NRF Forecasts 4.4% Annual Retail Sales Growth with New Economic Model

The National Retail Federation today forecast that retail sales in 2026 will grow by 4.4% over 2025 to $5.6 trillion, based on a newly enhanced forecasting approach developed in partnership with Oxford Economics, one of the world’s leading independent economic advisory firms. The announcement was made during NRF’s sixth annual State of Retail & the Consumer virtual event, which examines the health of American consumers and the retail industry.

“Consumer spending was a steady and reliable engine of growth in 2025, even as broader economic conditions fluctuated,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said...

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