Deep Global Recession May Start in Spring 2025, Warns Expana

The global economy today shows some parallels to past pre-recession periods. A world PMI below 50, elevated asset prices, for instance, are indicators of a slowdown in business activity.  

Furthermore, rising tariffs, protectionist policies, or geopolitical disruptions could exacerbate trade slowdowns. Consumer spending is also paramount since it accounts for a significant portion of GDP. Monitoring retail sales, credit card usage, and savings rates will be critical.   

With the global economy facing a myriad of challenges and uncertainties, the likelihood of a recession...

2024 Holiday Spending Expected to Reach New Record

Consumer spending on the winter holidays is expected to reach a record $902 per person on average across gifts, food, decorations and other seasonal items, according to the National Retail Federation’s latest consumer survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics. The amount is about $25 per person more than last year’s figure and $16 higher than the previous record set in 2019.

“The winter holidays are a treasured time for Americans, and they are prioritizing spending on family this holiday season,” NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine...

Cooking at Home Increases Demand for Refrigerated Transportation

As more consumers pack their grocery carts with fall staples like apples, changing consumer habits around meals and economic pressures are increasing the need for refrigerated shipping. In fact, consumer demand for refrigerated products has continually increased since 2020.

According to the National Frozen & Refrigerated Foods Association (NFRA) and its data platform Unify/IRI, refrigeration sales have increased by 32% over the past five years, and nearly 64% of adults say they save money or control their budget by eating at home...

Consumer Emphasis on Value and Need-Based Spending Continues in August,Reports Circana

Final wave of back-to-school spending is delayed, but there are opportunities to disrupt evolving consumer behavior and future shopping seasons

Traditional retail milestones, like the back-to-school shopping season, are being reshaped by changing consumer behavior, according to Circana™, a leading advisor on the complexity of consumer behavior. During the four weeks ending August 31, 2024, total U.S. retail sales revenue across the combined view of discretionary general merchandise and consumer packaged goods (CPG) declined 1% when compared...

July Retail Sales Reveal a Summer Vacation From Discretionary Spending, Reports Circana

Total U.S. retail sales across the combined view of discretionary general merchandise and consumer packaged goods (CPG) continued on the path toward a state of equilibrium in July. During the four weeks ending August 3, 2024, overall sales revenue remained level with the same four weeks last year, and unit demand declined 1%. While both food and beverage and non-edible CPG sales revenue increased 1%, with generally flat year-over-year unit performance, discretionary sales remained challenged, with a 3% decline in dollars and a 2%...

Reaching the Consumer: New Research Helps Identify the Future Pork Consumer

Research shows pork consumption is declining across every generation and is at risk of becoming a protein of the past. Baby Boomers have been the primary consumers of fresh pork and they are aging out. Gen Z and Millennials don’t buy fresh pork at the same rate as older generations. The good news is the decline in pork sales is reversible. The pork industry needs to unite around a common goal of making pork relevant to younger consumers.

Following one of the worst years of profitability for pork producers...

Consumers Remain ‘Willing to Spend’ Even as Growth Slows

Shoppers are still willing to buy even as smaller job and wage gains and high interest rates are slowing the growth of consumer spending, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said today.

“U.S. economic growth for the remainder of this year will depend on several factors but particularly the pace of job growth, inflation and what actions will be taken by the Federal Reserve,” Kleinhenz said. “The good news is that the economy is growing, inflation is moderating, and overall fundamentals look fine as increased consumer spending supports underlying momentum.”...

Specialty Food Association Releases New Research, Understanding the Real Value of Specialty Foods 

The Specialty Food Association (SFA) has released a second edition of its groundbreaking research report, Understanding the Real Value of Specialty Foods. Built on interviews with 1,000 shoppers, 100 retailers, and other data points, the new report outlines the positive impact of specialty products on retailer profitability and shopper loyalty, impact that has only increased in importance since the first edition came out in 2014.

Describing the current moment as "an era of specialty food prominence," the report notes that sales of specialty products have...

2024 U.S. Grocery Shopper Trends Series: How Consumers Are Finding Value at the Grocery Store, FMI

Shoppers enjoy food shopping as much as ever, according to the latest annual survey by FMI – The Food Industry Association, conducted by The Hartman Group. The analysis kicking off this 2024 series, U.S. Grocery Shopper Trends: Finding Value, provides a crucial snapshot of consumer behavior and sentiment in the most frequently purchased consumer category amid ongoing concerns about the impact of inflation on the cost of groceries.

While consumer concerns about food inflation persist, FMI’s newly launched U.S. Grocery Shopper Sentiment Index, which accounts...

First Quarter Results Show Economy is Slowing but ‘Remains Resilient’

Economic growth slowed during the first three months of the year, but consumers are still spending more than last year, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said today.

“The U.S. economy lost some spring in its step during the first quarter as the pace of growth declined, and the downshift came with an unexpected bout of inflation,” Kleinhenz said, noting that prices for services are still increasing even as prices for goods level off. “But even with signs that the economic expansion is decelerating, the economy remains resilient...

CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor Shows Retail Sales Grew in March Amid Wage Gains and Easing Inflation 

Retail sales grew at a steady pace in March, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, released today by the National Retail Federation.

“As inflation for goods levels off, March’s data demonstrates steady spending by value-focused consumers who continue to benefit from a strong labor market and real wage gains,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “In this highly competitive market, retailers are having to keep prices as low as possible to meet the demand of...