ANALYSIS: US Tariffs could Shift Export Gains Against Rising Costs for Brazil

President Trump’s trade war could reshape trade flows by driving countries like Mexico and China toward Brazil or forcing them to negotiate with the US in an attempt to avoid tariffs. Simultaneously, a strong USD would likely lead to inflation in Brazil by increasing import costs and boosting export volumes, leading to higher domestic prices in Brazil.

Tariffs will either force buyers closer to Brazil or to negotiate with the US. Should a new wave of tariffs lead to a decrease in the competitiveness of...

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