ANALYSIS: Low US Slaughter Drives New Seasonal Pattern in Chuck Rolls

The Choice Chuck Roll market experienced an unusually early and aggressive rally in 2025, with prices climbing sharply from late July through early September, well ahead of the typical seasonal upturn seen in late August or early October. This year’s rally peaked more than 60% above early-summer lows, driven by strong forward buying and limited spot market availability as packers operated under reduced slaughter schedules.

Weekly federally inspected slaughter has consistently run below year-ago levels, most recently totaling 547,000 head, the lowest for this...

ANALYSIS: A 2021 Pattern Emerges for the US Choice Cutout in 2025

Since June, Expana's Choice cutout has shown decreases of 8–10% and gains of 9–13%. The last time values fluctuated this much during the same time frame was in 2021, when they declined by roughly 16% and increased by 25%. While the swings in 2021 were more volatile, the overall pattern remains similar, even when comparing data going back to January. In 2021, there was about a 55% uptick from January to June, whereas in 2025, the same period saw a 24% rise. Again, although the degree of volatility differs, the pattern is comparable.

Current sentiment around the cutout points to steadiness with slightly...

ANALYSIS: Jumbo Boneless Breast Market Ends Q3 on a Rollercoaster of Prices

Jumbo boneless breast meat has had a rollercoaster of a year so far in the chicken market. Quotations started off the year only ten cents higher than the 5-year average, but by mid-April were more than $1.00 over the 5-year average and were only $0.28 or 9.3% under the seasonal high.

This was largely attributed to many participants in the fast-food industry building up large inventories of chicken in order to run chicken promotions later in the year as opposed to beef. At the same time, the industry was struggling with disease-related bird losses due to HPAI and avian metapneumovirus...

The Retail Rundown: Retail Promotions Pivot Toward Baking and Comfort Foods

By mid-October, grocery retailers are shifting their marketing focus toward fall comfort meals, baking, and holiday preparation.

Typically, retail egg sales see a seasonal lift as more consumers cook hot breakfasts at home. The onset of baking season further boosts demand, with more eggs being used in breads, pies, pastries, and other seasonal favorites.

In the shell egg market, Expana reports a mixed retail landscape—some retailers are seeing stronger demand as cooler weather sets in, while others note slower movement following lackluster promotional outcomes...

ANALYSIS: Fresh 90s Ranges Drop Into Competition With Imported 90% Items

Friday’s closing report for domestic boneless beef encountered a range of $386-428/cwt, while imported blend cow 90% from Australia and New Zealand ticked upward to $386-390/cwt bringing the two within similar ranges. While the range remained wide for fresh product, the low side signaled a drop that could cause some slight demand shift toward domestic material while both remain in similar ranges.  

In the US, the fall cow run has ramped up as some participants have begun to send more cows...

NTF Statement on the Government Shutdown

The National Turkey Federation (NTF) released the following statement on the United States government shutdown: 

“Mexico and Canada are key export markets for the U.S. turkey industry. The USMCA will help to ensure that America’s turkey growers and processors have fair access to these markets and takes important steps to stabilize the U.S.’s trade relationship with our neighbors. The agreement will result in a 29 percent increase in U.S. exports to Canada. Robust export markets are vital in growing the turkey industry. When given the chance to compete head-to-head on price and quality, U.S. turkey producers have shown their ability to respond in providing the world with wholesome, delicious turkey...

ANALYSIS: EU Egg Market Tightens Amid Widespread Bird Flu Outbreaks

The EU egg market remains under pressure, with overall availability described as limited, as recent bird flu outbreaks continue to unsettle sentiment and constrain supply. In Spain, concerns have intensified following the detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) at a layer hen farm housing 727,000 birds. The facility was already under surveillance after a previous case was reported in the same area last month...

ANALYSIS: HPAI Turkey Update — Week of October 5, 2025

Outbreak summary

On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, approximately 2.82 million turkeys have been lost to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in 2025. That is up 115% year-over-year (YOY) and down 62% from 2022, when the outbreak began. Of the turkeys impacted this year, 3% have been commercial breeder hens, 1% have been commercial breeder replacement hens, and 96% have been commercial meat birds. Thirteen states have reported unique outbreaks YTD, one fewer than the largest YTD value since the start of the...

China’s Hog Prices Fall to Yearly Low as Industry Eyes Capacity Cuts

China’s hog prices have fallen to their lowest level this year despite the usual boost seen during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, 21st Century Business Herald, a Chinese state-owned media outlet, reported. 

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the national average live hog price was down 2.8% from the previous week and 29.5% year-on-year during the first week of October. Prices fell across all 30 monitored provinces. Since mid-July, hog prices have dropped...

Women in Food and Agriculture Summit 2026 to Unite Industry Leaders

Expana, the world’s largest agrifood market intelligence provider, is proud to announce the return of the Women in Food and Agriculture (WFA) Summit, taking place on Tuesday, February 24, 2026 at the Okura Hotel in Amsterdam. 

Since 2019 this highly anticipated global event has brought together leaders, innovators and up and coming executives from across agrifood value chains for a day of inspiration, empowerment and real-world learning. With a dynamic program of keynotes, workshops and networking, the WFA Summit is designed to deliver actionable content

Walmart Partners with OpenAI to Create AI-First Shopping Experiences

Walmart is ushering in the next generation of retail by combining its huge assortment, everyday low prices and delivery speed with the power of AI. Today, the company announced a new partnership with OpenAI that will start with allowing customers and members to soon shop Walmart through ChatGPT using Instant Checkout. Whether planning meals, restocking household essentials, or finding something new, customers can simply chat and buy, and Walmart will handle the rest.

“For many years now, eCommerce shopping experiences have consisted...

Inside QDOBA's Growth Strategy with New CMO Jon Burke

Expana recently had the chance to catch up with Jon Burke, the newly promoted Chief Marketing Officer (CMO) of QDOBA.  He offered a behind-the-scenes look at what’s next for the rapidly expanding restaurant chain. With over 825 stores across the United States and Puerto Rico and a pipeline of 600 more, QDOBA is gearing up for its first national marketing campaign. 

In the announcement about this promotion, CEO John Cywinkski said, "Jon is a trusted and respected leader who has earned this opportunity...

Morliny Foods' Acquisition of the Wolf Group

Morliny Foods Holding Limited (UK) today announced the acquisition of Wolf Group, a leading German producer of premium sausages, convenience, and ready meals. This strategic transaction marks a significant step in Morliny Foods' European expansion, strengthening its position in one of the continent's largest consumer markets for packaged meats and convenience products. The acquisition aligned with Morliny Foods' strategy to grow in value-added packaged meat categories across Europe.

The transaction also opens opportunities for enhanced access to German distribution channels for Morliny Foods' portfolio products, serving as a solid foundation for sustainable growth in the German and wider European markets...

Expana will be observing the Indigenous Peoples’ Day holiday on Monday, October 13

Expana is observing Indigenous Peoples’ Day on Monday, October 13, and US offices will be closed.

This will impact the publication of some Expana Benchmark Prices and daily reports (red meat, poultry, eggs) will not be published. Our weekly report, Mexican Beef, Export and Domestic Markets, was published today- Friday, October 10.

Our regular publishing schedule will resume on October 14, 2025. See the full details of the Expana publishing schedule here.

ANALYSIS: Cage-Free Market Steadies as Retail and Bird Flu Spur Renewed Buying

The cage-free market has held steady this week, though underlying momentum has begun to build following improved retail demand and renewed bird-flu detections that prompted a return of buyer engagement...

Wendy’s Unveils “Project Fresh” to Drive Growth and Elevate Brand Value

Looking to enhance its brand after a disappointing valuation, The Wendy's Company has unveiled Project Fresh. According to the Board of Directors, this strategic plan is designed to accelerate profitability and enhance shareholder value.

"Wendy's Board of Directors and management team are dissatisfied with the current valuation of the Company and have been working to put the Company on the right path to create value for our franchisees, employees and shareholders," said Chairman of the Board, Art Winkleblack. "Execution is underway and we are confident that Project F

Navigating the Trump Tariff Turbulence: A Comprehensive Timeline

US President Donald Trump and his administration have paused reciprocal tariffs on most countries.

“Based on the lack of respect that China has shown... I am hereby raising the [tariff] charged to China by the [USA] to 125%, effective immediately,” wrote Trump on Truth Social at 1:18 pm ET. 

It’s not clear if this 125% is in addition to the 20% imposed on Chinese imports to the US. In early March, Trump noted that he would add another 10% tariff on Chinese goods...