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ANALYSIS: Turkey Supply Constraints Drive Market Fundamentals
As the industry enters the final stretch of the year, market participants are watching production metrics closely to assess how 2025 ultimately unfolded. Year-to-date (YTD) data continues to affirm a structurally constrained supply environment, defined by persistent headcount erosion only partially offset by elevated live weights. These dynamics remain central to the challenges confronting both buyers and sellers, with implications that increasingly appear poised to carry into the new year.
Cumulative turkey headcount has fallen 11.3% from 2020 levels and 2.4% from a year ago, with 2025 totals landing at 170.2 million, a new historical low. The accelerating year-over-year (YOY) decline...
ANALYSIS: Protein Production Outlook for Q3
The USDA is forecasting a mixed outlook for protein production in Q3, with significant declines expected in beef and turkey, while pork and broiler output remain steady or edge higher. Beef production is projected to fall sharply year-over-year (YOY), down 5.4% from 6.78 billion pounds in Q3 2024 to 6.42 billion pounds in Q3 2025. This reflects a tightening cattle supply pipeline, a trend that has persisted throughout much of the year and continues to pressure beef availability.
Turkey output is also forecast to contract, slipping 4.5% YOY to...
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