ANALYSIS: US Government Shutdown Effects at the Retail Level for Coarse Grinds

Coarse grinds are an item that people in the SNAP program tend to favor due to their affordability within the beef complex. During the government shutdown, when SNAP went unfunded and then eventually received partial funding, market participants began to wonder what effect this would have on coarse grinds at the retail level.

When comparing the shutdown period to the same time last year, distribution for 70-77% lean and 78-84% lean both experienced decreases. Many in the market anticipated this because the lower lean percentages are the more popular blends within the grinds...

The Retail Rundown: A Season of Plenty, Except for Turkey

For retailers, this year’s holiday season is shaping up to be one of plenty. The National Retail Federation (NRF) projects November and December sales to surpass $1 trillion for the first time, underscoring consumers’ continued spending power.

“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.

While foodservice outlets are poised to capture consumer traffic on hectic days, retail prepared foods and frozen entrées are well-positioned to compete for at-home dining occasions as shoppers seek convenient, time-saving meal solutions...

Farm Bureau Applauds Progress to End Shutdown

American Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall today applauded the Senate vote to end the government shutdown and urged the House to act quickly.

"Farm Bureau commends the Senate for voting to end the government shutdown, ensuring that farmers and ranchers can continue to rely on critical USDA services and disaster relief to keep their farms running and also ensure Americans maintain access to food assistance programs...

The Retail Rundown: Turkey Promotions Climb as Holiday Demand Takes Hold

Turkey ads now make up nearly 4% of protein features this week and are on pace to capture a larger share next week as seasonal demand gathers momentum. Beef holds 23.8% of ad space, pork accounts for 22.8%, and chicken eased to 19%—down one point from last week. Eggs have 3% of this week’s buying opportunities, up one point compared to the week prior.

Within the turkey category, ads for frozen whole birds and fresh or frozen parts are evenly split, each accounting for 28% of turkey features...

CME Feeder Cattle Plunge Further, Hit Expanded Daily Limits

The cattle complex on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is deepening its steep losses in early Monday trading, extending Friday’s sharp sell-off that saw all but the nearby live cattle contract end at limit-down.

As of 9:50 a.m. ET, live cattle futures are sliding between $4.00 and $7.70, while most feeder contracts are hitting the expanded daily limit.

Both live ($10.75) and feeder cattle ($13.75) futures will trade under expanded limits today.

The recent downturn likely reflects long liquidation across both live and feeder futures markets as traders digest a range of developments, including the Trump administration’s plan to increase imports...