure...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Exports Slide, How Tariffs and Other Headwinds Hit the Market

Total turkey exports ended the month of April down approximately 23.7% year-over-year (YOY). This was primarily driven by a 23.5% decrease in the volume moved to Mexico, which made up 83.2% of international purchasing of US turkey for April compared to a 5-year average of 67.1%. Much of the changes to US exports of turkey during the spring can be related to tariffs, along with ongoing production concerns.

The month-over-month (MOM) change was only a decline of 0.9%, compared...

ANALYSIS: Brazil’s May Beef Exports Down 9.7% MoM to 218,066 mt, as US Shipments Drop Nearly 50%

Brazilian beef exports (chilled or frozen) dropped to 218,066 metric tons (mt) in May, according to the latest data released by Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services. This is 9.7% lower compared to April’s figure, but still reflected a 2.9% growth YoY.

Shipments to China represented 50.9% of that volume, or 111,030 mt, up 4.1% MoM and 13.4% higher than last year, firmly securing China’s position as the leading destination for Brazilian beef. China’s...

ANALYSIS: The Butts Are Back, Grilling Season Sparks Price Spike in May

May was marked by a robust rally in pork butt values, propelled by seasonal pulled pork demand, strong export pull, and tightening supply fundamentals. With grilling season well underway and the Fourth of July approaching, sentiments among some market participants remain bullish, particularly as processors and retailers continue to feature this item in promotional rotations and value-added offerings.

¼ trim bone-in butt values averaged $1.46/lb in May, reflecting a full steady to firm tone. This cut experienced a...

ANALYSIS: Chicken Hatch Remains on YOY Upswing

In the chicken market, persistent uncertainty around disease risk, pockets of seasonally atypical market movement, and global trade tension continue to complicate forward-looking strategies for buyers and sellers alike. This environment is pushing stakeholders to seek clearer signals amid the noise. In that regard, hatchery performance is one of the few guiding lights in an otherwise volatile market landscape.

According to the latest USDA hatchery figures, both eggs set and chicks placed continue to post steady year-over-year (YOY) gains. Egg sets for the week ending May 31 reached...

ANALYSIS: From Boom to Bottleneck, 10 Years of US-China Beef Trade and What’s Next

After more than a decade of building momentum, US beef exports to China hit a wall in Q2 2025 as tariffs disrupted one of the world’s most dynamic meat trade lanes. The pause in duties since mid-May has since eased tensions, but trade has yet to see signs of reviving. 

Over the years, China became US’s third largest key destination for American grain-fed cuts especially offal cuts, prized for their suitability in local cuisine. 

While the reprieve is welcome...

ANALYSIS: Supply-Driven Pricing in the Turkey Market

The number of turkeys processed in April was at an all-time low, following a trend that was established in August of last year. HPAI, avian metapneumovirus, and economic limitations all continue to impact the availability of supplies. The record low supplies are influencing an extremely bullish market as 21 of Expana’s quotations reach all-time high levels. Still, participants on both sides of the negotiation table lament the lack of offerings. Many sellers have reportedly taken a cautious approach when it comes to the pricing of certain lines, especially... 

ANALYSIS: Brazil’s Recent FMD-Free Status and Potential Implications for Global Beef Trade

In recent developments, Brazil has been officially recognized as free from foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) without vaccination by the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH), as announced during the 92^nd General Session held in Paris this week. The new status marks a significant milestone in Brazil’s long-term efforts to strengthen animal health systems and bolster sanitary credibility in international markets.

FMD is a highly contagious viral disease affecting livestock, including cattle, swine, sheep, goats and other cloven-hoofed ruminants...

ANALYSIS: EU Egg Imports Climb Further in Q1 2025, Led by Ukraine

EU egg imports continued to rise in the first quarter of 2025, reaching 39,067 MT in egg equivalent weight, according to the latest figures from the European Commission. This marks a significant year-over-year (YoY) increase from 26,061 MT in Q1 2024, and extends the steady upward trend observed since 2022. Much of this growth was once again driven by Ukraine, which accounted for 29,459 MT, up 77% from the same period last year.

Fresh shell eggs remain the dominant import category, totalling 25,341 MT in Q1...

ANALYSIS: Japan’s April 2025 Beef Imports Soar to 12-Month Highs

Japan’s beef imports in April 2025 surged to the highest level in twelve months, climbing for the second consecutive month to 53,125 metric tons (mt), according to the latest data from Japan’s Trade Statistics.

 In line with traditional trends, volumes jumped a staggering 71.5% month-on-month (MoM) or 22,156 mt on the back of stocking replenishment ahead of the ahead of the Golden Week holiday season in early May.

Australia led shipments at 24,150 mt, followed by the US at 20,583 mt. Canada supplied 3,696 mt...

The Retail Rundown: Pork Deals Deliver Summer Savings

Pork promotions are gaining momentum, with value-priced cuts standing out against higher-priced beef and even some chicken items.

Bacon continues to steal the spotlight in the pork category, fueled by strong seasonal demand as consumers stock up on this summer staple. Over Memorial Day, discounted bacon averaged $6.30 per pound, up nearly 3% from last year. Wholesale belly prices have climbed 13% since early April, supported by tightening hog supplies and historically low cold storage stocks.

As grilling season gains momentum, demand for ribs...

ANALYSIS: Lamb and Veal Cold Storage Remains Tight Despite Modest April Gains

According to the latest USDA Cold Storage report, total frozen lamb and veal inventories in April 2025 were 19.627 million pounds, up 0.9% from March but still well below typical levels for this time of year. Compared to April last year, supplies were down 18% and nearly 24% below the three-year average, making it one of the lowest April totals in recent years—just slightly above 2006 and 2011 levels.

Lamb stocks rose modestly by 180,000 pound...

ANALYSIS: Cage-Free Prices Continue to Decline, Though Late-Week Buying Slows Pace

Cage-free egg values continued to slide this week, with wholesale prices falling to $3.16/dozen—a 15% drop from the previous week. While this May has followed a “typical” seasonal pattern for the egg market, subtle changes have begun to emerge as the week progresses—developments not uncommon in late Q2 that hint at a possible turn in the recent market trajectory.

May is traditionally one of the weakest months for shell egg demand, and this year has been no exception...

ANALYSIS: April Pork Cold Storage Remains Tight Despite Seasonal Increase in Volume

April’s USDA Cold Storage report showed total pork inventories at 455.8 million pounds, up 11.3% from March but still 8.7% below the same time last year. This marks the third-lowest April total since the series began in 1999, sitting just above April 2001 and 2004, and suggests that while volumes increased month-over-month, they remain historically low.

Hams contributed significantly to the overall build, with bone-in hams rising 26.9% and boneless hams up 53.2% from March. Total ham stocks reached 87.9 million pounds...

ANALYSIS: US 2025 Prime Grading Surges to Record Highs

As we head into peak grilling season, it's an ideal time to look at Prime grading trends in the beef market. This year, Prime grading percentages have surged well above 2024 levels, reaching unprecedented highs. In early May, 13.2% of cattle graded Prime, marking a 15% increase over the same time last year and even surpassing the Select grade share, which sat at 12%.

This shift is being driven by several key factors. Improved genetics, especially through the use of high-marbling breeds like Angus, combined with longer feeding...

ANALYSIS: April Chicken Cold Storage, Inventory Rebalancing Continues Amid Demand Shifts

Chicken cold storage inventories in April rose 2.1 percent year-over-year, even as total volumes declined 2.3 percent month-over-month. This monthly drawdown was more significant than the typical five-year April average decline of 1.7 percent, reflecting an active reduction in certain categories as seasonal demand shifts into focus.

Breasts and breast meat, which account for the largest portion of total chicken in cold storage, declined 5.8 percent from March. Inventories remain 7.5 percent above year-ago levels and are consistent with historical averages...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Inventories Remain at Multi-Year Low

The latest cold storage report continues to reflect the strain on the US turkey supply chain. Total turkey inventories fell to 318.8 million pounds in April, marking a new seasonal low and an 18.4% year-over-year (YoY) decline from April 2024. This represents the seventh consecutive month of YoY reductions.

A combination of reduced hatchery figures when compared to last year, along with ongoing disease issues, continues to limit overall production output. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) detections year-to-date (YTD) are...

ANALYSIS: US Boneless Beef Cold Storage Declines Despite Increasing Shipments Overseas 

Boneless beef cold storage stocks stood at 376.9M lbs in April, according to the latest USDA cold storage report. This figure represents a decline of 10.3M lbs from March and 9.9M lbs from the previous April.

Seasonally, cold storage levels tend to drop heading into the summer as grilling season begins and consumer demand for beef rises. This year, April recorded the lowest boneless beef cold storage figure for the month in the past decade.

Meanwhile, US imports of boneless beef surged in April...

The Retail Rundown: Father’s Day Fires Up Demand for Premium Cuts

Meat sales over Memorial Day weekend appeared to underperform in some regions this year, as cool weather across the Midwest curbed outdoor grilling activity.

Retailers are now setting their sights on the next major grilling event, Father’s Day, paired with hopes for improved weather. Falling on June 15th this year, the event presents another opportunity to drive protein consumption. 

This week’s retail buying opportunities are led by seafood, which accounts for 28.2% of protein ads. Beef has 26.4%, trailed by pork at 23.2%, chicken at 18%, and turkey with...

ANALYSIS: Cage-Free Price Erosion Accelerates as Buying Interest Fades

Cage-free values continue to decline sharply, dropping 68cts over the past week. While cage-free transactional values had recently been under pressure, the conventional market had provided some support to the broader category through down-packing flexibility. That dynamic has now shifted, as seasonal trends take hold and the entire egg market faces widespread downward pressure. 

The primary driver behind cage-free weakness is soft retail demand. Retailers—especially in California and other states with mandatory cage-free laws—have shown reluctance to put eggs on feature...

ANALYSIS: Slight Dip in Total Red Meat Output Despite Steady Pork Gains in April

The USDA’s latest Monthly Livestock Slaughter report reveals that US commercial red meat production in April 2025 totaled 4.60 billion pounds, reflecting a modest 1% decline from the 4.64 billion pounds reported in April 2024.

Cumulative red meat production from January through April reached 18.1 billion pounds, also down 1% year-over-year. Within the broader protein mix, beef production slipped 1%, veal saw a sharp 40% decrease, and pork edged 1% lower. However, lamb and mutton production bucked the trend...

ANALYSIS: Chicken Production Expectations on the Rise

The May 2025 USDA Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook paints a cautiously optimistic picture for the US broiler industry. While growth remains intact, several factors—including production constraints and global trade uncertainties—are creating a more measured trajectory moving forward. 

US broiler production is now projected to reach 47.5 billion pounds in 2025, reflecting a modest 1.1% increase over last year. This growth is fueled by a higher number of birds slaughtered and slightly heavier average weights. However, the forecast ha

ANALYSIS: New Zealand’s April 2025 Beef Exports Pull Back to 43,739 mt after 10-Month High

New Zealand’s beef exports retreated in April 2025, easing to 43,739 metric tons (mt), according to the latest data from Stats NZ.

Volumes slipped 13.8% month-on-month (MoM), down 7,027 mt from March’s 10-month high. The decline was driven by lower shipments to the United States, China, and Canada, while modest gains to Japan, Korea, and Taiwan helped cap losses.

Annual volumes dipped 2.9% or 1,324 mt compared to a year ago, driven by softer demand from...

ANALYSIS: China’s April 2025 Beef Imports Dips 1.8% MoM to 209,361 mt

China's total beef imports in April 2025 eased back 1.8% month-on-month (MoM) or 3,782 mt to 209,361 metric tons (mt), according to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC).

Inbound shipments fell by 3,782 mt, driven by lower numbers from Brazil, Argentina and New Zealand. However, firmer volumes from the United States (US), Uruguay and Australia cushioned further falls.

On a year-on-year (YoY) basis, imports fell 6.7% or 15,040 mt pressured by rising domestic production...

ANALYSIS: Expectations for Chicken Prices After EU Bans Poultry Imports from Brazil

Brazil, which accounts for approximately 30% of global poultry exports (with China as its top customer, followed by the United Arab Emirates, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa), confirmed its first outbreak of bird flu on a poultry farm on May 16, 2025. In response, the European Commission (EC) has banned imports of Brazilian poultry and poultry meat products to the European Union (EU).

Although the EU represents only 4.4% of Brazil’s total poultry exports, Brazil accounts for approximately 32% of the EU’s poultry... 

ANALYSIS: Turkey Hatch Figures Reflect Supply Pinch with Slight Variations

Given the well accounted for supply landscape surrounding most key segments within the turkey complex at the moment, market participants are closely monitoring for any signs of a shift from the prevailing status quo. Although May marked the nineteenth consecutive month of year-over-year (YoY) declines in the eggs in incubators, there could be some emerging indications that an inflection point may be approaching, at least on paper.

May’s beginning tally of 24.8 million eggs in incubators was just 0.2%, or 51,000 eggs, below the comparable period in...

ANALYSIS: Australia’s Q1 2025 Beef Production Rises 2.7% QoQ on Higher Cattle Turnoff

Australia produced 679,048 mt of beef in Q1 2025 (excluding meat from calves), up 2.7% from the previous quarter, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

Just shy of the Q3 2024 record, the 18,149 mt increase was driven by higher cattle turnoff in Victoria (VIC) and South Australia (SA) due to dry weather conditions. On a quarterly basis, SA lifted 15.6% in beef production while VIC firmed 2.9%.

New South Wales (NSW) produced 7.7% more beef in Q1 2025... 

ANALYSIS: Early 2025 Safeguard Trigger Looms as China Ramps Up Aussie Beef

China’s imports of Australian beef are rapidly approaching the 2025 Special Agricultural Safeguard (SSG) threshold, raising industry concerns that the Most-Favored Nation tariffs could be activated earlier than anticipated.

The 2025 SSG volume is set at 208,307 mt. The latest General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC) data showed year-to-date (YTD) volumes from Australia are tracking above seasonal averages, driven largely by strong grain-fed beef shipments since the start of the year...

ANALYSIS: Pork Cutout Strengthens Ahead of Memorial Day

The Expana pork cutout value continued its gradual upward trajectory, a trend that began in mid-April, posting a 6% gain through Friday’s close. This includes a 3% increase over the past week alone, driven primarily by strength in the ham, picnic, and butt primals, as seasonal demand intensifies heading into the heart of grilling season. Year-to-date slaughter rates are running 1.2% below year-ago levels and cold storage inventories are sitting at record lows, both supporting the cutout value. The approach of the Memorial Day holiday...

ANALYSIS: US Beef Hearts Price Inching Closer to Record High

In the current beef variety market, hearts are attracting a lot of attention. Currently, the weekly average price is up about 44% from the beginning of the year, sitting at approximately $1.68/lb—almost 3% below the all-time high of $1.73/lb recorded in October 2024.

For 2020-2024 the weekly average price was around $1.14/lb and over the last 10 years, the weekly average price of beef hearts has increased by 123.18%. The current high prices can be partly attributed to reduced slaughter...b

ANALYSIS: Korea’s April 2025 Beef Imports Slip MoM to 38,068 mt

Korea’s beef imports in the month of April 2025 amounted to 38,068 metric tons (mt), slipping 5.3% month-on-month (MoM), according to the latest data from Korea Customs Service.

In line with historical trends, the 2,130 mt monthly decrease was driven by lower in-bound shipments across key suppliers such as the United States (US), Australia, Canada and New Zealand.  

Annually, April imports firmed 1.5% year-on-year (YoY), a modest increase of 555 mt, led by higher tonnage from Australia and New Zealand while supply from the...

The Retail Rundown: Seafood Leads Memorial Day Retail Ads; Weather Poses Challenges

Seafood leads retail protein promotions heading into Memorial Day weekend, accounting for 28.7% of total featured protein ad volume. Pork follows at 25.9%, with beef at 21.3% and chicken at 19.3%.

Egg feature volume is virtually absent amid sluggish retail demand. Warmer weather is prompting a shift toward fruit and cereal for breakfast, while elevated, though easing, shelf prices continue to dampen consumer interest, according to Expana.

Within the seafood category, fresh and frozen fillets represent the largest share of advertised items at nearly 28%. Raw shrimp...

ANALYSIS: UK–US Trade Agreement on Tariffs: Implications for the Beef Industry

On May 8, 2025, the United Kingdom and the United States formalized a trade agreement targeting the reduction of tariffs on selected goods, marking a significant shift in bilateral trade relations. Among the headline provisions was the removal or reduction of tariffs on key commodities, notably steel, aluminum, and beef.

A particularly impactful change involves US beef exports to the UK. Previously constrained by a 20% tariff on a quota of 1,000 tons, US beef will now benefit from a zero-tariff quota expanded to...

ANALYSIS: Retail Lamb Demand Peaks with Easter

Retail scanner data from Circana indicates that fresh lamb leg sales rose sharply in April, largely driven by Easter and the cultural traditions associated with the protein. For the week of April 20, 2025 (Easter week), sales totaled over $8.2 million—approximately $700,000 more than during Easter 2024, which occurred earlier in the year. While the average discounted price in 2024 was lower at $5.74 per pound, shoppers in 2025 paid an average of $6.03 per pound and still purchased nearly three times more volume than the prior week...

ANALYSIS: The Rise of Beef and Dairy Animal Crossbreeding in the US 

Beef-on-dairy (beef x dairy) crossbreeding has gained significant traction in recent years, particularly the use of Holstein cows bred with widely used beef cattle breeds.  Financial incentives are present for dairy farmers in times when milk checks remain uncertain.

Historically, however, the beef and dairy sectors have operated as largely separate industries. Dairy farms have primarily focused on milk production, with breeding programs aimed at optimizing traits like milk yield, udder health, and reproductive efficiency...

ANALYSIS: China’s Meat Imports Slip 6.4% MoM to 512,899 mt in April

China in April 2025 imported 512,899 metric tons (mt) of meat, including variety meats, down 6.4% month-on-month (MoM), according to preliminary figures from China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC).

The 34,926 mt decline in exports reflected a mix of challenges. The ongoing cost-of-living crisis has weighed on meat consumption, while a boost in domestic production during Q1 2025, fueled by a recovery in pig farming and higher beef and poultry output, has lessened reliance on imports...

ANALYSIS: Chicken Exports for March Driven by Global Uncertainty 

March 2025 broiler exports totaled 568,711,000 lbs, up 1.8% year-over-year (YoY) and 3.9% from February. While the headline growth appears stable, underlying market movements suggest a broiler export sector navigating increasing trade friction and market realignment.

Taiwan saw the steepest decline, with volumes falling 47.3% YoY and 69.5% month-over-month (MoM), landing far below its 5-year March average. This aligns with ongoing geopolitical strain and shifting procurement policies, possibly tied to broader regional trade conflicts and retaliatory barriers that have sharply reduced...

ANALYSIS: US Retail Tongue Distribution and Non-Discounted Price Leading up to Cinco de Mayo

According to Circana data for week ending the last Sunday before Cinco de Mayo, the average top distribution areas for 2024 and 2025 were: Los Angeles, CA; Phoenix/Tucson, AZ; Dallas-Fort Worth, TX; Roanoke, VA; and New York, NY. Meanwhile, the areas with the highest average price charged to consumers for 2024 and 2025 were: Buffalo/Rochester, NY; Syracuse, NY; Las Vegas, NV; Phoenix/Tucson, AZ; and San Diego, CA.  

Roanoke, VA was a standout because it’s 82 lbs worth 

ANALYSIS: US-Mexico Ribeye Price Gaps and Market Shifts

Historically, the export market for Mexican beef to the US has shown consistent year-over-year volume increases, positioning Mexico as a key source for buyers seeking products to meet inventory needs. However, recent years have brought challenges, with rising demand and price surges in the US market, alongside exchange rate fluctuations, causing price differentials to shift based on factors like seasonality. 

From January to April 2024, Mexican Ribeye averaged between $5.19 and $5.90 per pound, while US No Roll ranged from $6.99 to $7.12 per pound...

The Retail Rundown: Pre-Grilling Season Retail Insights

With Memorial Day fast approaching, retailers are ramping up promotions to jumpstart the unofficial kickoff to the summer grilling season—a crucial window for driving foot traffic and boosting meat department sales.

The next two weeks are key, as market participants closely watch consumer demand ahead of what is typically one of the busiest periods for beef sales. Protein items are being prominently showcased alongside vibrant seasonal produce, enhancing the appeal of in-store displays.

Seafood leads the protein feature mix this week, accounting for nearly 30% of all advertised protein items...

ANALYSIS: Brazilian Fresh Beef Exports Saw a 12.2% Monthly Growth in April, Up 16.3% YoY

The latest data released by Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services showed that the country’s fresh (chilled and frozen) beef exports recorded strong performance in April, reaching 241,573 metric tons (mt). This marks record high for the month, up 12.2% from March and 16.3% higher compared to the same period last year.

China maintained its position as Brazil's leading trading partner, recording an 11.1% MoM growth to 106,639 mt. This represents a 5.6% YoY increase...

ANALYSIS: US Pork Exports Rebound in March 2025 Amid Trade Headwinds and Tariff Uncertainty

In March 2025, US pork exports demonstrated a series of increases across various regions, with total exports reaching 641,018.50 K lbs—a 13.45% month-over-month (MoM) increase and a 3.06% year-over-year (YoY) gain compared to March 2024. This trend indicated short-term demand, though it comes amid notable trade headwinds.

The industry remained on edge over the looming threat of reciprocal tariffs, scheduled to take effect in early April after being delayed by 30 days to allow additional time for negotiations...

ANALYSIS: 2025 US Top Sirloin Butt Prices Climb 48% From January Lows

With grilling season approaching and tenderloins, ribeyes, and strips commanding elevated prices, many consumers are turning to more economical alternatives such as the boneless Choice top sirloin butt. Prices for this item are now at record highs for this time of year, currently sitting at $6.12/lb which shows a 35% increase over 2024 levels and a 48% jump from the lows seen in January 2025. When compared to the 3-year average, current pricing is also 36% higher, highlighting just how strong this rally has been...

ANALYSIS: EU Broiler Market Update - Price Momentum, Production Growth, and Export Potential

The EU broiler market has shown notable price resilience in recent months, as average prices reached EUR 2.88/kg by the end of April 2025. This marks a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, positioning EU broiler prices ahead of those in other major poultry-producing regions such as Brazil and Thailand.

Brazilian broiler prices remain significantly lower, despite modest gains in recent weeks. Current price levels are at approximately EUR 1.5 /kg, highlighting Brazil's continued cost competitiveness in the global poultry market...

ANALYSIS: Uruguay’s Beef Exports Fall in April Amid US Modest Growth and China's Persistent Downturn

According to the latest data from Uruguay’s National Customs Directorate, fresh beef exports totaled 28,142 metric tons (mt) in April. This corresponds to a 6.5% decline compared to March and a 7.0% drop Y-o-Y, reflecting softer demand from the Chinese market, partially offset by modest growth in other regions.

The US remained Uruguay’s top beef export destination after overtaking China two months ago, expanding its share to 41.7% of total volume shipped during April, or 11,723 mt. This represents a modest 2.6% M-o-M increase but a notable 42.6% gain...

ANALYSIS: Chicken Slaughter: A Look at Q1 and What Lies Ahead

The first quarter of 2025 has extended the poultry industry’s trend of constrained production, with slaughter volumes trailing historical norms due to a mix of operational and biological challenges. January began firmly, with federally inspected chicken slaughter reaching 834.3 million head—slightly above both 2024’s level and the historical maximum for the month. However, this strength was not sustained.

February volumes fell sharply to 736.9 million head, reflecting the combined effects of widespread winter storms and plant downtime which limited live bird transport and reduced line schedules...

The Retail Rundown: Grocers Take on Foodservice for a Slice of Mother’s Day Spending

Grocers are gearing up to win a slice of Mother’s Day sales, which are traditionally dominated by restaurants and dining out. While foodservice still captures the lion’s share of spending, supermarkets are making strategic plays to compete for consumers' dollars.

According to the National Retail Federation, Mother’s Day spending is projected to hit $34.1 billion this year—up from $33.5 billion in 2024 and just shy of the 2023 record of $35.7 billion. About 84% of US adults are expected to celebrate, spending an average of $259.04 on gifts and festivities...

ANALYSIS: Chilean Salmon Market and Production Update

In April, the average price for whole fresh Chilean Atlantic farmed salmon 4-5 kg in the United States market ($4.65 lbs. - €9.17 kg) rose by 1.9% month-on-month, amidst a stable whole fish market characterized by adequate supply against moderate demand. Despite the generally stable conditions, the Chilean salmon sector is currently facing instability due to a 10% tariff imposed on its products. This tariff could potentially lower Free on Board (FOB) prices in Chile while increasing consumer prices in the United States, which remains a significant market for Chilean salmon...

ANALYSIS: Mexican Beef Export Trends in Q1 2025

The Mexican beef export market to the US showed mixed trends in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting shifts in trade dynamics. The short period of US tariff imposition on Mexico marked a turning point in market activity, leading some exporters to reduce or suspend shipments while others negotiated agreements to manage the new costs. Exchange rate fluctuations driven by macroeconomic factors initially boosted export incentives but rising domestic demand in Mexico and a stronger peso later shifted the focus to the local market. Feeder cattle exports also saw changes following the November 2024 suspension, with new inspections to monitor cattle health and import viability altering trade flows...

ANALYSIS: Australia’s April 2025 Beef Exports Rebound 18.5% MoM as Cyclone Effects Fade

Australia exported 127,173 metric tons (mt) of beef in April 2025, up 18.5% month-on-month, as shipments rebounded sharply from a weather-disrupted March, according to data from the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF).

Shipments recovered following logistical interruptions caused by Ex-cyclone Alfred, during Australia’s most active tropical cyclone season in two decades. Port closures and road disruptions across Queensland, the country's key processing hub, had weighed heavily...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Harvest Numbers Continue to Fall Below Industry Norms

The 2025 turkey slaughter trajectory is shaping up to be one of the most historically limited starts in recent memory. USDA data shows federally inspected turkey headcounts for January through March averaging just over 14.5 million per month - an 18% drop from the 24-year average and nearly 19% below the 5-year norm. February was especially weak, with only 13.27 million turkeys harvested - the lowest total for that month in over two decades. Notably, each of the first three months of 2025 has tracked below the previous recorded historical low, firmly establishing the year’s limited supply footing...

ANALYSIS: Belly Primal Drives Resurgent Pork Carcass Value in April

According to the Urner Barry by Expana Pork Carcass Cutout Value Report, recent increases in carcass values have mitigated losses incurred since the beginning of April. Currently, weekly carcass values are holding steady at approximately year-over-year levels, exceeding the three-year average by 2.2%. April itself witnessed a modest rebound in overall values following a 3.1% decline during the first two weeks. While this initial drop was significant, it represented a continuation of a gradual downward trend that began in...

ANALYSIS: Squid Market Faces New Crosscurrents Amid Recently Imposed Tariffs

Squid continues its volatile trajectory into 2025, with many of the same challenges persisting and one significant development poised to reshape the broader market landscape.

Supply across most squid species and origins entering the U.S. remains difficult to navigate, a trend that has persisted for some time. Meanwhile, the market continues to show signs of disruption, with sourcing diversification, a long-standing advantage for this wild-caught species, now proving even more critical.

A major turning point came with the introduction of new presidential legislation on April 2, establishing “Liberation Day” tariffs. This policy imposed a blanket 10% tariff on all U.S. imports effective April 5, alongside elevated duties on 57 individual countries...

ANALYSIS: UK Lamb Export Market Update

The latest UK sheep meat export figures released by HM Revenue & Customs show that exports for February 2025 are 3.9% lower y-o-y at 6,165 tonnes. The cumulative January to February 2025 sheep meat exports are 2.2% lower than the same period in 2024.

In February, the top three export locations (France, Germany, Belgium) represent the majority of the decline, while the Netherlands had a 79% y-o-y increase. Despite export quantities declining in the first two months of February, export value is up and shows that there is good demand even with higher prices. Market participants reported last week that lamb exports have supported trade volumes and that prices from the Rungis market have held steady during April...

ANALYSIS: Cage-Free Market Strains Under Retail Price Pressure

Cage-free egg values continue to slide, diverging from the recent strength in negotiated values seen in the conventional market. Demand remains subdued nationwide, especially along the West Coast, where mandatory cage-free states like California, Oregon, and Washington are experiencing limited consumer interest amid elevated shelf prices.

With prices hovering at $5.50/dozen or higher among most retail chains out West, many consumers appear unwilling to pay up. While a few membership-club type stores offer more competitive pricing, their limited accessibility means most consumers don’t benefit. As a result, most retailers are ordering more conservatively, reducing the need to replenish inventory. This has led to a buildup in available offerings and added downward pressure to the market...

ANALYSIS: US Ribeyes & Tenderloins, Easter 2024 vs 2025

Using Circana retail scanner data, we analyzed total ribeye and tenderloin sales during the week leading up to Easter and Easter week itself to compare buying activity in 2024 (the Catholic Easter) and 2025 (the combined Orthodox and Catholic Easter). Both cuts posted strong year-over-year growth: ribeye sales rose 16%, increasing from roughly $579 million in 2024 to $670 million in 2025, while tenderloin sales climbed 17%, from $126 million to $147 million.

In 2025, the alignment of Orthodox and Catholic Easter on the same date created a more concentrated holiday demand window, likely boosting promotional activity and driving more focused consumer engagement. As a result, many shoppers consolidated purchases into a single peak buying period, contributing to the notable increase in total sales for both items...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Shortage Deepens: March Stocks Drop Below 2022 Levels

The total volume of turkey in cold storage has fallen below 2022 to reach a new all-time low in March. Since October 2024, there has been an ongoing trend of year-over-year (YoY) declines in the total amount of frozen turkey. This is largely attributed to low production figures and a relatively high number of disease-related issues. The total number of turkeys processed has been at an all-time low since November 2024, and this year's year-to-date (YTD) HPAI detections are at the second-highest value on record. Additionally, market discussions have suggested that avian metapneumovirus has been responsible for substantial increases in mortality...

ANALYSIS: March Chicken Inventory Trends Reflect Shifting Domestic and Export Dynamics

Cold storage inventories of chicken continue to diverge from 2023 levels, with March values up 3.1% year-over-year (YoY). Although there was a month-over-month (MoM) decrease from February to March, it was less significant than the typical five-year average decline. This overall trend was largely driven by the breast and breast meat category, which alone accounted for 32% of total chicken supplies in cold storage. Frozen holdings of breasts and breast meat were up 13.7% YoY and declined just 0.6% MoM—far less than the five-year average decrease of 4.2%.

This is particularly notable given the difficulty many domestic buyers faced in uncovering both...

ANALYSIS: US Egg Market Defies Seasonal Trends with Post-Easter Stability

The US egg market is showing surprising resilience in the wake of Easter, holding firm at price levels that are typically subject to sharp seasonal declines. Midwest large has remained unchanged at $3.77 per dozen for three consecutive weeks—a stark contrast to the five-year average, which shows April prices falling by roughly 30% during the same period. While there were signs of mounting pressure in the lead-up to the holiday, the market has since stabilized, buoyed by a modest improvement in retail demand and continued strength in cross-border movement to Canada...

ANALYSIS: EU Retail Egg Prices Level Off, but Remain Elevated

Retail egg prices across the EU appear to be levelling off, though they remain at elevated levels. According to Eurostat data, the price of graded shell eggs rose by 18.33% from €2.40/kg in week 1 to a peak of €2.84/kg in week 13.

Egg consumption typically rises during the cooler months when home cooking becomes more prevalent. Beyond seasonal factors, structural shifts in consumer behaviour have also contributed to the sustained demand. As other protein sources such as beef reach record-high prices—largely due...

ANALYSIS: US Red Meat Cold Storage Stocks Decline on Coasts MoM

According to the latest USDA cold storage report, boneless beef stocks declined in March compared to February, with the Middle Atlantic region down 6% and the Pacific region down 5%. Both areas serve as key entry points for imported beef, with cold storage typically the first stop after arrival at a port.

Despite the implementation of new tariffs, imported frozen beef remains competitively priced relative to domestic fresh product. This price advantage has influenced cold storage dynamics, as buyers draw down inventories for immediate...

ANALYSIS: Japan’s Q1 2025 Beef Imports Slump 17.5% to 92,915 mt

Japan’s total beef imports in Q1 2025 fell 17.5% year on year (YoY) to 92,915 metric tons (mt), a decline of 19,729 mt, according to the latest data from Japan’s Trade Statistics.

The sharpest drops were recorded from key suppliers including Australia and the United States (US), along with smaller reductions from Canada, New Zealand, and Mexico.

Imports from the US totaled 34,636 mt, down 14.9% YoY, or 6,048 mt on the back of its low cattle herd. Despite its production boom, shipments from Australia also fell...

ANALYSIS: Japan’s Beef Intake Plunges to 23-Year Low as Household Budgets Tighten

Japan's beef consumption dropped to a 23-year low in February 2025, with per capita intake falling to just 134 grams, according to data from the Agriculture & Livestock Industries Corporation (ALIC).

This marks the lowest level since November 2001, driven by inflationary pressures and a continued squeeze in household budgets. The weak yen has exacerbated the situation, pushing up the cost of imports, including food and energy, and fueling broader inflation.

Industry sources have long commented that budget-conscious consumers are turning to...

The Retail Rundown: Grocers Turn Up the Heat 

Grocers are turning up the heat in this week’s circulars, leaning into classic summer grilling staples—ribs, burgers, and barbecue fixings—signaling early excitement for the season even with Memorial Day still a few weeks away.

Seafood tops this week’s retail protein promotions, claiming roughly 28% of total ad space. Beef follows with 24.7%, trailed by pork at 23.1% and chicken at 20.2%. Turkey ads were slashed by half compared to last week, now accounting for just 3% of circular space.

Retailers are also highlighting festive favorites ahead of Cinco de Mayo. Ground beef in the 78–84% lean range averaged $4.89 per...

ANALYSIS: Cage-Free Price Dynamics Hint at Transition, but Market Remains Soft

The cage-free egg market continues to experience modest downward pressure this week, although a shift in negotiated values is beginning to take shape.

Since late February, cage-free quotations have been on the decline, falling by more than 50% from a record high of $9.86/dozen to $4.92/dozen as of Thursday. This decline has been predominantly driven by a significant reduction in consumer demand, influenced by price sensitivity among shoppers.

At the market’s peak, Circana scanner data reported the average...

ANALYSIS: New Zealand’s Q1 2025 Beef Exports Rises 1.3% YoY to 134,240 mt

New Zealand’s beef exports in the first quarter of 2025 rose 1.3% year-on-year (YoY) to 134,240 metric tons, according to the latest data from Stats NZ.

Stronger volumes to key markets including the United States, Canada, Korea, Taiwan, and the United Kingdom supported the quarterly gain. Exports to China and Japan pulled back, but total shipments still edged up by 1,781 mt.

In the first quarter of 2025, the US cemented its position as New Zealand’s top beef market, taking...

ANALYSIS: 2025 YTD Turkey Poult Placements Down 4.0%: Hen Supply Hit Hardest

Year-to-date (YTD) poult placements in 2025 hover an average of 4.0% below the 5-year average. This is a continuation of the ongoing trend of below-average supplies. While HPAI cases are less frequent and the new avian metapneumovirus vaccines are starting to be implemented, the losses sustained by the industry leave a lasting impact that is not quickly overcome. For these reasons, hatcheries only have so many eggs they can set, and growers are also restricted on the number of birds...

ANALYSIS: US Pork Production Trails 2024 Amid Herd Contraction, Disease, and Export Uncertainty

Year-to-date (YTD) total pork production volumes for 2025 are trending 0.4% below 2024, as a shrinking breeding herd and disease outbreaks have contributed to reduced output. The USDA’s latest Hogs and Pigs report revealed a five-year low in both breeding inventory (5.98 million head) and farrowing sows (2.9 million head), directly impacting the number of pigs available for slaughter.

While the market hog inventory stands at 68.5 million head—down just 0.3% year-over-year—this is largely offset by...

ANALYSIS: Broiler Production Outlook Brings Expectation of Gains

As we approach the tail end of April, protein market participants are weighing a number of variables as they attempt to hone their expectations for the road which lies ahead. For stakeholders in the chicken sector, concerns around disease, low hatchability, and live weights remain front and center.

Despite persistent uncertainty, the second-quarter broiler production expectations are projected to post the largest year-over-year (YoY) increase among all of the major protein categories. According to the Livestock, Dairy, & Poultry Outlook, the latest Q2 forecast stands...

The Retail Rundown: Post-Easter Pause Sets Stage for Protein Push

With Easter now in the rearview, retailers will largely tread water, positioning themselves for a seasonal surge in demand ahead of the start of summer.

Grilling demand is beginning to build toward a Memorial Day crescendo, prompting grocers to build inventory and plan aggressive promotions to jumpstart the season. 

But first up is Cinco de Mayo. While it's a smaller holiday, it can still drive foot traffic. Proteins like pork, steak, and chicken are expected to see solid movement as shoppers make tacos, burritos, enchiladas, and other festive fare...

ANALYSIS: EU Egg Product Market Enters Spring with Mixed Signals

As the market returns from the Easter break, a cautious sentiment continues to shape the industrial egg sector. Demand remained subdued in the lead-up to the holidays, with buyers showing strong resistance to elevated asking prices and instead pushing for more favourable terms. Consequently, shell egg prices continued
their downward trend in the week heading into Easter...

ANALYSIS: China’s Q1 2025 Beef Imports Falls 11.6% YoY to 681,607 mt

China's total beef imports for the first quarter of the 2025 calendar year plunged to 681,607 metric tons (mt), according to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC).

Inbound shipments fell by 11.6% year-on-year (YoY), the 89,662 mt decline was led by reduced volumes from Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia, Uruguay and New Zealand. However, strong volumes from the United States (US) and Australia helped cushion the overall decline.

Supply from South America Slides

Volumes from China’s...

ANALYSIS: Turkey HPAI Update - Week of 4/6/25

Outbreak Summary

On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, approximately 1.67 million turkeys have been lost to HPAI in 2025. This is up 499% year-over-year (YoY) and is down 56% from 2022 when the outbreak began. Of the turkeys impacted this year, 3% have been commercial breeder hens, 1% have been commercial breeder replacement hens, and 96% have been commercial meat birds. There have been 11 unique states impacted which is the largest YTD value since the start of the outbreak, up 83% YoY and up...

ANALYSIS: Cage-Free Market Facing Pressure Despite Easter 

Wholesale cage-free egg prices continue to decline, with a 34ct drop recorded over the past seven days. This ongoing slide comes during Easter—typically a key seasonal driver for the category—but this year, elevated pricing and minimal promotional activity have significantly dampened consumer interest.

Demand has softened over the past seven weeks, as shelf prices often hovering at or above $5.00/dozen have prompted more cautious shopping behavior. In response, most retailers have scaled back orders to match slower movement, resulting in a buildup of inventory in...