ANALYSIS: Ample Supply and Slow Demand Push the US Pork Cutout to a 52-Week Low

Pork cutout value has fallen to a 52-week low, with weakness across most major cuts. Hams, loins, butts, and bellies together make up about three-quarters of the cutout. 23/27 bone-in hams have been hit hardest, down roughly 38% YOY, as fully adequate supplies outpace domestic and export demand. A weaker Mexican peso has also made US pork more expensive for Mexican buyers, adding pressure to an important export market.

ANALYSIS: Demand Strength Pushes Pork Cutout Beyond Seasonal Expectation

The Expana pork carcass cutout began the year tracking within a typical seasonal range through Q1, generally moving in line with 2024 and 2025, while still holding above those prior-year levels. However, momentum began to build in late Q1 into early Q2, as values continued to firm rather than flattening in line with historical patterns.

By April, the cutout had moved above 2024 levels and into the upper end of the three-year range, signaling stronger underlying support than seasonality alone would...

ANALYSIS: What’s Driving the Expana Pork Cutout Higher?

The Expana pork carcass cutout value has moved higher in recent weeks, increasing 1.1% last week. Values have trended upward since early February, with the cutout moving above 2025 levels during the week of February 23 and currently navigating at three-year highs for the month of March. Over that period through the end of last week, the weekly cutout value advanced 3.2% and currently stands 8.6% above the three-year average...

ANALYSIS: December Pork Cutout Reaches Record Level on Tight Supply, Holiday Demand

The Expana Pork Carcass Cutout value is tracking at a record high for December based on data dating to 2003. The current weekly value, which has followed a bullish trend throughout December, is 4.2% above the same time last year and 22.1% higher than the all-time average back to 2003.

The total cutout had been on a gradual decline since early September, falling 17.8% through the third week of November, before values began to rebound into December as supply...

ANALYSIS: Fall Pork Supply Review - Slaughter Strength and Cutout Reduction

The weekly carcass cutout shows a clear and uninterrupted decline beginning in early September and extending through Friday’s close on 11/21/25, with values retracing steadily from a late-summer rally, which saw the cutout at 3-year highs, marking the seasonal decline for 2025 commencing much later than in previous years. Since the first week of September, the downturn has been gradual but persistent, shaped by fully adequate product availability, softer domestic demand, and a measured export pull that has not generated the counter-seasonal lift typically observed during this timeframe...